2021-22 Winter Discussion

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

There is a huge correlation between temp/snowfall in every lake effect region. That is 100% a fact. I agree that it is not as big of a factor as in a non lake effect region, but more cold increases the chances of an above snowfall year.

Id have to look into it more. Maybe it affects areas in the snow belts more, since they have the highest averages. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, michsnowfreak said:

Id have to look into it more. Maybe it affects areas in the snow belts more, since they have the highest averages. 

You don't get lake effect without pretty cold air, you need delta Ts of -13. Lakes Superior, Michigan, Ontario, and most of Huron don't really freeze so unless you get an extremely cold winter they don't have to worry about it. Only Erie is really effected by cold winters, the last 6 winters Erie has not fully frozen as they've all been above average.

[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You don't get lake effect without pretty cold air, you need delta Ts of -13. Lakes Superior, Michigan, Ontario, and most of Huron don't really freeze so unless you get an extremely cold winter they don't have to worry about it. Only Erie is really effected by cold winters, the last 6 winters Erie has not fully frozen as they've all been above average.

Last Winter lake Erie actually peaked at 81% ice coverage which is above average peak. But this was entirely Feb. Seems like even Erie only fully freezes in cold winters.

[BuffaloWeather]

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Last Winter lake Erie actually peaked at 81% ice coverage which is above average peak. But this was entirely Feb. Seems like even Erie only fully freezes in cold winters.

"Lake Erie usually does freeze, about 90 percent of the time," Apffel said. "Last year was an exception." 

https://buffalonews.com/news/local/state-and-regional/when-lake-erie-freezes-over-continued-cold-could-reduce-lake-effect-snow/article_de9a338c-6d44-11eb-b73e-9fafd64107a9.html

[Up_north_MI]

As much as we can count on a warmer then normal winter lately we can also count on February being the one month that seems to delivers most of the winter like weather we do end up getting. 

[Frog Town]

I'm gonna lose my mind with the Winter Forecasts.  Two forecast below almost the "polar" opposite of each other.  What gives??

 

Kentucky Met Forecast:

https://www.wkyt.com/2021/11/18/chief-meteorologist-chris-baileys-winter-weather-forecast/

 

Ohio Met Winter Forecast:

https://myfox28columbus.com/news/news-links/central-ohio-winter-snowfall-forecast-wintercast-2021-2022

[chuckster2012]

Zzzzzzzzzzz...

[michsnowfreak]

17 hours ago, Up_north_MI said:

As much as we can count on a warmer then normal winter lately we can also count on February being the one month that seems to delivers most of the winter like weather we do end up getting. 

The amount of snow we have been getting in February is insane. It's unlike anything I've ever seen in the climate record in terms of varying so dramatically from the average on such a consistent basis. 

[Frog Town]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The amount of snow we have been getting in February is insane. It's unlike anything I've ever seen in the climate record in terms of varying so dramatically from the average on such a consistent basis. 

100 or a 1000 years from now it will be recognized as the shifting of the seasons..LOL.  Everything does start subtle, but it begs the question.  

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, Frog Town said:

100 or a 1000 years from now it will be recognized as the shifting of the seasons..LOL.  Everything does start subtle, but it begs the question.  

Lol. For real though, since 2010, which is 12 years, Detroit has averaged 18.3" of snow in Feb. This is literally double the longterm average of around 9".  Going back a full 20 years we have averaged 16". 

[Stevo6899]

Northwest flow and clipper patterns don't do it for me so I guess now's a good time to be in that now and get it out of the way, and hopefully it doesnt return this winter.  A decent warm up looks to be on the horizon soon. We need one powerhouse low pressure system to track north of us and push the jet stream further south so we can get some low pressure systems to come out of the 4 corners, or the gulf.  I am itching and craving for a snowstorm. It's been what seems like 3 years since we've seen a decent snowstorm here in Detroit. The early november surprise storm in november 2019 is only one that comes to mind. 

