bluewave Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: think Friday is the last widespread 80 degree day? It looks like the 80s could last into Saturday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly cloudy and milder. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 70° Newark: 74° Philadelphia: 74° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 66.2°; 15-Year: 67.3° Newark: 30-Year: 67.8°; 15-Year: 69.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 69.0°; 15-Year: 70.0° A generally warmer than normal regime will continue into the weekend before a strong cold moves across the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Did not expect to have overcast and drizzle this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Top 10 warmest first 10 days of October for several of our stations. Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 10 Missing Count 1 2007-10-10 68.9 0 2 2018-10-10 67.7 0 3 2017-10-10 67.1 0 4 2005-10-10 66.2 0 5 2013-10-10 65.9 0 6 2021-10-10 64.6 0 7 2002-10-10 64.4 0 8 2020-10-10 62.0 0 9 2019-10-10 61.8 0 10 2016-10-10 61.5 2 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 10 Missing Count 1 2007-10-10 68.5 0 2 2018-10-10 68.0 0 3 1990-10-10 66.7 0 4 2017-10-10 66.6 0 5 2013-10-10 65.6 0 6 2005-10-10 65.5 0 7 2021-10-10 63.7 0 8 2002-10-10 63.3 0 9 1995-10-10 63.2 0 10 1997-10-10 63.0 0 - 1983-10-10 63.0 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 10 Missing Count 1 1959-10-10 72.4 0 2 2007-10-10 71.8 0 3 2018-10-10 69.6 0 4 2017-10-10 69.5 0 5 1990-10-10 68.8 0 6 1941-10-10 68.5 0 7 2013-10-10 67.2 0 8 2021-10-10 66.9 0 9 1973-10-10 66.7 0 10 1949-10-10 66.4 0 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Pesty clouds for another day or half day then onto late season warmth Tue (10/12) through Sat (10/17) ahead of strong cold front. Coolest lows of the season Sun (10/18) - Tue and Wed(10/21). Warmup by mid next week and overall warmer pattern beyond with brief cooldowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: It looks like the 80s could last into Saturday. Thu - Sat (depending on timing of front/clouds) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Let us remember for future non-automatic default to the EC/EPS as best.: GFS/GEFS prevailed as far superior to the EC/GGEM op runs in their greater than 3 day outlooks for this past weekends rain/drizzle with the main rain just a little offshore. Two-day CoCoRaHs weekend summary attached and for those who want to view it more clearly-just click the image. Nothing precip-wise/damaging wind seems threadablefor a while. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 54 minutes ago, wdrag said: Let us remember for future non-automatic default to the EC/EPS as best.: GFS/GEFS prevailed as far superior to the EC/GGEM op runs in their greater than 3 day outlooks for this past weekends rain/drizzle with the main rain just a little offshore. Walt, do you know how the new Euro that was in parallel did? Looks like the upgrade tomorrow will be the biggest in a long time. It’s the first step toward the future convection permitting 4 to 5 km resolution. We are pleased to confirm the operational implementation of IFS Cycle 47r3 with the 06 UTC run, 12 October 2021 The upgrade will bring improvements to the assimilation and observations usage and a significantly improved physical basis for moist processes, necessary to facilitate further development of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and future application at convection-permitting resolutions. The release candidate phase has been running in near real-time since 14 September. In a recent Webinar we explained the scientific background, its meteorological impact, and some new and revised products. Forecast users are recommended to read "47r3 Impact on Surface Weather representation", highlighting the changes with 47r3 in the characteristics of many frequently used forecast fields and products. We would also like to remind you of a change to the “Master Tables Version Number”, affecting allparameters in GRIB 2, and encourage you to check your data processing with the test data provided as soon as possible ahead of implementation. Detailed information can be found on the 47r3 implementation page. Please “watch” the page to get notified about further updates. https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/47r3+Impact+on+Surface+Weather+representation IFS cycle 47r3 is delivering noteworthy changes in the characteristics of many of the forecast fields (such as precipitation) and forecast products regularly used by forecasters and others. These changes are probably more substantial, as a whole, than anything we have seen with any ECMWF cycle in the last 10 years. This page aims to highlight the key differences. It is common forecaster practice to adjust for perceived/known biases or weaknesses in model behaviour, and given the new characteristics application of these ("old") corrections to output from the new cycle may no longer be appropriate. Some such corrections can be discarded or toned down; other new ones may need to be introduced. Most of the changes with 47r3 are attributable to the new "Moist Physics" package, affecting cloud and precipitation in particular. However changes to the visibility and gust diagnostics will also have a substantial impact on occasion. Impacts are listed below, by parameter, with examples generally comparing output from cycle 47r2 (operational until 12 October 2021) and contiguous non-operational runs of 47r3 (operational from 12 October 2021). Unless stated otherwise examples are from HRES. "NEW CYCLE" on plots below means 47r3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Top 10 warmest first 10 days of October for several of our stations. Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 10 Missing Count 1 2007-10-10 68.9 0 2 2018-10-10 67.7 0 3 2017-10-10 67.1 0 4 2005-10-10 66.2 0 5 2013-10-10 65.9 0 6 2021-10-10 64.6 0 7 2002-10-10 64.4 0 8 2020-10-10 62.0 0 9 2019-10-10 61.8 0 10 2016-10-10 61.5 2 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 10 Missing Count 1 2007-10-10 68.5 0 2 2018-10-10 68.0 0 3 1990-10-10 66.7 0 4 2017-10-10 66.6 0 5 2013-10-10 65.6 0 6 2005-10-10 65.5 0 7 2021-10-10 63.7 0 8 2002-10-10 63.3 0 9 1995-10-10 63.2 0 10 1997-10-10 63.0 0 - 1983-10-10 63.0 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 10 Missing Count 1 1959-10-10 72.4 0 2 2007-10-10 71.8 0 3 2018-10-10 69.6 0 4 2017-10-10 69.5 0 5 1990-10-10 68.8 0 6 1941-10-10 68.5 0 7 2013-10-10 67.2 0 8 2021-10-10 66.9 0 9 1973-10-10 66.7 0 10 1949-10-10 66.4 0 Is this the warmest even for JFK which reached 90 on 10/9/90 and 95 on 10/2 a few years ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 this is the best we can do behind fall cold fronts now 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 After the near record warmth this week, the EPS has closer to normal temperatures next week. This means NYC may finally drop below 50°. But it will be among the latest first 40s on record. Since the EPO remains very positive, temperature departures rebound for the last week of October. Oct 11-18 Oct 18-25 Oct 25-31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 The current 6 day period is a throwback to the last day of summer time frame. I already have reached 75* here today with the unexpected additional sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 whenever we get sun we go past the forecast high 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Walt, do you know how the new Euro that was in parallel did? Looks like the upgrade tomorrow will be the biggest in a long time. It’s the first step toward the future convection permitting 4 to 5 km resolution. We are pleased to confirm the operational implementation of IFS Cycle 47r3 with the 06 UTC run, 12 October 2021 The upgrade will bring improvements to the assimilation and observations usage and a significantly improved physical basis for moist processes, necessary to facilitate further development of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and future application at convection-permitting resolutions. The release candidate phase has been running in near real-time since 14 September. In a recent Webinar we explained the scientific background, its meteorological impact, and some new and revised products. Forecast users are recommended to read "47r3 Impact on Surface Weather representation", highlighting the changes with 47r3 in the characteristics of many frequently used forecast fields and products. We would also like to remind you of a change to the “Master Tables Version Number”, affecting allparameters in GRIB 2, and encourage you to check your data processing with the test data provided as soon as possible ahead of implementation. Detailed information can be found on the 47r3 implementation page. Please “watch” the page to get notified about further updates. https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/47r3+Impact+on+Surface+Weather+representation IFS cycle 47r3 is delivering noteworthy changes in the characteristics of many of the forecast fields (such as precipitation) and forecast products regularly used by forecasters and others. These changes are probably more substantial, as a whole, than anything we have seen with any ECMWF cycle in the last 10 years. This page aims to highlight the key differences. It is common forecaster practice to adjust for perceived/known biases or weaknesses in model behaviour, and given the new characteristics application of these ("old") corrections to output from the new cycle may no longer be appropriate. Some such corrections can be discarded or toned down; other new ones may need to be introduced. Most of the changes with 47r3 are attributable to the new "Moist Physics" package, affecting cloud and precipitation in particular. However changes to the visibility and gust diagnostics will also have a substantial impact on occasion. Impacts are listed below, by parameter, with examples generally comparing output from cycle 47r2 (operational until 12 October 2021) and