Wannabehippie Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 Pressure 959MB on first pass, which is lower than the11amAST update from the NHC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 Pressure 959MB on first pass, which is lower than the11amAST update from the NHC Sam has made a nice recovery this afternoon. SSTs are still a good margin above 28°C. Probably ~28.5 at its location. Plenty of OHC to support reintensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 954.5 EXTRAP on the last pass. Reintensification continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Mon Sep 27 2021 ...SAM BEGINNING TO REGROUP AFTER WEAKENING... ...SOME REINTENSIFICATION EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 52.7W ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 52.7 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days, with an increase in forward speed beginning on Thursday. A turn to the north is expected by Friday. On the forecast track, Sam will pass well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands Wednesday and Thursday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that the maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is expected through tonight. Thereafter, fluctuations in intensity are possible through Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The minimum central pressure measured by the aircraft is 957 mb (28.26 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Mon Sep 27 2021 Sam's weakening trend ended earlier today, with the intensity likely bottoming out between the issuance of the previous advisory and now. Over the past few hours, microwave data and satellite imagery indicate that the inner core and eyewall of the hurricane are making a comeback. There is now a clear eye in visible imagery, convective cloud tops colder than -65 degrees C wrap completely around the center, and the convective mass is becoming more circular once again. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating Sam indicates the central pressure has dropped to 957 mb, with peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 106 kt, SFMR values of 100 kt, and dropsonde surface winds of 102 kt. Given possible minor undersampling and the recent dropping of the hurricane's pressure, the initial advisory intensity is set at 105 kt. Sam continues to move northwest, or 315/8 kt. The hurricane is expected to continue this northwestward motion around a subtropical ridge over the next few days. By late Thursday or early Friday a turn toward the north is anticipated as Sam rounds the western periphery of the ridge. The cyclone should begin to gradually accelerate during that time in the increasing flow ahead of a mid- to upper-level trough emerging off the U.S. east coast later this week. Model guidance remains in very good agreement on this scenario and the latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous one, and lies near tightly clustered consensus track guidance. The southwesterly winds that brought in some dry air and disrupted Sam's impressive satellite appearance last night appear to have abated. As long as environmental winds surrounding the hurricane remain light, then the dry air surrounding the cyclone should not have as much of an impact on the hurricane's strength over the next few days. Based on the improving inner-core structure appearance of Sam, re-strengthening is forecast over the next 12 h. Thereafter, mainly minor fluctuations in intensity are indicated through 72 h. Beyond that time, increasing vertical wind shear and decreasing sea-surface temperatures should cause Sam to weaken. The latest NHC intensity forecast was nudged slightly upward through 36 h and is on the high end of the guidance. Thereafter, no changes were made, and that portion of the forecast is close to the various multimodel consensus solutions. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Sam are affecting the Leeward Islands and will spread to portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by Thursday or Friday. Significant swells will likely reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and local officials through the upcoming weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 16.3N 52.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 17.0N 53.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 17.8N 54.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 18.8N 55.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 19.8N 57.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 21.2N 59.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 22.9N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 27.8N 62.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 34.7N 59.6W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 Gettings spoiled by these reconnaissance radar scans. This needs to become a thing. Bless the meteorology college dude providing these on his own time. Last scan looks like an ongoing merger to me. But of course there are multiple banding features around the core. Any continued VWS is going to help spur ongoing replacement cycles at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 That was a quick erc. Latest recon shows outer eyewall is now stronger. Almost no sigs of an outer eyewall from the last mission. Mysterious storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 That was a quick erc. Latest recon shows outer eyewall is now stronger. Almost no sigs of an outer eyewall from the last mission. Mysterious storm.That seems to support this latest MW scan as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Is it me or is same looking a little annularish suddenly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 It's just you. Plenty of banding still around 80% of the core. Annulars generally require marginal SSTs and light east-southeast shear to offset beta shear. That helps strip banding and forces the vortex upright. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
floridapirate Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Outside of boards like this, is anyone aware of Sam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 20 minutes ago, floridapirate said: Outside of boards like this, is anyone aware of Sam? No I'm on other forums and they aren't tracking this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 1 hour ago, floridapirate said: Outside of boards like this, is anyone aware of Sam? When I was in a mental hospital when Cat 5 Micheal was making landfall, it was like a global blackout.. quietest I've ever experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 I didn't save the Tweet, but a couple of days ago someone on Weather Twitter screencapped some news website asking if Sam was going to be the next Sandy. For the laughs and disappointment someone could hype that much. Now that no model brings it close, out of sight, out of mind. That and the eye is warming. Eyewall convection still cold, but the eye itself, pretty meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 4 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: When I was in a mental hospital when Cat 5 Micheal was making landfall, it was like a global blackout.. quietest I've ever experienced. I’m not sure Michael was actually a 5. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Sam's eye was clear earlier today, but it has become obscured again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 3 hours ago, Tezeta said: I’m not sure Michael was actually a 5. Actually, there’s more evidential data to support 145 kt than 135 kt…much less 140 kt. SImply put, It was most certainly a Cat 5. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said: Actually, there’s more evidential data to support 145 kt than 135 kt…much less 140 kt. SImply put, It was most certainly a Cat 5. That “evidential” data is subject to human interpretation and assumptions. SFMR has a high bias and the rest of the data is just hand waving about flight level reductions and stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 15 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said: Michael's upgrade was based on FL winds, and observed damage you ****ing moron. read it for yourself https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142018_Michael.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 The main reason why Michael was upgraded to a CAT 5 was because of the Wind reports & Damage at landfall . . . @Tezeta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 What in the Sam HELL? A Michael Cat 5 debate? Really?! lol.. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Meanwhile, Sam-Eye-Am there. Upper level cloud debris is clearing out... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Windspeed said: What in the Sam HELL? A Michael Cat 5 debate? Really?! lol.. And the debate is getting a bit nasty too. Maybe it is anger that Sam and these two storms to follow will be only for the fishes? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saltysenior2 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 are 3 fishes called a school ?? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 And the debate is getting a bit nasty too. Maybe it is anger that Sam and these two storms to follow will be only for the fishes?I mean, whatever. I am sure there are plenty that only follow for landfalls. I enjoy tracking them regardless. This has already been a better CV season than last year with Larry (which did landfall) and Sam, the strongest MDR system since Lorenzo. 2020 Paulette was kind of meh. Really, Teddy was the only quality MDR system last year. At any rate, it's far from dead or boring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 Eye definitely not circular, but it is visible again on satellite photos. Also looks like Sam is a bit lopsided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 I was watching the imagery and found it ironic that it looks like an eye! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 28 Location: 18.4°N 55.6°W Moving: NW at 9 mph Min pressure: 944 mb Max sustained: 140 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 Ring of very intense convection now completely surrounding the eye. This is getting interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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