Stormlover74 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Our first full month of autumn. Will it feature more above normal temps and potential threats from the tropics? Euro is a washout the first weekend of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 I think we are due for a Tropical Storm hit sometime in the future. 30 storms last year, and 30+ probably this year, and we are like 1:3 behind in the decadal averages. check out this -NAO coming for D4 https://ibb.co/476WdDh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 On 9/24/2021 at 2:56 PM, Stormlover74 said: Our first full month of autumn. Will it feature more above normal temps and potential threats from the tropics? Euro is a washout the first weekend of the month the washout is now a ridge. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 26 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the washout is now a ridge. lol Yep The ULL shifted way northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 Really wet actually 7 October's in a row 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 9 hours ago, bluewave said: October will start with record blocking over Eastern Canada. The weeklies continue this general 500 mb pattern right through October. It’s interesting since several long range seasonal forecasts were showing this type of October regime since last summer. So plenty of Canadian high pressure to our north. Oct 4-11 Oct 11-18 What does this mean temperature-wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 30 minutes ago, bluewave said: A colder than average start to October. Then a very gradual moderation in temperatures. Models eventually get us back to above normal temperatures. But the warmest departures look to remain to our west. 9-27 to 10-04 10-04 to 10-11 10-11 to 10-18 This highly suggest a lot of onshore flow days so probably near normal highs and warm minimums. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 The Carribean should become active soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 I bet the wet streak continues, the whole US was +75/25 greater every of the last 7 year's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: This highly suggest a lot of onshore flow days so probably near normal highs and warm minimums. yep-oceans are still warm so onshore would give us temps close to water temps which are still near 70 or better depending on locale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Maybe the big ridge over Eastern Canada and the Northeast means that we are finally getting 500 mb patterns that are coupled with the ENSO. This is a textbook La Niña pattern for the month of October. It could be related to the recent PDO drop and cooler SSTs off of the West Coast. 16-17 and 17-18 were are last two winters that the La Niña or any ENSO state fully coupled. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Rechecked and deleted the post on much wetter than normal. I think we're headed the way but I put up the 12z/28 EPS ens 'control' and that won't work as ensemble. My error. Walt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 NYC October temperature and precipitation...... decade....Ave.......high..low......Ave.max/min...max...min..ave Rainfall/snowfall 1870's.....55.5.......60.3....50.6......76.0...34.1......85...29......3.55"...0.1" 1880's.....53.9.......58.8....48.6......77.0...34.1......87...29......3.17".....0 1890's.....55.5.......59.5....52.5......77.4...37.3......87...34......3.59".....0 1900's.....57.2.......61.3....52.7......77.1...37.5......82...32......4.39".....0 1910's.....57.9.......59.4....53.0......80.1...37.1......87...32......4.41".....0 1920's.....56.8.......61.1....50.6......81.4...35.3......90...29......3.39"...0.1" 1930's.....57.4.......61.3....54.5......81.2...36.3......91...28......3.22".....T 1940's.....58.7.......63.6....53.8......84.9...37.8......94...30......2.42".....T 1950's.....58.6.......61.7....55.5......83.6...38.0......88...33......3.68"...0.1" 1960's.....58.2.......61.8....55.0......82.2...35.3......86...31......2.45".....T 