olafminesaw Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 On 9/24/2021 at 7:09 PM, StantonParkHoya said: There’s no guarantee the low cuts off either Expand Yep, probably not very likely, I feel like it's pretty unusual this time of year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Ant vs. Nick fight fight fight fight 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 On 9/24/2021 at 6:50 PM, WxWatcher007 said: The ridge and cutoff retrograde west...how it gets there is pretty interesting too. At the risk of starting another 12 hour debate on what "close" is LOL I'll just stop there Expand Two landfalls already this season, I wouldn't argue with a third one. Not an unprecedented look either, though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 On 9/24/2021 at 7:29 PM, TheBudMan said: Ant vs. Nick fight fight fight fight Expand Now I’m sure it’s time for the Sweeper. Ref: Weather Watcher 007. As always … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Mean would still keep it away from the US, but the cutoff has trended SW a bit. This thing is basically crawling before it reaches the Antilles. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 18z tropical models took a swing right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Finally a real eye signature showing up, this thing is ready to explode. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 On 9/24/2021 at 8:04 PM, StantonParkHoya said: 18z tropical models took a swing right Expand Most likely right but we have plenty of time to track this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 The 12Z EPS 51 members have no SE US landfalls with only one that skirts the Outer Banks. However, it does have several that landfall in the NE US: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 On 9/24/2021 at 8:04 PM, StantonParkHoya said: 18z tropical models took a swing right Expand Tropical models will not handle the ULL correctly until it's game time. Euro will be very important going forward. Still the odds of an easy coast hit is probably 10% right now. The capture needs to happen for a hit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Sammy is absolutely going to town right now. Just beautiful clear out of the eye as towers go up around the eye. Need to watch for an ERC per the earlier microwave images. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Sam is now 85 mph per NHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Ho Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 Sam is really going to work right now. Likely approaching major status 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 After some dry air disruptions this morning the core looks great now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Ho Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 The latest GFS now develops a second low north of the first one ahead of Sam. Leaves the first cut-off low behind and recurves Sam and the second together. Unsure how plausible this is, why would the second low develop? Would like to hear from a met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 On 9/24/2021 at 11:02 PM, Normandy said: The latest GFS now develops a second low north of the first one ahead of Sam. Leaves the first cut-off low behind and recurves Sam and the second together. Unsure how plausible this is, why would the second low develop? Would like to hear from a met Expand The GFS model also showed a Trough with the Cut-off Low & the Action also develops the 2nd Low Pressure area you're talking about . . . But it drifts since it's also cut off from the Jet Stream until it catches it later on . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 In this blocking pattern expect changes in every run through midweek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 On 9/24/2021 at 11:09 PM, jets said: In this blocking pattern expect changes in every run through midweek Expand 18z eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 On 9/25/2021 at 2:10 AM, MJO812 said: 18z eps Expand This looks south with the northern Antilles more in the mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Raw Adt up to 5.3. The eye is clearing out. Should be a major by 5am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 NHC now has Sam as a 100 mph CAT 2 Hurricane, but it's likely stronger than that . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Sam's really been shedding the bands. Do we think this is just a temporary pulse down or maybe the beginning of some kind of annular transition? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 On 9/25/2021 at 2:48 AM, tiger_deF said: Sam's really been shedding the bands. Do we think this is just a temporary pulse down or maybe the beginning of some kind of annular transition? Expand No, annular hurricanes generally require marginal SSTs and light southeasterly shear. Sam has neither nor is expected to have either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Too bad there's no recon. This is likely intensifying at close to the same rate as Ida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 On 9/25/2021 at 3:13 AM, Amped said: Too bad there's no recon. This is likely intensifying at close to the same rate as Ida. Expand It already achieved technical RI once from a TD to a high-end TS in less than 24 hours. I've noticed (with Michael, Ida and a few others in recent years) that these TCs which become high-end majors (AOA 120kt) tend to do so in two bursts, with a 12-24 hour leveling off in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 On 9/25/2021 at 2:48 AM, tiger_deF said: Sam's really been shedding the bands. Do we think this is just a temporary pulse down or maybe the beginning of some kind of annular transition? Expand The eye is also too small for an annular storm currently. Annular storms tend to have a relatively low ratio of eye:storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 NAO is going negative Will this impact the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 0z Gfs is showing Sam hooking left into Nova Scotia now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 00z Euro is a recurve out by Bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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