MJO812 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 34 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: It really doesnt look all that different. This include tropical storms. The other graphic just included hurricanes. I know only two hurricanes have struck Texas in October in the last century, but now that I see that TS making landfall near BPT, and with warmer than normal SSTs, I'm all in on a Texas landfall as a hurricane Just kidding. But it is possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 The GFS seems to be creating to much spurious vorticity that is causing chaos with the track of Sam. I’m hedging my bets on the euro which has been much more consistent and reasonable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 I grew up in Massapequa, remember Doria and Belle as a child. I'm really here for the New York landfall possibilities. If the 240 Euro forecast is still a weak cut off to pull Sam North surrounded by ridging to keep it from escaping East on the 12Z run, I might post in Facebook for my cousins still living up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 TROPICAL STORM SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1820211500 UTC THU SEP 23 2021THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 38.1W AT 23/1500ZPOSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NMPRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MBMAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1820211500 UTC THU SEP 23 2021THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 38.1W AT 23/1500ZPOSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 Just now, thunderbolt said: TROPICAL STORM SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1820211500 UTC THU SEP 23 2021THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 38.1W AT 23/1500ZPOSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NMPRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MBMAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. TROPICAL STORM SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1820211500 UTC THU SEP 23 2021THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 38.1W AT 23/1500ZPOSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM Can one of the moderators please change the title to a Tropical storm Sam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 52 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Not happening. Not even close bro. Totally agree. This will be a major. 6 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: Can one of the moderators please change the title to a Tropical storm Sam Chaos when I don’t start the thread 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Better than the recent slop. Yea could be a threat to the antilles and bermuda, but idk, a landfall seems unlikely with the way that the east coast trough/ cut off ULL is modeled. Need a more progressive pattern and that system to lift out and let a ridge build in over top in order to get a bonafide landfall imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 If that cutoff low is real then it's gonna be a problem. Every cutoff has adjusted west over time due to the WAR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I grew up in Massapequa, remember Doria and Belle as a child. I'm really here for the New York landfall possibilities. If the 240 Euro forecast is still a weak cut off to pull Sam North surrounded by ridging to keep it from escaping East on the 12Z run, I might post in Facebook for my cousins still living up there. Were you there for Gloria? My dad is from North Babylon and suffolk got hit really hard wind damage (wind was worse than Sandy according to him). Not sure but I think the Nassau Suffolk border was also the border between who got hurricane force winds and who didn’t on LI. I’m only 21 so Sandy is the worst storm I’ve ever witnessed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 44 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: Can one of the moderators please change the title to a Tropical storm Sam Done 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 23 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: Were you there for Gloria? My dad is from North Babylon and suffolk got hit really hard wind damage (wind was worse than Sandy according to him). Not sure but I think the Nassau Suffolk border was also the border between who got hurricane force winds and who didn’t on LI. I’m only 21 so Sandy is the worst storm I’ve ever witnessed Eye of Gloria went right over NB. I was 8, I’ll never forget it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 Quite a close call for the northern Antilles on this euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Quite a close call for the northern Antilles on this euro run. This is going to be different than the gfs Alot of ridging in the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 The Euro has a much stronger subtropical ridge and a much weaker and farther west trough compared to the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 One of the better model wars between the Euro and GFS we've seen in some time; with most recent Atlantic TCs they've either mostly been in lockstep apart from subtle differences (as with storms like Ida) or both been garbage. Both sticking to their respective guns thus far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: One of the better model wars between the Euro and GFS we've seen in some time; for the last couple of years they've either mostly been in lockstep apart from subtle differences (as with storms like Ida) or both been garbage. Gfs took a step towards the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 This latest euro run is probably going to be a landfall, if not it will be very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, hlcater said: This latest euro run is probably going to be a landfall, if not it will be very close. Begins to recurve at the last possible moment lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 At the last minute a strong trough dives into southeast Canada, eroding the ridge and saving the day. We know the 7-10 day upper flow will continue to flop around, though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 the cutoff h5 in the SE at 216 retrogrades west at 240 and looks like it opens just enough of an escape route for Sam to recurve. 216 to 240 movement of Sam is NW to N 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, yoda said: Begins to recurve at the last possible moment lol That’s still very close with ridging over the top and cutoff to the west. Very very close. 5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: At the last minute a strong trough dives into southeast Canada, eroding the ridge, saving the day. We know the 7-10 day upper flow will continue to flop around, though. Yeah. Ensembles will be interesting. Not calling for a landfall lol but anomalous SE Canada ridging and a cutoff are fairly significant red flags, even at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 The WAR will win the day as it has every time. The fact that it's so far west Day 9/10 should worry people. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The WAR will win the day as it has every time. The fact that it's so far west Day 9/10 should worry people. So true brother. Those 12z Euro ensembles are just coming out are revealing to say the least. Being west or east of the mean track at 9 days is a good thing if you like tropical cyclones. https://tinyurl.com/2f95ehuk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 I don't think enough wishcasting will get this to the east coast. Only the weakest tracks get it close and seeing how it's already strengthening and with the NHC forecasting a major, seems to be a pretty sure thing it will curve out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, cptcatz said: I don't think enough wishcasting will get this to the east coast. Only the weakest tracks get it close and seeing how it's already strengthening and with the NHC forecasting a major, seems to be a pretty sure thing it will curve out. I have never seen a tropical cyclone track over the day 9 forecasted position. The pattern doesn't support a recurve it's more like a reload sequence in the flow and you will see the WAR flex (seasonal trend). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, cptcatz said: I don't think enough wishcasting will get this to the east coast. Only the weakest tracks get it close and seeing how it's already strengthening and with the NHC forecasting a major, seems to be a pretty sure thing it will curve out. It isn't wishcasting it's assessing the pattern. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now