2021-22 Winter Discussion

[A-L-E-K]

WAD

[snowman33]

9 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Honestly please keep posting as much as you can, it helps me get through the boring times and reminds me that I'm not the only goofball wasting away over little water crystals fluttering down from above. 

I just tell people I storm chase, sounds much cooler.

What I don't tell people is that much of the time I'm chasing something that can't be found.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

WAD

Why do I not remember what this stands for lol? Warm & dry?

[Cartier God]

38 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Why do I not remember what this stands for lol? Warm & dry?

Warm air damming? lol

[Hoosier]

On 11/24/2021 at 10:06 AM, michsnowfreak said:

Why do I not remember what this stands for lol? Warm & dry?

 

On 11/24/2021 at 10:48 AM, Cartier God said:

Warm air damming? lol

One of you is definitely right.

[A-L-E-K]

warm air damming is when warm air off the lake gets wedged up against our beautiful skyline

[RogueWaves]

15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yes temps were very cold. February is our "can't go wrong" month anymore.  Last Winter was on its way to being extremely meh, outside of a perfect Christmas snowfall, then as usual February came along and bam. Deep snow and deep cold. How long will you be in Florida?

Don't look now, but are we about to add onto KDTW's November snow total?? 6 more days..6 more ways.

So, what is "avg" for Nov here anyways? 1.9" was mine back in Marshall where LES could contribute in many early season cold outbreaks.

[michsnowfreak]

14 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Don't look now, but are we about to add onto KDTW's November snow total?? 6 more days..6 more ways.

So, what is "avg" for Nov here anyways? 1.9" was mine back in Marshall where LES could contribute in many early season cold outbreaks.

1.9" is the svg for DTW as well for Nov.

[Chicago Storm]

the time is coming...




.

[RogueWaves]

3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

the time is coming...




.

OMG the top 9 latest years are a set of winters to forget! Better get some snow action ASAP over there

[Baum]

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

OMG the top 9 latest years are a set of winters to forget! Better get some snow action ASAP over there

probably have 20 inches down by Christmas. Fake October and November events rarely mean much in my book. 

[RogueWaves]

5 hours ago, Baum said:

probably have 20 inches down by Christmas. Fake October and November events rarely mean much in my book. 

Dittos, but you don't want to go too deep waiting on accum's either. Basically, any year starting post-Dec 5th was pure garbage. I'd rather not roll those dice. Y'all need something on the board at ORD, unless ofc, you're rooting for a lame-ass winter.

[Hoosier]

The way I look at it is that a very slow start would make it difficult to end up with an elite winter snowfall-wise, if not taking that off the table entirely.  Can still end up with a decent/snowier than avg winter, just not top tier.

[IWXwx]

Matt Leach, TV met at FWA (WPTA), lurker, and occasional poster here, is calling for a front-loaded winter for this part of the sub. I would be interested in hearing why he made that call. Any thoughts here?

[Baum]

12 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The way I look at it is that a very slow start would make it difficult to end up with an elite winter snowfall-wise, if not taking that off the table entirely.  Can still end up with a decent/snowier than avg winter, just not top tier.

Dittos, but you don't want to go too deep waiting on accum's either. Basically, any year starting post-Dec 5th was pure garbage. I'd rather not roll those dice. Y'all need something on the board at ORD, unless ofc, you're rooting for a lame-ass winter.

Rarely, in a Chicago winter do we have a real "snow" event logged at this point. I agree, if your simply focused on accumulation totals 5" of stat padders that melted on contact help in that game. But my recollection is many winters that started out WAD and flipped to cold and snowy were some of the best. To me, when the pattern shifts in our favor, and it will, it won't go to waste as it would in pre December events.

[Frog Town]

There are years where it just seems so easy for it to warm up and torch in the East. This year seems different, and watching the ridge continually fail to come east and mature is a good sign for us, IMHO.  For whatever interconnected reason, the eastern trough doesn't want to budge, and I like it!

[RogueWaves]

14 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The way I look at it is that a very slow start would make it difficult to end up with an elite winter snowfall-wise, if not taking that off the table entirely.  Can still end up with a decent/snowier than avg winter, just not top tier.

Dig a little deeper and show me which of those top 9 winters went that way? Just to sanity check my own memory, I briefly peeked at the years noted during the last 3 decades for my former region in SWMI. Of those 5, only 12-13 came near normal, most were substantially below, one 94-95 was a horrid 56% of normal. Not snowless winters by any means, but it's a game of avoid the cellar dwellers.

[RogueWaves]

1 hour ago, Frog Town said:

There are years where it just seems so easy for it to warm up and torch in the East. This year seems different, and watching the ridge continually fail to come east and mature is a good sign for us, IMHO.  For whatever interconnected reason, the eastern trough doesn't want to budge, and I like it!

Unfortunately, it's a pattern of cold NW flow mostly moisture starved clippers, and the risk is when/if it flips (nothing locks all winter) we end up on the warm side of hard cutters. Tbd ofc, but this gradient is very much like Dec 2017 so far.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

Unfortunately, it's a pattern of cold NW flow mostly moisture starved clippers, and the risk is when/if it flips (nothing locks all winter) we end up on the warm side of hard cutters. Tbd ofc, but this gradient is very much like Dec 2017 so far.

