Major Hurricane Sam

[NorthHillsWx]

9 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

28.5-29°C SSTs, negligible shear, has a core per MW, CBs rotating that eyewall feature; all signs point to Sam reaching hurricane status in the AM if at least by Noon AST. No wonder the SHIPs is so pronounced for an RI phase. Only we appear to already be ahead of schedule by 24 hours. Sam will be a classic Cape Verde major hurricane by Saturday, if not sooner.

May be a hurricane by 11 tonight

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I think I see a warm spot starting to develop on the IR where one would expect an eye to appear looking at Trop. Tidbits.  Have read the posts after I got home from work and seen the guidance, this is obviously probably not an ECUSA threat, or interest may drop, but a classic major hurricane, well, Isabel, I downloaded loops on a 56k phone modem when she was at peak, as I get older, enjoying hurricanes is getting easier.

[ncforecaster89]

1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

We are on pace for 32 named storms, I dont ever see this ending in my lifetime, through the 2040s.

Just wait for the next strong El Niño or a redux of 2013.  They will happen in your lifetime if you live at least another five years…which I certainly hope you do!

[ncforecaster89]

4 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

500mb is just all wrong for a US landfall. Theres a trough where you'd want a ridge and a ridge where'd you want a trough. So much has to change for it to happen. I'd put it at less than 10 percent...and that might be generous. 

Completely concur with this assessment, unfortunately, as I’d like to see an East Coast landfall.  
 

Edit: But, there’s a reason I very rarely comment on a solution beyond 5-7 days.  Specifically, there’s ample time for the synoptic pattern to change just enough to effect the eventual track.  For those, like myself, who desire an EC strike, the current deepening trend is not welcome news and will likely mean a further N propagation of the track as it passes the Islands.   

[MJO812]

[Hazey]

Sam looks about to take off. Impressive already.

Hey Nick, Are we gonna have to watch this up here?


#NovaScotiaStrong

[Torch Tiger]

[MJO812]

Cmc just misses the ull in the south 

[Iceresistance]

Sam is a Hurricane per NHC.

And also, it appears that the Monstrous Northern Band is limiting Sam somewhat, it's only a matter a time before it dies out & Sam will undergo RI & there is basically nothing to stop it . . .
 

[Jtm12180]

8 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I think I see a warm spot starting to develop on the IR where one would expect an eye to appear looking at Trop. Tidbits.  Have read the posts after I got home from work and seen the guidance, this is obviously probably not an ECUSA threat, or interest may drop, but a classic major hurricane, well, Isabel, I downloaded loops on a 56k phone modem when she was at peak, as I get older, enjoying hurricanes is getting easier.

Kids today don’t even know the struggle of dial-up…nor the god forsaken noise when dialing/connecting

[Jtm12180]

8 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Completely concur with this assessment, unfortunately, as I’d like to see an East Coast landfall.  
 

Edit: But, there’s a reason I very rarely comment on a solution beyond 5-7 days.  Specifically, there’s ample time for the synoptic pattern to change just enough to effect the eventual track.  For those, like myself, who desire an EC strike, the current deepening trend is not welcome news and will likely mean a further N propagation of the track as it passes the Islands.   

trust me, I get it with wanting to see a hurricane, but wishing for one to hit you is just dumb. 
 

tell you what, if we get a cat 4 here in Myrtle Beach, come pay my deductible on our house if the roof goes

[MJO812]

6z gfs is closer but still a miss

[Iceresistance]

6z GFS turns this into a 936 MB Bomb Cyclone in the Long range . . . 


 

[cptcatz]

Looks like the only land at risk is Bermuda. I'd watch that next wave to see if it can sneak into the Caribbean. 

[OSUmetstud]

9 hours ago, Hazey said:

Sam looks about to take off. Impressive already.

Hey Nick, Are we gonna have to watch this up here?


#NovaScotiaStrong

I dont think so. The central Atlantic ridge is tending to weak. I think it affects bermuda and exits right. 

