Subtropical Storm Teresa

[WxWatcher007]

Likely to become our next named storm as it has increased in organization. Perhaps a system for Maritime Canada?

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Sam, located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward 
Islands.

1. Surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a 
surface low located a couple hundred miles north-northeast of 
Bermuda is gradually becoming better defined as it interacts with an 
upper-level trough. This system is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph 
north of the low center and additional development into a 
subtropical or tropical storm appears likely. Advisories could be 
initiated as soon as this afternoon as the system moves slowly 
toward the north-northwest over the next day or so. Additional 
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in 
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

 

[WxWatcher007]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook...Retransmitted
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook issued for the system located to 
the north-northeast of Bermuda. 

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane  
Sam, located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward 
Islands. 

Updated: Recent visible satellite imagery indicates that a 
well-defined center has formed with a surface low located a couple 
hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda interacting with an 
upper-level trough. In addition, the low is producing gale-force 
winds on the north side of its circulation. Additional development 
into a subtropical storm is now expected, and advisories will likely 
be initiated this afternoon as the system moves slowly toward the 
north-northwest. Additional information on this system, including 
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the 
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[WxWatcher007]

NHC will initiate advisories on Subtropical Storm Teresa, located to the north of Bermuda, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).

[WxWatcher007]

Subtropical Storm Teresa Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192021
500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021

The disturbance just north of Bermuda interacting with a mid- to 
upper-level low has developed a prominent band of deep convection
within its eastern semicircle as well as a well-defined surface 
center. Additionally, the system is not displaying any significant 
baroclinicity (i.e., frontal boundaries), so it is not an 
extratropical cyclone.  All of which indicates that the system has 
evolved into a subtropical cyclone. ASCAT-C scatterometer data from 
1440Z suggested peak winds were around 40 kt, which is the basis 
for calling the system Subtropical Storm Teresa.

The system is moving toward the northwest at 12 kt is it rounds the 
northern part of the mid- to upper-level low.  By Saturday, Teresa 
should turn northward and then northeastward, as it begins to be 
caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies. The forecast is based upon 
the TVCN track consensus technique.

Teresa will not be long-lived.  A  developing extratropical system 
forming off of New England should absorb Teresa between 36 and 48 
hours.  Until then, the subtropical storm has a small window to 
intensify slightly while traversing lukewarm water and 
encountering moderate vertical shear.  If deep convection develops 
near the system's center, then Teresa could evolve into a tropical 
storm.  However, it is more likely that Teresa will remain a 
subtropical storm until dissipation in around two days.

It is worth noting that Teresa will likely be the 9th so-called 
"shortie" of the 2021 hurricane season -- systems that are short- 
lived and relatively weak.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 34.5N  64.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 35.4N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 36.3N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 37.2N  64.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[madwx]

Teresa the shortie

[WxWatcher007]

Gets absorbed in a few days  

[olafminesaw]

There should be a mercy rule for these kind of systems

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

There should be a mercy rule for these kind of systems

Don't like tracking?

[OKwx_2001]

It will forever baffle me why people complain about short lived storms getting named 

[Iceresistance]

26 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

It will forever baffle me why people complain about short lived storms getting named 

It may baffle me somewhat too, but the NHC does what they do best, there was a system near France in 2016 was NOT named by the NHC since it was proven to be Non-Tropical because it was still connected to an occluded front, Teresa does NOT have any fronts & ASCAT (Mentioned in Discussion #1) proved it . . . 

[Windspeed]

But even then we've had recent storms attain hurricane status that in years past never would have.

A reality of improving remote sensing technology and analysis. The science remains the same. If data supports classification, the argument is moot. There isn't an underlying agenda. As has been repeated nearly every time such discussion comes up in a thread, TAFB is responsible for maritime shipping interests, not just coastal threats. If data supports classification or naming and poses potential risk, a forecaster has to make a call. Nothing is perfect but it's their judgements and they have a huge responsibility, so why clutter up these threads with the same old points? Accept it, they're going to do their jobs, move on...

[Prospero]

"Teresa" had to have a storm this year. (My mother-in-laws name).

I say better a minimal Tropical Storm out at sea than a Major anywhere. Seriously!

[Windspeed]

3 hours ago, Prospero said:

"Teresa" had to have a storm this year. (My mother-in-laws name).
I say better a minimal Tropical Storm out at sea than a Major anywhere. Seriously!

You think that's bad? My late grandmother's name was Ida. My father's name is Sam. 

[lee59]

On 9/25/2021 at 9:05 AM, Windspeed said:

On 9/25/2021 at 8:48 AM, smokeybandit said:

But even then we've had recent storms attain hurricane status that in years past never would have.

A reality of improving remote sensing technology and analysis. The science remains the same. If data supports classification, the argument is moot. There isn't an underlying agenda. As has been repeated nearly every time such discussion comes up in a thread, TAFB is responsible for maritime shipping interests, not just coastal threats. If data supports classification or naming and poses potential risk, a forecaster has to make a call. Nothing is perfect but it's their judgements and they have a huge responsibility, so why clutter up these threads with the same old points? Accept it, they're going to do their jobs, move on...

The thing is and I thought I posted this. The data may support classification but the classification has changed. It is ok to change the classification, but keep it in mind when making comparisons to the past. Non tropical or sub tropical systems are now in the same class as tropical systems, in the past this was not the case.