1970's.....56.9.......62.7....52.9......78.1...35.7......88...29......3.88".....T 1980's.....57.0.......61.8....52.8......78.5...37.2......84...31......4.01".....0 1990's.....57.7.......61.9....54.5......79.1...38.8......86...34......3.85".....0 2000's.....57.0.......63.6....55.0......79.1...38.1......87...36......5.23".....T 2010's.....59.2.......64.1....57.1......81.9...39.1......93...33......4.20"....0.3" 2020.......57.9...............................74.0...32.0......74...32......5.05".....0 1870--- 2019.......57.2................................79.8...37.4.....94...28......3.70"......T 1990--- 2019.......58.0................................80.0...38.7.....93...33......4.43"...0.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 Next week looks dreary 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Next week looks dreary Pretty mild though, especially overnight lows considering it's October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 Stupid question…going to the Jets game on Sunday (I know, haha, why bother?) and more important to me/us is the tailgate. It was all sun and Upper 60s until today where there is now a chance of showers. Can any of you smarter than me tell me how much rain we might get and what part of the day. East Rutherford. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 1 hour ago, JerseyWx said: Pretty mild though, especially overnight lows considering it's October. Easy +10 through mid October. Highs in the low to mid 70s with some days near 80. Lows not getting below 54-55. Probably another top 5 warmest month if not higher. Very scary stuff 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 A return to warmer than average temperatures following a brief cooler to near normal first day of the month. This matches up with September and October being the fastest warming months of fall. The monthly temperature increases from 81-10 to 91-20 have been more pronounced during certain months. Newark and Islip are compared below. The +1.0 or warmer months for either station were bolded. So we get an extension of summer into September. ……….EWR…..ISP Dec…+1.5….+1.5 Jan….+1.2…+1.3 Feb….+0.5….+0.5 Mar….+0.4….+0.6 Apr….+0.5…..+0.6 May...+0.6….+0.9 Jun….+0.3….+0.6 Jul…..+1.4…..+1.1 Aug...+0.6….+0.9 Sep….+1.0….+1.3 Oct…..+0.9..+1.4 Nov….+0.2..+0.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 8 hours ago, guinness77 said: Stupid question…going to the Jets game on Sunday (I know, haha, why bother?) and more important to me/us is the tailgate. It was all sun and Upper 60s until today where there is now a chance of showers. Can any of you smarter than me tell me how much rain we might get and what part of the day. East Rutherford. Thanks in advance. The way it's look now, you should remain dry. I'm predicting partly cloud skies and a 38-3 loss. Enjoy! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 We will push 80 in the warmer spots Sat, if enough sun on Sunday (10/3) it will be low 80s (EWR record is 85). More clouds and Mon (10/4) as upper low pushes west and hung up flow overall. Should see more persistent onshore to more humid S/SE flow by the middle/end of next week Thu (10/7) - Sat (10/9). Beyond there ridge builds into the east and warmer mid month. Not sure we see more 80s in the period 10/10 - 10/20 in the warm spots but chances may be increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 30, 2021 Author Share Posted September 30, 2021 58 minutes ago, Rjay said: The way it's look now, you should remain dry. I'm predicting partly cloud skies and a 38-3 loss. Enjoy! At least the giants lose close heartbreakers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 26 minutes ago, SACRUS said: We will push 80 in the warmer spots Sat, if enough sun on Sunday (10/3) it will be low 80s (EWR record is 85). More clouds and Mon (10/4) as upper low pushes west and hung up flow overall. Should see more persistent onshore to more humid S/SE flow by the middle/end of next week Thu (10/7) - Sat (10/9). Beyond there ridge builds into the east and warmer mid month. Not sure we see more 80s in the period 10/10 - 10/20 in