Fall Trends for all long term NWS COOP sites for Chester County PA - does the winter remember what happens in November??

[ChescoWx]

Fall season (September-November) average temperatures and trend lines by decade for all available long running Chester County PA NWS COOP Sites. Also a list of the Top 10 individual chilliest and warmest fall seasons by location. Does a chilly fall mean more snow?? stay tuned....

[CoolHandMike]

Now that's some interesting data. Surprising to see less (or even not at all) 2000's data in the "warmest" category. I also think it'd be interesting to see each plot graphed separately just for clarification. Looking forward to more data, thanks for taking the time to make this!

[ChescoWx]

11 hours ago, CoolHandMike said:

Now that's some interesting data. Surprising to see less (or even not at all) 2000's data in the "warmest" category. I also think it'd be interesting to see each plot graphed separately just for clarification. Looking forward to more data, thanks for taking the time to make this!

Thanks Mike! I always hope I don't bore folks with some of this data but my old finance background - always has me doing some data analytics. The facts are so often different than what we feel....

Paul

[KamuSnow]

On 9/13/2021 at 8:17 PM, ChescoWx said:

Fall season (September-November) average temperatures and trend lines by decade for all available long running Chester County PA NWS COOP Sites. Also a list of the Top 10 individual chilliest and warmest fall seasons by location. Does a chilly fall mean more snow?? stay tuned....

Looking at these charts, I would say that a chilly fall does not mean more snow. Neither does a warm fall apparently! This has been discussed before, but I'm not a fan of early winter weather because usually it evolves into a boring winter (exceptions to every rule of course!). Maybe do a chart of the fall temps preceding the snowier winters?

Glenmore has one year with a cool fall that precedes a snowy winter, 2013, but the other sites don't have 2013 anywhere in the top ten. No doubt there were some cool falls preceding a snowy winter, but mostly before my time it appears.

[ChescoWx]

So in looking at the data - both the Top 10 cool falls and warm falls led to well below normal snow seasons (normal in Chester County PA is 36" of snow) ....so we can't say the ENTIRE fall season is a strong predictor of the upcoming winter snow season