Major Hurricane Sam

[StormchaserChuck!]

Here are some good recent analogs to NHC forecasted track.. 

Jerry 2019, Maria 2011, Ophelia 2011, Fiona 2010, Bill 2009

5/5 were misses/outtosea by alot. 

[Tezeta]

The NHC will name every shit storm but god forbid they upgrade an obvious 5

[StormchaserChuck!]

Hot spot though

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season#/media/File:2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png 

[NorthHillsWx]

It’s really, really difficult to find a more beautiful satellite structure of an Atlantic hurricane than the one we have with Sam right now. 

[Windspeed]

Hope this presentation can persist until recon gets there. Outer banding is intensifying but perhaps wouldn't be quick enough to mature an ERWC to weaken it prior to recon, but you never know.

[Amped]

Models showing only small fluctuations in inensity over the next few days.  Wonder how long this can stay essentially a steady state CAT4?

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET says look out Bermuda as this run’s center only barely misses it to the east and thus hits it hard with its northern and western side as still a major hurricane (although Bermuda can still probably handle it well. If I were going to have to be stuck on an island in a hurricane, I’d pick Bermuda for sure):

 

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 26.09.2021

             HURRICANE SAM        ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N  50.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182021

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 26.09.2021    0  13.9N  50.2W      947           104
    0000UTC 27.09.2021   12  14.5N  50.6W      963            88
    1200UTC 27.09.2021   24  15.4N  51.5W      970            76
    0000UTC 28.09.2021   36  16.3N  52.3W      975            66
    1200UTC 28.09.2021   48  17.1N  53.4W      976            67
    0000UTC 29.09.2021   60  17.8N  54.4W      978            61
    1200UTC 29.09.2021   72  18.6N  55.8W      978            63
    0000UTC 30.09.2021   84  19.8N  57.6W      971            72
    1200UTC 30.09.2021   96  21.1N  59.7W      966            74
    0000UTC 01.10.2021  108  23.3N  61.5W      964            79
    1200UTC 01.10.2021  120  25.9N  63.4W      962            79
    0000UTC 02.10.2021  132  29.4N  64.5W      956            85
    1200UTC 02.10.2021  144  33.7N  63.8W      943           105

[WxWatcher007]

[BYG Jacob]

2 hours ago, Tezeta said:

The NHC will name every shit storm but god forbid they upgrade an obvious 5

Not enough data to support category 5 intensity yet.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Vice-Regent]

12z Euro is crazy far south and slow at 5 days out and the portion that matters is at 7 days out. Far from settled.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

12z Euro is crazy far south and slow at 5 days out and the portion that matters is at 7 days out. Far from settled.

Gfs has Sam spinning for days near New Foundland 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

12z Euro is crazy far south and slow at 5 days out and the portion that matters is at 7 days out. Far from settled.

It's also weaker than 0z and the Ull lifts out faster on this run

[cptcatz]

Why are the 12z runs initializing such a weak storm? Euro is at 993, CMC is at 999, and GFS is at 971. We have recon data from last night proving the pressure is in the 940s and it obviously hasn't weakened. What gives? And could that affect the rest of the model run?

[WxWatcher007]

Sam is definitely making its case for a five. High altitude recon is currently out there and low level recon shouldn’t be too far behind.
 

 

[Windspeed]

Sam's relative motion actually has not changed all that much over the past 3 hours. But the core is so small / compact that it appears the slow rate is still good enough for the eyewall to replenish over unspent surface heat content without upwelling itself too much. Recon will have better data soon but it does appear that Sam has intensified.

[WxWatcher007]

5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 26
Location: 14.2°N 50.5°W
Moving: NW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 938 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

[hlcater]

I’d not be surprised to see the true intensity here north of 140kts barring any marked changes prior to the 00z fix

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Why are the 12z runs initializing such a weak storm? Euro is at 993, CMC is at 999, and GFS is at 971. We have recon data from last night proving the pressure is in the 940s and it obviously hasn't weakened. What gives? And could that affect the rest of the model run?

Yep strange 

[lee59]

If it gets near enough to the coast, here on Long Island large swells and over wash could be impressive.

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, lee59 said:

If it gets near enough to the coast, here on Long Island large swells and over wash could be impressive.

I don't think this will be anywhere near the coast.

[lee59]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I don't think this will be anywhere near the coast.

I agree but these large storms can be hundreds of miles off the coast and give large swells and over wash. 

[WxWatcher007]

Recon finally beginning to descend into Sam. Should have some inner core data coming soonish. 

[olafminesaw]

Increasingly, satellite seems to be indicating an EWRC is underway. Will be interesting to to see what recon shows

[Intensewind002]

8 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Increasingly, satellite seems to be indicating an EWRC is underway. Will be interesting to to see what recon shows

As is tradition recon arrives right after Sam’s peak 

[Windspeed]

Yes the CDO is giving strong hints of an outer eyewall. Recon has probably arrived at post-peak. Perhaps how low the pressure is now will be a good indicators of how strong it was four-to-six hours ago.

[SnowLover22]

3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Yes the CDO is giving strong hints of an outer eyewall. Recon has probably arrived at post-peak. Perhaps how low the pressure is now will be a good indicators of how strong it was four-to-six hours ago.

It very well could have been a cat 5 and we might never know, lets see what recon has to say. 

[sojitodd]

Damn it is a good thing this is going to curve out. Nobody needs this landfalling anywhere. Beautiful on satellite though.

[Amped]

23 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Yes the CDO is giving strong hints of an outer eyewall. Recon has probably arrived at post-peak. Perhaps how low the pressure is now will be a good indicators of how strong it was four-to-six hours ago.

The latest recon ob is hitting 64kt winds further  out than yesterday it seems.   The next set of obs will be telling.

Edit: Nope still one eyewall

[WxWatcher007]

20 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Yes the CDO is giving strong hints of an outer eyewall. Recon has probably arrived at post-peak. Perhaps how low the pressure is now will be a good indicators of how strong it was four-to-six hours ago.

Ugh. We need funding to have recon on demand.