the warm spots but chances may be increasing. some models are wet starting Mon/Tue (euro/gfs) others are fairly dry-CMC....that will factor into high temps for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 GEFS' OUTLOOK FOR FIRST 15 DAYS OF OCTOBER. A good +4 or +5. Precipitation not shown is BN at 1.5". And look at this waste of High T's, m. cloudy all the way, and little rain for the trouble. Actually cloudy and chance of rain till the 12th. KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 9/30/2021 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 FRI 01| SAT 02| SUN 03| MON 04| TUE 05| WED 06| THU 07|FRI CLIMO N/X 52 68| 57 77| 62 76| 63 73| 64 75| 66 77| 64 78| 62 52 68 TMP 53 64| 59 70| 64 67| 65 66| 66 69| 68 69| 66 71| 63 DPT 40 41| 48 53| 54 57| 60 62| 63 60| 61 59| 60 60| 56 CLD CL CL| CL CL| CL PC| OV OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV WND 6 4| 4 5| 3 3| 3 7| 7 5| 3 4| 5 6| 10 P12 4 1| 1 4| 2 16| 50 34| 50 27| 21 27| 30 28| 35999999 P24 4| 4| 16| 58| 55| 38| 42| 999 Q12 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 1 0| 1 0| 0 0| | Q24 0| 0| 0| 1| 1| 0| | T12 1 0| 2 0| 1 1| 7 5| 12 8| 3 3| 3 3| 2 T24 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 7 PZP 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 1 1| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 PSN 0 0| 0 0| 0 1| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 PRS 0 0| 0 1| 1 0| 0 1| 1 1| 1 1| 1 1| 1 TYP R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R SNW 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| | 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 10 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Easy +10 through mid October. Highs in the low to mid 70s with some days near 80. Lows not getting below 54-55. Probably another top 5 warmest month if not higher. Very scary stuff Follows the trend of recent years where we get some brief cooldowns in between the warmth like Bluewave mentioned above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 30, 2021 Author Share Posted September 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Follows the trend of recent years where we get some brief cooldowns in between the warmth like Bluewave mentioned above. And the cooldowns are only to average or a tad below but feels cold with all the heat on either side of the cooldown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: And the cooldowns are only to average or a tad below but feels cold with all the heat on either side of the cooldown now that the nws shows all station data going back to when the stations were founded i pick random months from the past to see how much we've changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 october 1937 at ewr Sum 1929 1391 - - 355 6 4.56 0.0 - Average 62.2 44.9 53.5 -4.0 - - - - 0.0 Normal 66.0 49.0 57.5 - 253 21 3.79 0.2 - 1937-10-01 72 44 58.0 -5.3 7 0 0.00 0.0 0 1937-10-02 73 51 62.0 -0.9 3 0 0.02 0.0 0 1937-10-03 59 51 55.0 -7.5 10 0 0.01 0.0 0 1937-10-04 70 53 61.5 -0.6 3 0 0.00 0.0 0 1937-10-05 72 58 65.0 3.3 0 0 0.49 0.0 0 1937-10-06 77 65 71.0 9.7 0 6 T 0.0 0 1937-10-07 77 51 64.0 3.1 1 0 T 0.0 0 1937-10-08 56 43 49.5 -11.0 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 1937-10-09 53 38 45.5 -14.6 19 0 0.03 0.0 0 1937-10-10 50 43 46.5 -13.2 18 0 0.16 0.0 0 1937-10-11 57 43 50.0 -9.3 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 1937-10-12 71 39 55.0 -3.9 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 1937-10-13 50 45 47.5 -11.0 17 0 T 0.0 0 1937-10-14 52 38 45.0 -13.1 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 1937-10-15 51 32 41.5 -16.3 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 1937-10-16 52 41 46.5 -10.9 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 1937-10-17 56 29 42.5 -14.5 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 1937-10-18 65 35 50.0 -6.6 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 1937-10-19 66 58 62.0 5.7 3 0 0.99 0.0 0 1937-10-20 68 46 57.0 1.1 8 0 1.74 0.0 0 1937-10-21 66 42 54.0 -1.6 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 