StantonParkHoya Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 GFS wayyyy OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I agree but every model shows that and I doubt they are all wrong. GFS is further OTS Yea if that's correct then it'll def be way east. However the combo of the strong high to the north and ULL could create another system close to shore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yea if that's correct then it'll def be way east. However the combo of the strong high to the north and ULL could create another system close to shore. Cmc shows this It's also further west with Sam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Can always rely on GEM for a laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Just now, Joe4alb said: Can always rely on GEM for a laugh Yes we can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: Can always rely on GEM for a laugh 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yes we can Is it a fantasy though ? The Ull is there on all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Is it a fantasy though ? The Ull is there on all the models. definitely not fantasy. but looking for more support on the handling of the WAR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 12 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: Can always rely on GEM for a laugh There's your capture with the ULL Short term track next 3-4 days will be important. Further south it stays the more likely the CMC scenario could play out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: definitely not fantasy. but looking for more support on the handling of the WAR. 100 percent Odds favor a fish Another thing the models are showing is that another low forms near the coast with the interaction of Sam and the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Well I would rather not have a hurricane impact the area so OTS is best. That being said it's premature to say this will harmlessly go OTS at this stage. Enough. I'm a meteorologist who does this for a living offering my thoughts on what I think the most likely scenario is. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 The CMC solution is definitely plausible, as all models have the same players on the field. The CMC is just further west and faster, thus allowing the ridge to become more of a blocking ridge and encouraging the phase. Is it the most likely? Probably not. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 37 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 100 percent Odds favor a fish Another thing the models are showing is that another low forms near the coast with the interaction of Sam and the ULL. But the odds don't favor Fish. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Sam is definitely going to be bumping up the ace that’s for sure 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: 100 percent Odds favor a fish Another thing the models are showing is that another low forms near the coast with the interaction of Sam and the ULL. That’s the storm that JB is harping about today on Twitter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The most likely scenario is OTS obviously but that's always the easiest call to make. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Climatology is always in flux. You got to flux and flow with it and I see much irrational posting. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Euro is at 982. Same time it was in the 950s at 0z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 So far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 6 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: Might hook in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Might hook in The ridge and cutoff retrograde west...how it gets there is pretty interesting too. At the risk of starting another 12 hour debate on what "close" is LOL I'll just stop there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Doesn't get more textbook than that. The fact that the Canadian sucked Sam into the ULL is a testament to how lost the GFS has become. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 That ULL definitely opens the door for some wokiness to happen. And ULLs are notoriously hard to forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 43 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Lol Euro is a lot closer to CMC than Gfs Looks like it'll be close for Maine. Still we're talking 9/10 days out so a lot will change. The strong ridge building in and potential ULL do seem to be on the table though. A capture is the only thing that will send it towards the east coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 I still caution that at this range all the operational stuff is still weenie fodder, but heh, it's something to talk about for a few hours. Show me the ensembles because the GEFS are not budging. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 I have seen this movie many times before. Usually it ends in failure but this time it seems to have generated a epic outcome. I hope you guys remember the modeling for Irma. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 East coast “threats” are the worst 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 7 hours ago, OSUmetstud said: I dont think so. The central Atlantic ridge is tending to weak. I think it affects bermuda and exits right. Thanks Nick. I'm hopeful the ridge breaks down and the westerlies give it the boot but some of the models sure want to make us sweat alittle. example 12z euro. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 There’s no guarantee the low cuts off either 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now