contiguous non-operational runs of 47r3 (operational from 12 October 2021). Unless stated otherwise examples are from HRES. "NEW CYCLE" on plots below means 47r3. Have no access. Monitoring for a marginal wind event Sat aft or night but far too early. Hopefully someone else answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 8 minutes ago, forkyfork said: whenever we get sun we go past the forecast high why cant we have that happen in the summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 11, 2021 Author Share Posted October 11, 2021 28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: why cant we have that happen in the summer? It does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 It looks like some of the inland areas could finally get a frost next week. A little late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Drier air moved into the region allowing for partly sunny skies and mild readings in the 70s. Newark reached 70° for the 165th time this year. As a result, 2021 is tied for 11th place with 1990 and 2017. Tomorrow will likely be a similar day. Sunshine and much above normal temperatures are likely from mid-week into the start of the weekend. Overall, the generally warm regime will continue into weekend before a strong cold front ushers in cooler readings. In the wake of the frontal passage, readings will return to near normal levels. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around October 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely yield to La Niña conditions later this month. The SOI was +2.32 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.038 today. On October 9 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.701 (RMM). The October 8-adjusted amplitude was 2.024 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.8° (3.9° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 57 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It does the temps level off here around noon - 1 pm, the exception is when we have dry downsloping winds on sunny days, when they overperform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 While we have mild 70s, parts of the west are shivering. The Lake Tahoe area can expect temperatures in the teens tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 27 minutes ago, lee59 said: While we have mild 70s, parts of the west are shivering. The Lake Tahoe area can expect temperatures in the teens tonight. They’ve had lake effect snow showers all day too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 80s for Halloween? Spooky! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 On the positive side of things the extension of the growing season is pretty cool. M vegetable gardens are still producing nicely. Annuals stay healthy now well into November. Assuming we do not have one of those shock Arctic outbreaks. We went from full growing season to the teens in 18/19. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly cloudy and milder. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 69° Newark: 73° Philadelphia: 72° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 65.8°; 15-Year: 66.9° Newark: 30-Year: 67.4°; 15-Year: 68.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 68.7°; 15-Year: 69.6° A generally warmer than normal regime will continue into the weekend before a strong cold moves across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 68degs.(61/75), or +8. Month to date is 65.2[+3.7]. Could be 66.3[+5.6] by the 20th. Reached 77 here yesterday at 4:45pm. Today: 73-76, e. wind, clouds. Rain, up to 1" this weekend----then no more 70's?. The GEFs Ext. has Oct. 18-Nov.03 as still with a small chance at 70. Then from Nov.4-15 no chance at 70 and the Control hits near 32* on Nov. 09th., for the first time this season. 64*(85%RH) here at 6am. 70* at Noon. 72* at 3pm. Only reached 73* around 5pm, despite good sun most of the PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 Parts of Northern New England are on track for their latest first freeze on record. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 Euro is going to have another upgrade today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: On the positive side of things the extension of the growing season is pretty cool. M vegetable gardens are still producing nicely. Annuals stay healthy now well into November. Assuming we do not have one of those shock Arctic outbreaks. We went from full growing season to the teens in 18/19. An arctic shock is a definite possibility. We've seen an increase in brief Arctic pockets come and go. Something like that in 1st half of November wouldn't surprise me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: An arctic shock is a definite possibility. We've seen an increase in brief Arctic pockets come and go. Something like that in 1st half of November wouldn't surprise me. Weeklies have an abrupt pattern change in November. Let's see if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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