Wannabehippie Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 13 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Not bad, Sam. Trying to become annular? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Trying to become annular?No as it still has banding features. With trough interaction commencing, I doubt it ever will. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 30 Location: 25.0°N 61.2°W Moving: NNW at 16 mph Min pressure: 938 mb Max sustained: 145 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 150kts FL. No SFMR data so im interested to see what the sonde shows. 0.85 reduction is 130kts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 What an awesome storm. Back near peak intensity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 10 hours ago, Windspeed said: Not bad, Sam. Reminds me of when all the storms were in the NEAtlantic, near Europe a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Sam Eye AM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Already at 38 ACE. Likely finishes at 50+ Chance to put it into the top 10 in the Atlantic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: What an awesome storm. Back near peak intensity. This has been quite the specimen for sure. And absolutely gorgeous this morning to boot 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 I think today will be Sam's last shot at making becoming a CAT 5. It is just below that now. After today, it will start to accelerate north, then NE/NNE in to cooler waters. 11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 1 Location: 28.4°N 61.8°W Moving: N at 21 mph Min pressure: 936 mb Max sustained: 150 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 937mb on second pass, and confirmed by NHC on 2pm AST advisory. 2:00 PM AST Fri Oct 1 Location: 29.1°N 61.9°W Moving: N at 21 mph Min pressure: 937 mb Max sustained: 150 mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 looks good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Same as it has looked for 3 days but moving faster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Pretty incredible to maintain this intensity for this long these don’t happen every year… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Sam has been a Category 4 Major Hurricane for over 3.5 days. That's incredible. Gotta go all the way back to Irma (2017) to find an Atlantic hurricane this intense for such a long duration. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 On 9/26/2021 at 3:58 PM, OSUmetstud said: It might be a 5 now. But it was stronger a few hours before the ERC started. Maybe they'll find it on the next pass. FWIW, a TC expert whom I trust told me that the available information *does* suggest cat 5 intensity, and that an upgrade in post-storm analysis is likely. So you were correct, and I was wrong. Just thought I owed it to you to share that information. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Based on the latest satellite loop, Sam looks like it is going NNE now. NHC will probably update that at the 8pm advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 What is the threshold for farthest north 130 kt+ hurricane in the open atlantic? Sam has to be approaching it at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 1 hour ago, jpeters3 said: FWIW, a TC expert whom I trust told me that the available information *does* suggest cat 5 intensity, and that an upgrade in post-storm analysis is likely. So you were correct, and I was wrong. Just thought I owed it to you to share that information. No matter what happens, you should know your contributions are appreciated. I’m sure I’m not the only one that feels this way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Pretty incredible to maintain this intensity for this long these don’t happen every year… Looking forward to a very long sat animation from start to finish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Slight weakening. 11:00 PM AST Fri Oct 1 Location: 31.4°N 61.2°W Moving: NNE at 17 mph Min pressure: 940 mb Max sustained: 145 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Phasing porn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Amped said: Phasing porn Extratropical Sam might be almost as impressive as tropical Sam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Sam has cleared out a symmetrical, beautiful eye once again. This is an incredible storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Sams ACE is up to 44.3, if it hits 51 it would put it into the top 10 all time of ACE in the Atlantic. http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic Storm Year Peak classification ACE Duration Hurricane Ivan 2004 Category 5 hurricane 70.4 23 days Hurricane Irma 2017 Category 5 hurricane 64.9 13 days Hurricane Isabel 2003 Category 5 hurricane 63.3 14 days Hurricane Donna 1960 Category 4 hurricane 57.6 16 days Hurricane Carrie 1957 Category 4 hurricane 55.8 21 days Hurricane Inez 1966 Category 4 hurricane 54.6 21 days Hurricane Luis 1995 Category 4 hurricane 53.5 16 days Hurricane Allen 1980 Category 5 hurricane 52.3 12 days Hurricane Esther 1961 Category 5 hurricane 52.2 18 days Hurricane Matthew 2016 Category 5 hurricane 50.9 12 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Sam has maintained a ridiculous structure for a combination of latitude and Larry's cool wake. There is a cool eddy just NW of Sam's core that dips below 26°C, a region that Larry churned up a few weeks ago. Marginal OHC between 26-27°C exist further down the forecast track as baroclinic enhancement begins however. That should allow Sam to remain a strong hurricane for several more days, even though its time as a Category 4 may only linger a little further into Saturday afternoon. That puts Sam at over 4.25 days at that category since the 4AM AST package on Tuesday morning.This thing still looks gorgeous on visible with a lot of symmetry and could make it well into Sunday as a major hurricane. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: Sam has maintained a ridiculous structure for a combination of latitude and Larry's cool wake. There is a cool eddy just NW of Sam's core that dips below 26°C, a region that Larry churned up a few weeks ago. Marginal OHC between 26-27°C exist further down the forecast track as baroclinic enhancement begins however. That should allow Sam to remain a strong hurricane for several more days, even though its time as a Category 4 may only linger a little further into Saturday afternoon. That puts Sam at over 4.25 days at that category since the 4AM AST package on Tuesday morning. This thing still looks gorgeous on visible with a lot of symmetry and could make it well into Sunday as a major hurricane. One of the great fish storms in history. Sam deserved a landfall somewhere just to be remembered (though I’m sure whoever would’ve been impacted would disagree!). Just crazy all the days we’ve woken up to a beautiful eye on satellite imagery 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Blasting along now at 17 mph. Kinda surprised forward speed hasn't effected it's structure more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Looks better than Gonzalo 2014 at this latitude. Might join Ophelia 2011 and Ophelia 2017 for furthest north major hurricane in recent times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: One of the great fish storms in history. Sam deserved a landfall somewhere just to be remembered (though I’m sure whoever would’ve been impacted would disagree!). Just crazy all the days we’ve woken up to a beautiful eye on satellite imagery Eye is becoming obscured now. Not a real surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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