StormchaserChuck! Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 ^spells a big MidAtlantic hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 Pretty cool, it's in the low SLP part of the -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 Sams ACE is at 48.8. Will be in the top 10 of all time Atlantic hurricanes by tomorrow. Likely finishes in the top 5-6 all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 Sam has one more +26°C warm eddy to cross on its trek across the Gulf Stream. After that the SSTs drop off dramatically. However, ET transition should begin tomorrow with the trough ejecting off of Eastern Canada. Presentation is pretty darn good for a hurricane at ~40°N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 Eye is back out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 Wow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Wow I don't think we'll have to wait long for a Cat 2/3 with a solid eye making landfall near the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I don't think we'll have to wait long for a Cat 2/3 with a solid eye making landfall near the NYC area. Water Temperatures north of the gulf stream near the NYC area range from 21-24 C. Not sure what the average is but how soon would you expect an increase to 26 C(minimum requirement for TC). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 Yeah, I'll reiterate wow here. Sam looks like it has reintensified this evening as it crossed over a +26 warm eddy within the Gulf Stream. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Yeah, I'll reiterate wow here. Sam looks like it has reintensified this evening as it crossed over a +26 warm eddy within the Gulf Stream. Wish we had recon certainty looks better than 100 mph. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 Very impressive looking storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 Don't ever recall seeing such mature concentric eyewalls this far north. I suppose this type of thing was always possible as long as OHC is sufficient enough to support intense lapse rates and convection. Of course, colder upper tropospheric temps this time of year at this latitude combined with +26°C ought to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 In recent times, hurricane Bob was impressive looking with a well defined eye as it passed to the east of the Maryland Delaware coast. Not as well defined looking as Sam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 18 minutes ago, lee59 said: In recent times, hurricane Bob was impressive looking with a well defined eye as it passed to the east of the Maryland Delaware coast. Not as well defined looking as Sam. I hope one day we can get computer programs that can initialize past storms and the atmospheric conditions around them and show us how they exactly looked structurally proceding and at landfall or as close to reality as possible. I always wanted to see how storms like the 1938 and 1944 hurricanes, hurricane carol, 1935 hurricane, hurricane Hazel etc. would have looked with our current technology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 Sam is one of the greats. An all-timer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 That outer eye is huge. Also probably stronger than 85kts. I'm guessing this is probably a CAT3 at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 Sam still had a surprise up its sleeve tonight, with its eye becoming warmer on satellite images along with a stronger eyewall. Microwave data from earlier today indicated that Sam has been undergoing a concentric eyewall cycle, and it appears that the inner eyewall has become better defined. Regardless, it is not every day you see a hurricane with that clear of an eye near 40N, and the intensity estimates the evening range from 90-100 kt. Given the concentric eyewalls, the initial wind speed is conservatively raised to 90 kt, but it could be higher. High-resolution NOAA OISST data indicate that Sam is moving near a warm eddy along the north wall of the Gulf Stream. This favorable factor, in addition to low shear, should keep Sam's weakening to a minimum in the near term. Later on, although the shear increases rapidly and SSTs fall quickly, Sam is expected to transition into a powerful extratropical cyclone late Monday or early Tuesday due to a mid-latitude trough interaction well east of Newfoundland. This should cause extratropical Sam to maintain hurricane-force winds until early Wednesday. A slow weakening is expected thereafter as it slowly spins down as an occluded low. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast. Sam is moving faster, now 050/17 kt. A northeastward motion and continued acceleration is forecast through Monday as the cyclone gets caught in southwesterly flow ahead of the mid-latitude trough. The tropical cyclone is expected to be the main surface low center as it merges with the trough in a couple days, hooking briefly to the left. Thereafter, the system should resume a northeastward motion and gradually turn northward and even westward at long range as it moves around another trough. Model guidance is close to the previous cycle, even with the loopy track, and the new NHC forecast is basically just an update of the last advisory. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 39.3N 51.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 41.6N 47.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 46.5N 42.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 50.4N 40.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 06/0000Z 50.8N 38.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 06/1200Z 51.6N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/0000Z 54.5N 28.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/0000Z 61.0N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0000Z 61.5N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 I have always theorized that the Gulf Stream limits upwelling as warm water is moving fast. I think that may have aided Sam in reaching near maximum possible intensity given water temps. Overall a true classic MDR hurricane. Had it been a couple hundred miles west it would be an all timer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 Sam is now among the top 10 biggest ACE producers, kicking down Matthew. It should pass Esther and Allen on the next advisory to reach 8th. It might stay tropical long enough today even supplant Luis and reach 7th place. Going to be a close call on Inez. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 Sam has intensified for the 3rd time & now at 105 mph, is expected to weaken for a Final time . . . ACE is almost at 53 units Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 I do want to mention that the NHC did say on the Previous Advisory that Sam is likely stronger than the current intensity . . . Might be upgraded to a CAT 3 on the 3rd Peak . . . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 11 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: I do want to mention that the NHC did say on the Previous Advisory that Sam is likely stronger than the current intensity . . . Might be upgraded to a CAT 3 on the 3rd Peak . . . Clearly weakening again as it moves over cooler waters. I agree though it likely peaked around 120mph yesterday evening though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 Going to be real close with Luis on the 5PM AST package if it hasn't transitioned by then. I think it will fall just short with transition occurring during the evening. Over calculated the numbers a smidgen. Inez is safe at this point. It really needs to stay tropical until 11PM AST and I don't think that will happen now. Transition is already underway.EDIT: Sam did indeed have enough tropical fire left in the furnace to remain a classified TC on 11PM AST/3AM GMT; therefore, Sam surpassed Luis before succumbing to the frontal trough. Still a very powerful PT low for any maritime shipping interests. That's all, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 The list posted a page before had Donna, Carrie and Esther listed in the top 10; of course they were pre-satellite era hurricanes. Everything prior to satellite archive is based on shipping and land obs in and around those earlier historical systems that were reanalysized for ACE. So it might be best to post the top 10 since '66, which here that is along with a nice write-up by Brian McNoldy, a TC Researcher at The Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami University.http://bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2021/10/hurricane-sam-clinches-its-place-in.htmlThis places Sam in the top five during the satellite era. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 Sammy had one heck of a run. Respect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 2 hours ago, OSUmetstud said: Beautiful, I could watch that all day long... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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