SnowenOutThere Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 GFS recurves it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: GFS recurves it. Gfs once again further south Still correcting southward 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 18z vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said: Then the rug gets pulled out This far out that’s usually the expectation, but that’s the business. Still worth tracking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cat Lady Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Gfs once again further south Still correcting southward Dangerous to say "correcting" - its definitely adjusting, but it's wishcasting to say the southern bias is more accurate this far out. I'm definitely watching out for US landfalls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 This system will be a problem for someone. Models correcting SW, lots of ridging and closed lows around. EPS is very ominous. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 42 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: This system will be a problem for someone. Models correcting SW, lots of ridging and closed lows around. EPS is very ominous. Sam can be a big problem with the NAO tumbling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 GFS has the vortex initialized at ~8.6N. Invest position also looks way too far south. I'm guessing it's actually at 10.5N-11N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 Looks like GFS at hour 180 is north compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 1 minute ago, thunderbolt said: Looks like GFS at hour 180 is north compared to 18z And it’s a fish storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: Looks like GFS at hour 180 is north compared to 18z 4 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: And it’s a fish storm Gfs would be the last model I would use if the blocking is right. It struggles so bad even during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs would be the last model I would use if the blocking is right. It struggles so bad even during the winter. I totally agree with you brother I’m just telling you what the model showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: I totally agree with you brother I’m just telling you what the model showed Definitely I'm here with one eye open. Long ways to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 More riding on the CMC compared to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 Looks like the 00z Euro at Day 10 would suggest that Sam would feel some tug northwest with the trough moving through in NE US... but not enough for a recurve imo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 10 hours ago, Amped said: GFS has the vortex initialized at ~8.6N. Invest position also looks way too far south. I'm guessing it's actually at 10.5N-11N. Update: Visible satellite supports a 10.5N center. The 12z early cycle guidance has it at 10N. Still needs another cycle or 2 to close the gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 Gfs is way ots. Blocking isn't even close to what the Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 The Euro would end up a fish storm too. Most guidance has it that way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is way ots. Blocking isn't even close to what the Euro shows. GFS has the thing 600 miles EAST of Bermuda for goodness sake 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is way ots. Blocking isn't even close to what the Euro shows. Euro just doesn't dig the troff. Neither model handles the pattern well 8 days out and they don't even have the T0 position right. Climo will probably win out here and it will end up re curving, as most ensembles show. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, Amped said: Euro just doesn't dig the troff. Neither model handles the pattern well 8 days out and they don't even have the T0 position right. Climo will probably win out here and it will end up re curving, as most ensembles show. Climb doesn't really exist anymore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 Cmc is further south than the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 Cmc vs gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 This time of year, any erosion in the ridging is gonna lead to a recurve. Yes it may get closer, but someone posted how anomolous it is for a storm originating east of 55W to reach USML in October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 24 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: This time of year, any erosion in the ridging is gonna lead to a recurve. Yes it may get closer, but someone posted how anomolous it is for a storm originating east of 55W to reach USML in October. Agree Euro has an opening and will go ots from here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 Looks like that's that for this one. Models showing yet another wave developing behind this one though... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 OTS is not in stone and too far out. You still have a potential maritime block over New Foundland with a cutoff trough over the ECONUS. Can't rule out phase interaction with trough until we're in the midrange. Writing off to OTS at 220-240 hrs is... premature.At least allow interaction time to move into the midrange to provide better timing and positional placement of features. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 ...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.. ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 22 Location: 10.1°N 33.9°W Moving: W at 15 mph Min pressure: 1008 mb Max sustained: 35 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 Wow NHC already forecasting for a major this early, this might be the strongest 5 day for an initial forecast I’ve ever seen for the Atlantic. If i remember correctly I think the highest beforehand was 95 kts with Ida, Larry, and a group of other hurricanes though I can’t quite remember which ones 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 So far September has been very underwhelming though Larry was impressive. A lot of sheared OTS storms but that's very likely to change and it starts with this system. Although it's likely to go OTS it has a better chance of impacting the islands and even the east coast given the extremely complex setup. A lot of ridges and closed lows will make the track forecasts a lot more challenging than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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