SACRUS Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 60 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 17 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Nice TS off the coast of NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 39 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Good point about the extreme warmth off New Foundland possibly causing that weird NAO/AO blocking last winter. As far as how this all plays out this winter is anyone’s guess. Big differences for this coming winter as you pointed out, are the 2nd year, coupled Niña and strong -PDO/-PMM. And yea, that equatorial warmth in the Atlantic is staggering Cold pool in GOA plus moderate La Niña, can’t see how it’s not warm to very warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 64 and raw here in Brooklyn , NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Light to moderate rain in Brightwaters. 64/58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Light to moderate rain in Brightwaters. 64/58 Start and stop on the postage stamp. As always ….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 36 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 64 and raw here in Brooklyn , NY Bring back summer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Similar weather tu Jul 3rd this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 This band of rain is pretty heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Pouring in newark. Wasnt the most fun landing ive ever had. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 10, 2021 Author Share Posted October 10, 2021 1 minute ago, BxEngine said: Pouring in newark. Wasnt the most fun landing ive ever had. Spirit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Spirit? No i dont like paying extra for a pilot and landing gear 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, BxEngine said: No i dont like paying extra for a pilot and landing gear not spirit but same difference 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 gloomy misty chilly wind raw feeling my kind of weather..wish every day was like this for october... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Could see an impressive late season warm up this week with more 80s. The EPAC tropical system phases with the near record Western Trough. This really pumps up the SE Ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Picked up 0.34" with the band of showers that moved in from the se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Picked up 0.39" of rain so far today. Current temp 66/DP 64/RH 95% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 a lil bit of sunlight here in manhattan..or brightening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Waves on the Long Island Sound. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Observed lots of low-topped-surface based drizzle showers in the 5 boros, Long Island, this late afternoon. It's a good to day to calibrate your .pal files of your nexrad color tables on RadarOmega, Radarscope, etc. Lots of microscale boundaries with the sun poking through that are reestablishing the marine layer like a washing machine kept in rinse and spin. Mid-level clouds coming from the southwest with the jet are just adding to the special effects that otherwise would be a glum October day. From the skies, it was a very active day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Looks like in about a week we will be getting into a chillier than normal period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 An offshore storm brought clouds, a stiff east-northeasterly wind, and some light rain to the region. Rainfall amounts included: Atlantic City: 0.03"; Bridgeport: 0.04"; Islip: 0.11"; New York City: 0.11"; Newark: 0.33"; and, Philadelphia: 0.03". The rainfall at Central Park pushed the 2021 total to 52.22". That surpassed the 52.13" that fell in 1979 as New York City's 32nd highest annual figure on record. Warmer and drier air will start to return tomorrow, but it will be partly to mostly cloudy. Sunshine and much above normal temperatures are likely around mid-week. Overall, the generally warm regime will continue into at least mid-month. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around September 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely yield to La Niña conditions later this month. The SOI was -4.13 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.395 today. On October 8 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.025 (RMM). The October 7-adjusted amplitude was 2.236 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.8° (3.9° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 39 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: An offshore storm brought clouds, a stiff east-northeasterly wind, and some light rain to the region. Rainfall amounts included: Atlantic City: 0.03"; Bridgeport: 0.04"; Islip: 0.11"; New York City: 0.11"; Newark: 0.33"; and, Philadelphia: 0.03". The rainfall at Central Park pushed the 2021 total to 52.22". That surpassed the 52.13" that fell in 1979 as New York City's 32nd highest annual figure on record. Warmer and drier air will start to return tomorrow, but it will be partly to mostly cloudy. Sunshine and much above normal temperatures are likely around mid-week. Overall, the generally warm regime will continue into at least mid-month. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around September 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely yield to La Niña conditions later this month. The SOI was -4.13 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.395 today. On October 8 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.025 (RMM). The October 7-adjusted amplitude was 2.236 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.8° (3.9° above normal). Don, The medium range model consensus has clearly trended cooler since the Friday morning runs for later this month for the E US. They have the upper trough at that time further west into the E US vs having been mainly offshore in older runs. That has continued through the 18Z GFS/GEFS today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, GaWx said: Don, The medium range model consensus has clearly trended cooler since the Friday morning runs for later this month for the E US. They have the upper trough at that time further west into the E US vs having been mainly offshore in older runs. That has continued through the 18Z GFS/GEFS today. Yes. The PNA is forecast to turn positive. The weekend should turn cooler. It will be interesting to see how long this lasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 I'd be happy with seasonable. Or, at the very least, less humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 10 hours ago, nycwinter said: gloomy misty chilly wind raw feeling my kind of weather..wish every day was like this for october... not a fan of the sun eh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 10 hours ago, bluewave said: Could see an impressive late season warm up this week with more 80s. The EPAC tropical system phases with the near record Western Trough. This really pumps up the SE Ridge. think Friday is the last widespread 80 degree day? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 Our precipitation patterns have become increasingly volatile. After the extremely wet summer we have dried out again. Any fall color you see from the city south and east is from water stressed trees. Tough times to be in the horticulture field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 68degs.(61/75), or +9. Month to date is 65.2[+3.5]. Could be 66.4[+5.9] by the 19th. Reached 69 here yesterday. Today: 70-74, e. wind, mostly cloudy. 63*(90%RH) here at 6am. 69* at Noon 72* at 3pm. 75* at 4pm. Reached 77* ! at 4:45pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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