[Up_north_MI]

Picked up another inch or so last night, everything is white again but it should melt off in a day or two. My cousin sent me a picture of out his front window at his place up near white fish point and they look to have 4-5 inches on the ground up there right now. We’ve probably had 10-12 inches already this Fall which is above normal for our area, we only average about 85-90 inches a year, areas just 20 miles to our north and west average 120 inches plus.

[michsnowfreak]

34 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Northwest flow and clipper patterns don't do it for me so I guess now's a good time to be in that now and get it out of the way, and hopefully it doesnt return this winter.  A decent warm up looks to be on the horizon soon. We need one powerhouse low pressure system to track north of us and push the jet stream further south so we can get some low pressure systems to come out of the 4 corners, or the gulf.  I am itching and craving for a snowstorm. It's been what seems like 3 years since we've seen a decent snowstorm here in Detroit. The early november surprise storm in november 2019 is only one that comes to mind. 

I would be shocked if there weren't some power house storms in the area in a 2nd year Nina. Based on track you risk anything from snow to ice to rain or a mix of all 3...but chances should be there.

 

Btw...don't forget about Feb 15/16 storm last year. 11" fell, good rates and drifting in the evening. It was definitely the most severe storm we have had in a few years (although Nov 11 2019 was the most anomalous).

 

[Stevo6899]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I would be shocked if there weren't some power house storms in the area in a 2nd year Nina. Based on track you risk anything from snow to ice to rain or a mix of all 3...but chances should be there.

 

Btw...don't forget about Feb 15/16 storm last year. 11" fell, good rates and drifting in the evening. It was definitely the most severe storm we have had in a few years (although Nov 11 2019 was the most anomalous).

 

Ill take that track anyday.  If you want a big snows, you got to smell the rain. That feb storm last year was a fast mover and I think only like 4-5 fell in most areas, high ratio fluffer. Models were hyping it bigger than it ended up being. I think the only event last year that dropped more than 3".

[michsnowfreak]

23 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Ill take that track anyday.  If you want a big snows, you got to smell the rain. That feb storm last year was a fast mover and I think only like 4-5 fell in most areas, high ratio fluffer. Models were hyping it bigger than it ended up being. I think the only event last year that dropped more than 3".

Actually the storm was a good hit for the east side. There was wave 1 which dropped 1-2" in the morning...then the main event evening into the next morning which dropped 6-10" on the east side. DTX did NOT count the morning wave in their storm summary. So the two day totals were widespread double digits on the east side depends how you counted it (some nws offices counted 1 storm, some 2). 

 

The Feb 4th storm was the insane band where the 4-hour 4" snowfall saw the first 3" fall in like 75 minutes. Those were the best synoptic rates I've seen in years. 

 

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/210215winterstorm

[Stevo6899]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Actually the storm was a good hit for the east side. There was wave 1 which dropped 1-2" in the morning...then the main event evening into the next morning which dropped 6-10" on the east side. DTX did NOT count the morning wave in their storm summary. So the two day totals were widespread double digits on the east side depends how you counted it (some nws offices counted 1 storm, some 2). 

 

The Feb 4th storm was the insane band where the 4-hour 4" snowfall saw the first 3" fall in like 75 minutes. Those were the best synoptic rates I've seen in years. 

 

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/210215winterstorm

I wasn't here for the feb 15 storm but i remember it as one storm that only lasted 4-6 hours and most places saw a high ratio 4-5 for the main show.  Snow that happened the previous day shouldn't count towards the main show imo. Im not heading south to florida for the winter until jan 1st so here to hoping for a front loaded winter.

[michsnowfreak]

21 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

I wasn't here for the feb 15 storm but i remember it as one storm that only lasted 4-6 hours and most places saw a high ratio 4-5 for the main show.  Snow that happened the previous day shouldn't count towards the main show imo. Im not heading south to florida for the winter until jan 1st so here to hoping for a front loaded winter.

I honestly can't remember how long it lasted but for me personally it was a great storm because we did have a fresh 9" from the main batch, and when you add in all of the old snow on the ground I was like a kid playing with my snow blower in the deep drifts.

