OBS-Nowcast isolated 3.5" rainfall and/or SVR from 3PM Thu-8AM Fri 9/23-24/21 NYS/NJ/CT/w LI

[wdrag]

While most of the NYC subforum will have a routine moderate or heavy rainfall, there could be narrow corridors of excessive rain. Some of the guidance shows max possible rainfall in our area of ~4" but most of it is in the range from near 1/4" e LI to between 1/2 and 2" elsewhere. The primary time for heaviest weather is 6P-4A tonight.

Please monitor NWS watches/warnings/statements on FF/SVR.

[crossbowftw3]

Already seeing some showers here on and off, 70/68. Aside from the severe threat this looks like a standard sustained 15G25-30 type of fall event with 1-3” of rain as the standard which is to say….blah. 

[Rtd208]

Wind fairly gusty here this morning. Also the first severe thunderstorm warning of the day over northern MD near the PA border. I still like a 1-3" rainfall for the NYC metro, also watch for severe later this afternoon/evening which could produce a few tornadoes. 

[Brian5671]

dare I say some of us could us the rain?  we've had less than 1/2 inch here since the 9/1 deluge....

[crossbowftw3]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

dare I say some of us could us the rain?  we've had less than 1/2 inch here since the 9/1 deluge....

All things considered it has genuinely been dry for the most part since then, and we go right back to being dry for a good chunk of this next week. Why not give the grass a little drink?

[justinj]

How long is this going to last for LI? Got an outdoor plan tomorrow around 8-9

[CIK62]

What is your pleasure sir?:

HRRR's   0.6"-1.0" 

GFS        0.6"

SREF      1.0"

CMC      1.2"

EURO     1.5"

NAM       1.5 to 2.0"

[Brian5671]

18 minutes ago, justinj said:

How long is this going to last for LI? Got an outdoor plan tomorrow around 8-9

if you're talking PM it's long gone by then

[justinj]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

if you're talking PM it's long gone by then

Am

[Brian5671]

28 minutes ago, justinj said:

Am

may still linger for a bit....

[ThundaBOOMA]

4 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Already seeing some showers here on and off, 70/68. Aside from the severe threat this looks like a standard sustained 15G25-30 type of fall event with 1-3” of rain as the standard which is to say….blah. 

I'll take this event. There could definitely be some wind damage reports throughout the region and this cold front looks to usher in some truly fall weather, as well as set the table for the start of October.

[winterwarlock]

Looking at the simulated radar it has it clearing my area by 6-7 pm..am i missing something? Why does the fire sst have it lingering overnight

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, ThundaBOOMA said:

I'll take this event. There could definitely be some wind damage reports throughout the region and this cold front looks to usher in some truly fall weather, as well as set the table for the start of October.

I dont know where you are but mid 70s during the day and upper 50s at night is barely average for this time of year. Not exactly break out the sweaters and hot apple cider weather

[ThundaBOOMA]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I dont know where you are but mid 70s during the day and upper 50s at night is barely average for this time of year. Not exactly break out the sweaters and hot apple cider weather

I'm well north of you into NY State.

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, ThundaBOOMA said:

I'm well north of you into NY State.

So you should get down to the low 40s

[ThundaBOOMA]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

So you should get down to the low 40s

Into next week, yes. With a handful of days showing nothing higher than 70. Pretty seasonal for late September.

[crossbowftw3]

Rain has commenced in earnest, although I still hold the belief that the heaviest rains might only really fall over a period of about the next 6 or so hours here. 72/69

[winterwarlock]

I think its only going to rain for 3-4 hours

[Tatamy]

I am in the thick of it out here in eastern PA.  0.72” so far and still coming down. Have not seen any sun at all today.

[Brian5671]

new NAM is wet for many

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

I think its only going to rain for 3-4 hours

like with ida?

[winterwx21]

Coming down in buckets here now. Easily gonna get over an inch of rain from this line.

[the_other_guy]

Very very slow moving.

 

[Stormlover74]

Very heavy rain thunder and lightning

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ 4sw just had a 2.8"/hr rfall RATE. for there day 1.19, most of that since 339P. 

[wdrag]

Been lots of thunder up here in Sussex County NJ since 130P.  Wantage NJ storm total now 1.24" 

[ThundaBOOMA]

First rumbles of thunder here about 65 miles northwest of NYC. Here's to hoping this cold front absolutely kills summer weather.

[crossbowftw3]

Power went off for about 30 seconds just a few minutes ago. Welcome to fall.

[ThundaBOOMA]

Getting battered a bit with rain/wind now. Nothing extreme but some outages and minor street flooding wouldn't shock me.

[snywx]

Heavy rain

1.15" so far