I'd take a repeat of 2017-18 in a heartbeat

[Stevo6899]

41 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I'd take a repeat of 2017-18 in a heartbeat

Gross.

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Dig a little deeper and show me which of those top 9 winters went that way? Just to sanity check my own memory, I briefly peeked at the years noted during the last 3 decades for my former region in SWMI. Of those 5, only 12-13 came near normal, most were substantially below, one 94-95 was a horrid 56% of normal. Not snowless winters by any means, but it's a game of avoid the cellar dwellers.

Was making a general point about slower than average starts and not focusing on those 9 years.

[Hoosier]

To my earlier point, here's some data.  Obviously the definition/cutoff of an "elite" snowfall winter has some subjectivity, but taking a look at the top 10 snowiest for Chicago, 9 out of 10 had high single digit or double digit snowfall totals by December 15.  The one that didn't was 1966-67, which only had 3.0" by December 15, and it took the #1 snowstorm of all-time in January 1967 to be in the mix to make it a very snowy season.  Total snow in 1966-67 was 5th highest on record.

[michsnowfreak]

58 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Gross.

Lol. It was a good winter outside of the late Feb torch. Deep snow in mid Feb. Perfect snowy christmas season. 

[Baum]

51 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

To my earlier point, here's some data.  Obviously the definition/cutoff of an "elite" snowfall winter has some subjectivity, but taking a look at the top 10 snowiest for Chicago, 9 out of 10 had high single digit or double digit snowfall totals by December 15.  The one that didn't was 1966-67, which only had 3.0" by December 15, and it took the #1 snowstorm of all-time in January 1967 to be in the mix to make it a very snowy season.  Total snow in 1966-67 was 5th highest on record.

How much snow did Chicago have last year on January 10, and what was the final season total?  As I recall folks were posting we were going to set all time futility records in mid January and I think that idea got squelched pronto. Don't have the time to look up last year but I'd love to see how the back half played out, and I know December was a disaster. I'm hoping for a nice turn around mid month this season.

[Stevo6899]

44 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lol. It was a good winter outside of the late Feb torch. Deep snow in mid Feb. Perfect snowy christmas season. 

Obviously we have different criteria to what accounts for a good winter. You're okay with settling with northwest flow and garbage clippers like the current pattern, meanwhile I'd rather roll the dice and get the southern stream and gulf open for business. I'll take warm and potentially wet over dry, high ratio 2-4 inchers.

 

Most models have something in the dec 4-6 timeframe. The key will be to have a somewhat strong clipper drop down to push the jet stream further south so the next storm in line can dig south a bit. The gfs does this, while the euro keeps the clippers weaker, making the next big storm most likely a rainer for most of the midwest.

[Hoosier]

12 minutes ago, Baum said:

How much snow did Chicago have last year on January 10, and what was the final season total?  As I recall folks were posting we were going to set all time futility records in mid January and I think that idea got squelched pronto. Don't have the time to look up last year but I'd love to see how the back half played out, and I know December was a disaster. I'm hoping for a nice turn around mid month this season.

Season total was 5.4" on January 10.  Ended up with 48.8", so it was a tremendous rally.

Obviously the odds of a top tier snow season in any given year are pretty low to begin with.  But if you're sitting at a couple inches in mid December or single digits well into January in Chicago... good luck ending up with 70 or 80 inches. 

Still early to be seriously discussing this stuff anyway.  I have hope that December won't be a total disaster.

[Powerball]

5 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Unfortunately, it's a pattern of cold NW flow mostly moisture starved clippers, and the risk is when/if it flips (nothing locks all winter) we end up on the warm side of hard cutters. Tbd ofc, but this gradient is very much like Dec 2017 so far.

If I remember correctly, 2017 was the year that Detroit saw the Christmas snowstorm. 

[RogueWaves]

10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lol. It was a good winter outside of the late Feb torch. Deep snow in mid Feb. Perfect snowy christmas season. 

2017 Best Christmas to NY's since Idk, 2000?? Iirc, KFNT's new all-time snowiest winter at 85.3" beating out 74-75 and 13-14 for top spot. Even in Marshall I had 118% of avg. Yeah, horrible winter..

[RogueWaves]

9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Season total was 5.4" on January 10.  Ended up with 48.8", so it was a tremendous rally.

Obviously the odds of a top tier snow season in any given year are pretty low to begin with.  But if you're sitting at a couple inches in mid December or single digits well into January in Chicago... good luck ending up with 70 or 80 inches. 

Still early to be seriously discussing this stuff anyway.  I have hope that December won't be a total disaster.

Tru dat. Blame it on the NWS tho, it was their graphic I commented on. I hope December comes through for all of us. It'd be nice to continue the theme set by November.

[RogueWaves]

11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

To my earlier point, here's some data.  Obviously the definition/cutoff of an "elite" snowfall winter has some subjectivity, but taking a look at the top 10 snowiest for Chicago, 9 out of 10 had high single digit or double digit snowfall totals by December 15.  The one that didn't was 1966-67, which only had 3.0" by December 15, and it took the #1 snowstorm of all-time in January 1967 to be in the mix to make it a very snowy season.  Total snow in 1966-67 was 5th highest on record.

Wow, never knew that. Here in The Mitt, the jack-o-lanterns had just gone dim when that freakish storm dumped 8-12" Nov2-3 of '66. Went on to be a yuuge winter for SMI.