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Major Hurricane Sam


Jtm12180
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50 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The ridge and cutoff retrograde west...how it gets there is pretty interesting too.

At the risk of starting another 12 hour debate on what "close" is LOL I'll just stop there :lol: 

ecmwf_z500a_atl_10.png

Two landfalls already this season, I wouldn't argue with a third one.  Not an unprecedented look either, though :weenie:

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The latest GFS now develops a second low north of the first one ahead of Sam.  Leaves the first cut-off low behind and recurves Sam and the second together.  Unsure how plausible this is, why would the second low develop?  Would like to hear from a met

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1 minute ago, Normandy said:

The latest GFS now develops a second low north of the first one ahead of Sam.  Leaves the first cut-off low behind and recurves Sam and the second together.  Unsure how plausible this is, why would the second low develop?  Would like to hear from a met

The GFS model also showed a Trough with the Cut-off Low & the Action also develops the 2nd Low Pressure area you're talking about . . . But it drifts since it's also cut off from the Jet Stream until it catches it later on . . . 

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14 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Sam's really been shedding the bands. Do we think this is just a temporary pulse down or maybe the beginning of some kind of annular transition?

23b5fe06-33fb-4f7c-ada8-619451abca5b.jpg

No, annular hurricanes generally require marginal SSTs and light southeasterly shear. Sam has neither nor is expected to have either.

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1 minute ago, Amped said:

Too bad there's no recon. This is likely intensifying at close to the same rate as Ida.

It already achieved technical RI once from a TD to a high-end TS in less than 24 hours.

I've noticed (with Michael, Ida and a few others in recent years) that these TCs which become high-end majors (AOA 120kt) tend to do so in two bursts, with a 12-24 hour leveling off in between.

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