winterwx21 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: It's my birthday Apple picking is a nice activity. Have a great birthday! My birthday is next week as well, on tuesday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Nice to see a decent amount of sunshine this afternoon. The temp popped up to 77 here. Plenty of upper 70s days coming, tomorrow and again next week. We'll see if we can touch 80 a couple times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Next week could easily put up the highest anomalies but the following week looks much cooler. It's too early to tell of course but tellies suggest cooler weather is coming. Raindancewx brought up 2011 as far as the ENSO state goes and we all know what happened that October. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 33 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Apple picking is a nice activity. Have a great birthday! My birthday is next week as well, on tuesday. October 19th..63 years old..Happy Birthday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said: October 19th..63 years old..Happy Birthday! Thank you! And happy birthday to you in advance! I'm turning 44 on tuesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 56 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Apple picking is a nice activity. Have a great birthday! My birthday is next week as well, on tuesday. That's funny, mine is Tuesday as well, as I used to live in pway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Euro is drier for Monday than previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is drier for Monday than previous runs Trending towards other guidance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: Thank you! And happy birthday to you in advance! I'm turning 44 on tuesday. Have a great birthday, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: It’s been awhile since we’ve seen the -PMM/-PDO pattern, it broke in early 2013 and hasn’t been back since now The latest extended EPS keeps the warm +EPO going well into October. Some hints that the pattern may try to go more -EPO/-AO in November. But that is a long way out for the weeklies. Oct 11-18 Pattern change for November? Nov 8-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Looks like about 10 days before chilly or cold weather moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, lee59 said: Looks like about 10 days before chilly or cold weather moves in. Today's eps says meh to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 1 hour ago, lee59 said: Looks like about 10 days before chilly or cold weather moves in. that can be the sign of trouble the cold is always 10 days away...LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Have a great birthday, too. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Euro is drier for Monday than previous runs Yeah 12z Euro gets the rain out of the way quickly sunday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 The GFS ENS which differs with the OP starting near the 18th.-----where the OP is 10 degrees cooler. We'll see. Do not know where this BN air comes from.......a warm strat. over the NE et al? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 Under partly sunny skies, temperatures rose into the lower and middle 70s today. Newark reached 70° for the 162nd time this year. As a result, 2021 is tied for 15th place with 1959 and 1989. Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and very warm. The temperature will likely reach the middle and possibly upper 70s. Slightly cooler air will return for the weekend. Some rain is possible on Sunday. Overall, the generally warm regime will continue into at least mid-month. Bismarck concluded its 2nd warmest opening week of October on record with a mean temperature of 64.5°. The record of 65.1° was set in 2011. In addition, the October 1-7 average high temperature was 82.3°. That set a new 7-day October record. The old record of 81.9° was set during October 7-13, 1934. Records go back to 1874. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around September 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely yield to La Niña conditions later this month. The SOI was +14.12 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.340 today. On October 5 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.968 (RMM). The October 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.841 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (4.1° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSG5010 Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Hello… looking for some help in getting the truest sense of weather here in NYC (UES) for Sunday, 10/10. Everything looks dicey at best, and we’re debating how to handle my daughters outdoor birthday party. We have some planning commitments which won’t allow us to play it by ear and sort of need to make a decision by tomorrow (Friday) evening at the latest. Any help would be most appreciated! Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 24 minutes ago, JSG5010 said: Right now, it looks as if showers and light rain will arrive Sunday morning near 8 am and on and off light rain will persist into the evening. Total rainfall will be somewhere around 0.50”. I wish things looked better. We’ll see what the overnight guidance shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSG5010 Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 Thanks for the quick feedback. Will definitely be following overnight into tomorrow.. hoping for the best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 12 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Next week could easily put up the highest anomalies but the following week looks much cooler. It's too early to tell of course but tellies suggest cooler weather is coming. Raindancewx brought up 2011 as far as the ENSO state goes and we all know what happened that October. cool weather will come after Halloween, probably not before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 10 hours ago, lee59 said: Looks like about 10 days before chilly or cold weather moves in. chilly or cold weather isn't coming before early November, the models rush pattern changes, we're probably good through at least Halloween 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: chilly or cold weather isn't coming before early November, the models rush pattern changes, we're probably good through at least Halloween Happens every year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 Morning thoughts… After some early fog in a few locations, today will be partly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and even upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 73° Newark: 77° Philadelphia: 77° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 67.4°; 15-Year: 68.6° Newark: 30-Year: 69.0°; 15-Year: 70.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 70.2°; 15-Year: 71.3° A generally warmer than normal regime will continue into at least mid-month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 69degs.(64/75), or +8. The next 10 days look like all 70+,* with little rain. *except the weekend with east winds. Travelling 5-Day periods starting the 25th should be near to---or BN up to this time in November. Reached 77* here yesterday. Today: 74-77, p. cloudy, wind n. to e. 63*(95%RH) here at 6am. 66* at 9am. 70*/71* at Noon. 73* at 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 Several more fall temperature benchmarks still haven’t been reached around the area with the warmth. NYC is yet to see the first 40s of the season and POU hasn’t had any 30s. So these firsts for the fall will be near the latest on record at both locations. This is in top of the already later average first dates since the 1951-1980 climate period. NYC latest first 40s First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2005 05-25 (2005) 48 10-20 (2005) 49 147 2017 05-14 (2017) 46 10-16 (2017) 46 154 1995 05-11 (1995) 48 10-16 (1995) 48 157 1955 05-18 (1955) 48 10-16 (1955) 46 150 1969 05-27 (1969) 49 10-15 (1969) 46 140 1898 05-10 (1898) 47 10-15 (1898) 49 157 POU latest first 30s First/Last Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 1939 05-19 (1939) 39 10-15 (1939) 32 148 2018 05-01 (2018) 38 10-13 (2018) 38 164 1931 05-04 (1931) 34 10-11 (1931) 39 159 2015 05-14 (2015) 35 10-10 (2015) 39 148 2002 05-23 (2002) 36 10-08 (2002) 36 137 2011 05-08 (2011) 38 10-06 (2011) 36 150 Fall temperature benchmarks getting later over time NYC average first 40s….2010-2020….10-05…..1951-1980….09-24 POU average first 30s….2010-2020….09-27…..1951-1980….09-17 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 Morning sunrise: 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 58 here with dense fog. High temp here yesterday was 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 On 10/6/2021 at 7:59 PM, LibertyBell said: thats awesome it means we all save on heating bills for another month I have no problem with that! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 61F Dense Fog starting to break. Another hour at most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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