MJO812 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 3 hours ago, Windspeed said: OTS is not in stone and too far out. You still have a potential maritime block over New Foundland with a cutoff trough over the ECONUS. Can't rule out phase interaction with trough until we're in the midrange. Writing off to OTS at 220-240 hrs is... premature. At least allow interaction time to move into the midrange to provide better timing and positional placement of features. Gfs is coming in further south so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 Day 10 00z Euro would definitely suggest a EC LF if it were to be correct 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 2 hours ago, yoda said: Day 10 00z Euro would definitely suggest a EC LF if it were to be correct Yikes that's an ominous look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 39 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yikes that's an ominous look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jtm12180 Posted September 23, 2021 Author Share Posted September 23, 2021 Latest euro showing Sam coming to at least high-five the southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 How low future Sam stays will determine if the Euro is correct. Several troughs will be weakening the ridge to its north and subsequently cause him to head further north but eventually the WAR will rebuild. How far north he gets before the WAR rebuilds will be key. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 Majority of the 06z EPS members still keeping it quite low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 Still pretty far out there though in terms of time. As I usually do with MDR systems, I’m not really fully on board until I see it at Antilles. That’ll be a key point as we’ll know whether it’s taking the first potential escape route into the ridge weakness or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: Majority of the 06z EPS members still keeping it quite low... I'm surprised it's beating the "south=weaker" drum, since the more southerly track will put 18/Sam through the warmest possible water in front of it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: I'm surprised it's beating the "south=weaker" drum, since the more southerly track will put 18/Sam through the warmest possible water in front of it. Euro is notoriously bad with modeling TC intensity so not much to say in this regard. Lower resolution ensembles don't help in this regard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 We have Sam. Let the Dr. Seuss'ing begin. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sam Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SAM, THE 18TH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON... ...NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.9N 38.1W ABOUT 1745 MI...2805 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sam was located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 38.1 West. Sam is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next several days, but with a gradual slowdown in forward motion. Recent sallite wind data indicates maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and Sam is now forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow and be near major hurricane intensity by the end of the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 Tropical Storm Sam Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 Overnight and this morning, the satellite structure of the tropical cyclone has been improving, with prominent curved bands, and obvious low-level cloud motions that indicate the circulation is becoming established within the convection. In particular, an SSMIS microwave pass at 0653 UTC indicated a substantial improvement in the convective structure, with a well-defined curved band wrapping three-quarters of the way around the center in both the 91- and 37-GHz channels. ASCAT-B wind retrievals at 1234 UTC also indicated a tight, well-defined circulation had formed, with peak winds of 44-kt on the north side of the vortex. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are now T3.5/55-kt from SAB and T2.5/35-kt from TAFB. In addition, the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON were at 35-kt and 43-kt respectively. Given the recent scatterometer data, the intensity has been set to 45-kt for this advisory. Thus, Tropical Depression 18 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Sam. It is noteworthy that this is the 2nd earliest formation of the 18th named storm in the Atlantic basin, moving ahead of the 2005 hurricane season, and only trailing last year. Sam continues to move to the west-northwest with an estimated motion at 280/14 kt. A prominent mid-level ridge remains entrenched to the north of the cyclone, and this feature should continue to steer Sam to the west-northwest over the next 2-3 days. Over this period, the ridge orientation actually shifts more westward ahead of the cyclone as a deep-layer trough digs in well northeast of Sam. This gradual change in the synoptic pattern should also result in a slowdown in Sam's forward motion over the next 72 hours. While the track guidance remains in good agreement over this period, larger spread begins to take shape beyond the day 3 forecast. Similar to yesterday, the ECMWF model and its ensemble mean flanks the southwest side of the guidance envelop, while the GFS is on the northeast side by day 5. These differences appear to be partially related to the mid-level ridge intensity on the western end, which could begin to be eroded by a mid-latitude trough off the eastern United States in 120-h. In addition, differences in both the size and intensity of Sam may also play a role in its ultimate track evolution. For this advisory, the latest NHC track forecast remains close to the consensus aids TCVN and TCVE, which represents a slight shift westward and a bit faster motion compared to the previous forecast. Because Sam is forecast to slow down, it remains too early to determine what impacts, direct or indirect, could be felt by the Lesser Antilles by this cyclone. The previously mentioned SSMIS microwave imagery also indicated that the low-level center has become better aligned with the mid-level vortex, perhaps a bit earlier than anticipated given the scatterometer data from last night. This improvement in structure, combined with favorable low vertical wind shear under 10 kt and warm 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures, argues for significant intensification. In fact, the GFS-SHIPS rapid intensification index now give Sam a 39 percent chance of a 65-kt increase over the next 72 hours, which is more than 7 times the climatological value. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast has been raised quite a bit from the prior one, especially in the short-term. The latest forecast now makes Sam a hurricane in 36 hours, and a major hurricane in 72 hours. This intensity forecast is just a shade under the latest HCCA consensus aid. Thereafter, a more gradual intensification rate is forecast. By this period it is possible that Sam could undergo hard to predict inner-core changes such as eyewall replacement cycles. In addition, the ECMWF-SHIPS suggests that the shear may also increase a little in days 4-5 which also argues for a bit slower rate of intensification for this period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 10.9N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 11.3N 40.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 11.9N 42.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 12.3N 45.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 12.7N 46.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 13.2N 48.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 13.7N 49.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 15.3N 52.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 17.4N 55.2W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 larry 2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 14 minutes ago, Windspeed said: We have Sam. Let the Dr. Seuss'ing begin. This year's list has been good for memes/pop culture references, especially recently. You had Peter (Griffin)/Peter Rose Peter & Rose dissipating (Petered out/Rose..bud) There's also a locomotive in The Railway Series/Thomas the Tank Engine & Friends named "Peter Sam." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, hlcater said: larry 2.0 It’ll be less ugly. Larry was born special but this one actually has a nice look. that said…named before 40w and it’s nearly October…so RIP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 13 minutes ago, hlcater said: larry 2.0 Maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 It's funny how people on here are saying it's going ots. Can we at least track it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: It's funny how people on here are saying it's going ots. Can we at least track it? Agreed the seasonal pattern favors landfallers actually. The anomaly has been the other thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 17 minutes ago, hlcater said: larry 2.0 Nope but thanks for playing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 These are the historic tracks in September/October within 200 NM of the NHC day 5 forecast point. Most recurve out to sea, a few makes to the US southeast, a few to the US northeast, and a few to Atlantic Canada. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 13 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: These are the historic tracks in September/October within 200 NM of the NHC day 5 forecast point. Most recurve out to sea, a few makes to the US southeast, a few to the US northeast, and a few to Atlantic Canada. Why would your starting point be a day 5 projection subject to forecast error instead of where the storm is now? Oh wait, because that’s less fun and has a way higher percentage of OTS. unamed 1893 would be alright tho…looks like the only realistic post 9/20. I personally would like to see inez 2. That would be an insanely fun storm to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 still not interested 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, Tezeta said: Why would your starting point be a day 5 projection subject to forecast error instead of where the storm is now? Oh wait, because that’s less fun and has a way higher percentage of OTS. unamed 1893 would be alright tho…looks like the only realistic post 9/20. I personally would like to see inez 2. That would be an insanely fun storm to track. lol I didn't even look at that. I was just curious where from Day 5 onward it would look like. The average track error at Day 5 is 172 NM so it's not completely without basis. I mean you could run all storms from the current point and see what it looks like if you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 Just now, OSUmetstud said: lol I didn't even look at that. I was just curious where from Day 5 onward it would look like. The average track error at Day 5 is 172 NM so it's not completely without basis. I mean you could run all storms from the current point and see what it looks like if you want. I took a look, which is why I think Inez would be what I am rooting for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 It really doesnt look all that different. This include tropical storms. The other graphic just included hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 54 minutes ago, hlcater said: larry 2.0 Better than the recent slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Better than the recent slop. Not happening. Not even close bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 Gfs might pull Sam into Maine or Canada . Big changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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