[ValpoVike]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Looks like the only land at risk is Bermuda. I'd watch that next wave to see if it can sneak into the Caribbean. 

Not sure that one has much chance.  Sam will leave a pretty good cold pool in it's wake, and even so it's recurve will allow anything that forms from that wave to rotate up and around the ridge.  I think Sam is it for CV threats this year, imho.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

I dont think so. The central Atlantic ridge is tending to weak. I think it affects bermuda and exits right. 

With a large ridge building in the east and strong ULL moving SW

I think it's way too early to say it's going OTS

[olafminesaw]

Sam's inner core organization is a little slower than expected this morning. May support a slight adjustment south.

[MJO812]

30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

With a large ridge building in the east and strong ULL moving SW

I think it's way too early to say it's going OTS

Agree

This is why I'm laughing at everyone already throwing in the towel.

[OSUmetstud]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

This is why I'm laughing at everyone already throwing in the towel.

I'll be sure not to offer my thoughts next time on the most likely scenario since you and sno ski don't like it.  

[olafminesaw]

People forget how even when the pattern favors a strong Atlantic ridge, storms that come out of the MDR Recurve OTS like 80% of the time, especially strong storms. All it takes is a slight relaxation of the high.

[WxWatcher007]

14 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I'll be sure not to offer my thoughts next time on the most likely scenario since you and sno ski don't like it.  

I’m offended you’re not talking about the imminent grid collapse that Sammy will bring to the northeast.  

[Stormfly]

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

This is why I'm laughing at everyone already throwing in the towel.

It's getting my attention now!

[rclab]

30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m offended you’re not talking about the imminent grid collapse that Sammy will bring to the northeast.  

Good morning W007. Perhaps it’s time to create/introduce us to the Reapers tropical season sibling, The Sweeper. As always …..

[Windspeed]

Hey no need to take meteorological discussion personal. Yes, the majority of MDR solutions are OTS by the nature of distance and wave perturbations. It is what it is...

That being said, we're looking for any potential way Sam could impact the ECONUS because that's what makes the discussion interesting. When people proclaim a landfall is going to happen at this range, that is essentially wishcasting. Likewise, to say there's no way this makes ECONUS landfall is also premature. We are getting into the midrange in time period for our steering features so we can start saying something is unlikely. I have no issue with that. I mean, landfall is unlikely. Here is the big caveat though. We have a big wrinkle in the buildup stuck in the downstream pattern that the models are still ironing out even into the midrange. How does the cutoff trough feature evolve and how close does Sam get within juxtaposition. If that trough retrogrades SW, then we significantly increase the chances of a landfall, and not just Nova Scotia strong either. OTOH, If the cutoff sticks around over the coastal region/eastern Carolinas, then the door for US landfall closes shut.

Simply put, it's going to take another 48 hrs of modeling to know for certain whether Sam is OTS (beyond Bermuda) or a potential threat. No need to get dramatic about that.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

I'll be sure not to offer my thoughts next time on the most likely scenario since you and sno ski don't like it.  

Well I would rather not have a hurricane impact the area so OTS is best. 

That being said it's premature to say this will harmlessly go OTS at this stage. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Looks like an eye might be trying to form on visible but could just be a temporary feature. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Well I would rather not have a hurricane impact the area so OTS is best. 

That being said it's premature to say this will harmlessly go OTS at this stage. 

I agree but every model shows that and I doubt they are all wrong.

GFS is further OTS

[olafminesaw]

The GEFS has been quite consistent/reliable thus far

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

6Z GFS has enough members over or West of Bermuda, Sam is not 100% fish.  Canadian Hurricane Centre would issue advisories on a post-tropical cyclone, potentially still hurricane force, that might hit Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, and Sam is nice to look at, although I am getting impatient on a clear eye.  Last night bedtime I could've sworn a warm spot was appearing right where it should.  And I think after a quiet first few days, October gets active, and they're less likely to fish where there form then.