MJO812 Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z Euro is a recurve out by Bermuda Missed the ULL Stronger blocking on this run but never phased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Only 95kt at 5AM. That eye is impressive though. This will probably make a run at CAT5 unless shear kicks in by tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Anyone know when recon plans to fly in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Looks like a cat 3 for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Sat analysis brings this over 100kts with ADT up to 115kts. Overall presentation via satellite imagery and microwave support an upgrade. Sam should easily be a major at 11am if the NHC doesn’t do a special advisory sooner. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Anyone know when recon plans to fly in?I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS1. HURRICANE SAM FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43 A. 26/1200Z B. NOAA3 0118A SAM C. 26/0800Z D. 13.1N 49.7W E. 26/1045Z TO 26/1345Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. AN AIR FORCE WC-130J FIX MISSION INTO SAM FOR 27/1130Z NEAR 14.6N 52.1W B. A NOAA 49 SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND SAM FOR THE 27/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME, DEPARTING TISX AT 26/1730Z. C. TWO MORE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO SAM, DEPARTING TISX AT 26/2000Z AND 27/0800Z3. REMARKS: A. THE NOAA 49 G-IV WILL FLY AN 8-HOUR RESEARCH MISSION AROUND SAM, DEPARTING TISX AT 25/1830Z B. THE NOAA 42 P-3 WILL FLY AN 8.5-HOUR RESEARCH MISSION INTO SAM, DEPARTING TISX AT 25/1900Z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Sam becomes the fourth major hurricane of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 NHC now has Sam at 120 mph & 960 MB Major #4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Latest few MW scans suggest that a concentric eyewall structure is trying to form: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Sam is developing a CMG CDO Ring combined with a OW Eye . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 New foundland gets hit on the gfs and cmc. Why did the Ull shift northeastward on the models? I thought blocking would make it come south ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 46 minutes ago, MJO812 said: New foundland gets hit on the gfs and cmc. Why did the Ull shift northeastward on the models? I thought blocking would make it come south ? Wrong time of the year maybe. We are in that weird spot historically not enough cold fronts to get a 38' and ridges are too weak to get a Belle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 This is there still time to generate a new scenario but Northeastern US is probably in the clear. It takes a lot to get something into the Gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Uh oh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Sam has most likely attained Category 4 intensity. Good time for recon to be en route. I suspect that is what they'll find. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 What a beast. Get that stuff out of here city destroyer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: What a beast. Get that stuff out of here city destroyer. Models have this going way ots. Maybe hitting New Foundland. The models also have another low forming near the coast but weak Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Models have this going way ots. Maybe hitting New Foundland. The models also have another low forming near the coast but weak Euro Indeed either way this will not be a non-event. Trends are concerning again I can slide these pieces around to generate serious doomer porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Indeed either way this will not be a non-event. Trends are concerning again I can slide these pieces around to generate serious doomer porn. Yep sam isn't going to come anywhere near the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Yep sam isn't going to come anywhere near the area. Don't jinx it bro. One day something will come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 18 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Sam has most likely attained Category 4 intensity. Good time for recon to be en route. I suspect that is what they'll find. What are the white dots in and around the eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 What a beast of a storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 What are the white dots in and around the eye? Lightning CGs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Anyone else having trouble getting onto Tropical Tidbits? Any other sits with good real-time recon data? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: Anyone else having trouble getting onto Tropical Tidbits? Any other sits with good real-time recon data? Yes I'm using weather nerds, cyclonicWX and COD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, Amped said: Yes I'm using weather nerds, cyclonicWX and COD Thanks. I never thought to look for recon data on these sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Tidbits is back up for the moment. NOAA2 (Miss Piggy) is the current recon mission into Sam. There are also active data gathering missions to sample the atmospheric environment for the overnight model suites. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 PSU ewall site has a decent Goes 16 page too now. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/PSUGOES_US/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioWX Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 The rate in which Sam has intensified this afternoon is stunning. I'm anxious to see what recon will find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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