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October 2021


Stormlover74
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39 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Good point about the extreme warmth off New Foundland possibly causing that weird NAO/AO blocking last winter. As far as how this all plays out this winter is anyone’s guess. Big differences for this coming winter as you pointed out, are the 2nd year, coupled Niña and strong -PDO/-PMM. And yea, that equatorial warmth in the Atlantic is staggering 

Cold pool in GOA plus moderate La Niña, can’t see how it’s not warm to very warm

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Observed lots of low-topped-surface based drizzle showers in the 5 boros, Long Island, this late afternoon. It's a good to day to calibrate your .pal files of your nexrad color tables on RadarOmega, Radarscope, etc.

Lots of microscale boundaries with the sun poking through that are reestablishing the marine layer like a washing machine kept in rinse and spin. Mid-level clouds coming from the southwest with the jet are just adding to the special effects that otherwise would be a glum October day.

From the skies, it was a very active day.

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An offshore storm brought clouds, a stiff east-northeasterly wind, and some light rain to the region. Rainfall amounts included: Atlantic City: 0.03"; Bridgeport: 0.04"; Islip: 0.11"; New York City: 0.11"; Newark: 0.33"; and, Philadelphia: 0.03". The rainfall at Central Park pushed the 2021 total to 52.22". That surpassed the 52.13" that fell in 1979 as New York City's 32nd highest annual figure on record.

Warmer and drier air will start to return tomorrow, but it will be partly to mostly cloudy. Sunshine and much above normal temperatures are likely around mid-week. Overall, the generally warm regime will continue into at least mid-month.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around September 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely yield to La Niña conditions later this month.

The SOI was -4.13 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.395 today.

On October 8 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.025 (RMM). The October 7-adjusted amplitude was 2.236 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.8° (3.9° above normal).

 

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39 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

An offshore storm brought clouds, a stiff east-northeasterly wind, and some light rain to the region. Rainfall amounts included: Atlantic City: 0.03"; Bridgeport: 0.04"; Islip: 0.11"; New York City: 0.11"; Newark: 0.33"; and, Philadelphia: 0.03". The rainfall at Central Park pushed the 2021 total to 52.22". That surpassed the 52.13" that fell in 1979 as New York City's 32nd highest annual figure on record.

Warmer and drier air will start to return tomorrow, but it will be partly to mostly cloudy. Sunshine and much above normal temperatures are likely around mid-week. Overall, the generally warm regime will continue into at least mid-month.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around September 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely yield to La Niña conditions later this month.

The SOI was -4.13 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.395 today.

On October 8 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.025 (RMM). The October 7-adjusted amplitude was 2.236 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.8° (3.9° above normal).

 

Don,

 The medium range model consensus has clearly trended cooler since the Friday morning runs for later this month for the E US. They have the upper trough at that time further west into the E US vs having been mainly offshore in older runs. That has continued through the 18Z GFS/GEFS today.

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6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Don,

 The medium range model consensus has clearly trended cooler since the Friday morning runs for later this month for the E US. They have the upper trough at that time further west into the E US vs having been mainly offshore in older runs. That has continued through the 18Z GFS/GEFS today.

Yes. The PNA is forecast to turn positive. The weekend should turn cooler. It will be interesting to see how long this lasts.

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The next 8 days are averaging 68degs.(61/75), or +9.

Month to date is  65.2[+3.5].       Could be  66.4[+5.9] by the 19th.

Reached 69 here yesterday.

Today: 70-74, e. wind, mostly cloudy.

63*(90%RH) here at 6am.         69* at Noon         72* at 3pm.       75* at 4pm.       Reached 77* ! at 4:45pm.

 

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