1937-10-22 67 51 59.0 3.8 6 0 0.22 0.0 0 1937-10-23 68 46 57.0 2.2 8 0 0.18 0.0 0 1937-10-24 47 37 42.0 -12.5 23 0 T 0.0 0 1937-10-25 54 33 43.5 -10.6 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 1937-10-26 62 35 48.5 -5.3 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1937-10-27 66 50 58.0 4.6 7 0 0.15 0.0 0 1937-10-28 59 51 55.0 1.9 10 0 0.57 0.0 0 1937-10-29 61 50 55.5 2.7 9 0 T 0.0 0 1937-10-30 72 48 60.0 7.6 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 1937-10-31 60 45 52.5 0.4 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 july 1874 at the park. more lows in the 60s than 70s Sum 2553 2047 - - 0 291 5.06 0.0 Average 82.4 66.0 74.2 -3.3 - - - - Normal 84.9 70.1 77.5 - 0 388 4.60 0.0 1874-07-01 83 62 72.5 -3.8 0 8 0.00 0.0 1874-07-02 80 68 74.0 -2.4 0 9 0.01 0.0 1874-07-03 76 61 68.5 -8.1 0 4 0.00 0.0 1874-07-04 76 58 67.0 -9.8 0 2 0.44 0.0 1874-07-05 70 62 66.0 -10.9 0 1 0.00 0.0 1874-07-06 80 61 70.5 -6.6 0 6 0.00 0.0 1874-07-07 82 60 71.0 -6.2 0 6 0.00 0.0 1874-07-08 91 67 79.0 1.7 0 14 0.03 0.0 1874-07-09 85 71 78.0 0.6 0 13 0.17 0.0 1874-07-10 86 69 77.5 0.0 0 13 1.94 0.0 1874-07-11 82 69 75.5 -2.1 0 11 0.78 0.0 1874-07-12 85 69 77.0 -0.7 0 12 0.83 0.0 1874-07-13 81 70 75.5 -2.2 0 11 0.00 0.0 1874-07-14 87 68 77.5 -0.3 0 13 0.00 0.0 1874-07-15 93 72 82.5 4.7 0 18 0.00 0.0 1874-07-16 86 68 77.0 -0.8 0 12 0.00 0.0 1874-07-17 80 62 71.0 -6.9 0 6 0.00 0.0 1874-07-18 85 63 74.0 -3.9 0 9 0.00 0.0 1874-07-19 84 68 76.0 -1.9 0 11 0.00 0.0 1874-07-20 90 68 79.0 1.1 0 14 0.36 0.0 1874-07-21 79 69 74.0 -3.9 0 9 0.03 0.0 1874-07-22 80 65 72.5 -5.4 0 8 0.00 0.0 1874-07-23 86 65 75.5 -2.3 0 11 0.00 0.0 1874-07-24 83 67 75.0 -2.8 0 10 0.00 0.0 1874-07-25 81 65 73.0 -4.8 0 8 0.00 0.0 1874-07-26 81 69 75.0 -2.8 0 10 0.00 0.0 1874-07-27 82 70 76.0 -1.7 0 11 0.00 0.0 1874-07-28 81 70 75.5 -2.2 0 11 0.00 0.0 1874-07-29 73 66 69.5 -8.1 0 5 0.47 0.0 1874-07-30 81 61 71.0 -6.6 0 6 0.00 0.0 1874-07-31 84 64 74.0 -3.5 0 9 0.00 0.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 august 1881. three days in mid august with lows in the 50s Sum 2528 2033 - - 6 280 0.86 0.0 Average 81.5 65.6 73.6 -2.5 - - - - Normal 83.3 68.9 76.1 - 1 345 4.56 0.0 1881-08-01 80 68 74.0 -3.5 0 9 0.00 0.0 1881-08-02 81 70 75.5 -1.9 0 11 0.00 0.0 1881-08-03 85 67 76.0 -1.3 0 11 0.00 0.0 1881-08-04 91 70 80.5 3.2 0 16 0.00 0.0 1881-08-05 91 75 83.0 5.8 0 18 0.07 0.0 1881-08-06 91 78 84.5 7.4 0 20 0.00 0.0 1881-08-07 79 67 73.0 -4.1 0 8 0.74 0.0 1881-08-08 78 61 69.5 -7.5 0 5 0.00 0.0 1881-08-09 81 62 71.5 -5.4 0 7 0.01 0.0 1881-08-10 86 64 75.0 -1.8 0 10 0.00 0.0 1881-08-11 78 59 68.5 -8.3 0 4 0.00 0.0 1881-08-12 81 62 71.5 -5.2 0 7 0.00 0.0 1881-08-13 96 70 83.0 6.4 0 18 0.00 0.0 1881-08-14 78 66 72.0 -4.5 0 7 0.00 0.0 1881-08-15 76 63 69.5 -6.9 0 5 0.00 0.0 1881-08-16 71 59 65.0 -11.3 0 0 0.00 0.0 1881-08-17 67 56 61.5 -14.7 3 0 0.01 0.0 1881-08-18 67 57 62.0 -14.1 3 0 0.00 0.0 1881-08-19 70 64 67.0 -9.0 0 2 0.02 0.0 1881-08-20 81 66 73.5 -2.3 0 9 0.00 0.0 1881-08-21 85 68 76.5 0.8 0 12 0.01 0.0 1881-08-22 81 67 74.0 -1.6 0 9 0.00 0.0 1881-08-23 83 61 72.0 -3.4 0 7 0.00 0.0 1881-08-24 82 63 72.5 -2.8 0 8 0.00 0.0 1881-08-25 76 65 70.5 -4.6 0 6 0.00 0.0 1881-08-26 82 63 72.5 -2.5 0 8 0.00 0.0 1881-08-27 78 66 72.0 -2.8 0 7 0.00 0.0 1881-08-28 89 67 78.0 3.4 0 13 0.00 0.0 1881-08-29 86 67 76.5 2.1 0 12 0.00 0.0 1881-08-30 85 70 77.5 3.3 0 13 0.00 0.0 1881-08-31 93 72 82.5 8.5 0 18 0.00 0.0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: We will push 80 in the warmer spots Sat, if enough sun on Sunday (10/3) it will be low 80s (EWR record is 85). More clouds and Mon (10/4) as upper low pushes west and hung up flow overall. Should see more persistent onshore to more humid S/SE flow by the middle/end of next week Thu (10/7) - Sat (10/9). Beyond there ridge builds into the east and warmer mid month. Not sure we see more 80s in the period 10/10 - 10/20 in the warm spots but chances may be increasing. Still getting 80s in October with ease 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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