 

Uh oh you're going to Florida again? Guess that means not a lot of snow in December and yet another February buried lol.

[Frog Town]

We officially had 14" at Toledo express airport and that was on top of a solid 6" snow pack.  We officially set our all time depth record from that storm.  Pretty crazy.  Glad my kids got to experience it....All thought I may have been more excited.  

[Hoosier]

December has pretty much been a trainwreck lately.  The last time Chicago had one snowier than average was 2016, and even that one had melting/dwindling snow on Christmas.  

We will get a good one again... eventually, lol

[Baum]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

December has pretty much been a trainwreck lately.  The last time Chicago had one snowier than average was 2016, and even that one had melting/dwindling snow on Christmas.  

We will get a good one again... eventually, lol

The Great Winter Solstice Blizzard of '21 is on the table for Chicagoland.

[Stevo6899]

4 hours ago, Frog Town said:

We officially had 14" at Toledo express airport and that was on top of a solid 6" snow pack.  We officially set our all time depth record from that storm.  Pretty crazy.  Glad my kids got to experience it....All thought I may have been more excited.  

Toledo had 14 on the ground after last yrs mid feb quick hitter?

[Frog Town]

4 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Toledo had 14 on the ground after last yrs mid feb quick hitter?

Are you referring to the storm on the 15th-sh?  That was not a quick hitter for NW Ohio.  Toledo express measured 14.1" from that storm alone.  I intentionally measured the depth just prior as I have never seen that snow depth in my 45 years in T-Town.  

[Stevo6899]

4 hours ago, Frog Town said:

Are you referring to the storm on the 15th-sh?  That was not a quick hitter for NW Ohio.  Toledo express measured 14.1" from that storm alone.  I intentionally measured the depth just prior as I have never seen that snow depth in my 45 years in T-Town.  

Yea that storm. Wow i thought the dry slot snuck into toledo too. Good to see toledo jackpotted for once.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Toledo had 14 on the ground after last yrs mid feb quick hitter?

I just checked the observations, wasn't that quick of hitter. Wonder if you're thinking Feb 4th? That was a classic quick hitter...dropped 3-5" in 4 hours area wide.

 

Feb 15th....after morning snow dropped 1-2" there was a lull all afternoon...then snow began at 5pm, ending at 9am the 16th. Heaviest snow rates in the 10pm-3am window. New snowfall was 8-9" for Detroit and its eastern burbs, on top of the 1-2" from the earlier morning. Snow depth after the storm was 14" at Detroit and 18" at Toledo.

[Frog Town]

14 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea that storm. Wow i thought the dry slot snuck into toledo too. Good to see toledo jackpotted for once.

It's funny you mention that because I was banking on us getting dry slotted as we typically do.  I was shocked to see us get that high as well.  The sweet spot was actually progged 45 miles to our SE but ended up over us, shockingly.  

[Stevo6899]

5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I just checked the observations, wasn't that quick of hitter. Wonder if you're thinking Feb 4th? That was a classic quick hitter...dropped 3-5" in 4 hours area wide.

 

Feb 15th....after morning snow dropped 1-2" there was a lull all afternoon...then snow began at 5pm, ending at 9am the 16th. Heaviest snow rates in the 10pm-3am window. New snowfall was 8-9" for Detroit and its eastern burbs, on top of the 1-2" from the earlier morning. Snow depth after the storm was 14" at Detroit and 18" at Toledo.

 I'm remembering the mid February storm, temps were pretty cold, like in the upper teens? The ratios def saved it from being a total dud  Not one model had the dry slot getting this far north, but somehow Detroit always finds a way to get into it. Either way it's been a pretty dull Winter the past 3 years so hopefully we can get things going in here soon.  It's a bummer because we've had some decent colder around here lately but no storms. Hopefully yall don't mind us cluttering up this thread a bit.  Not a whole lot going on really anywhere snowwise.

[Malacka11]

Honestly please keep posting as much as you can, it helps me get through the boring times and reminds me that I'm not the only goofball wasting away over little water crystals fluttering down from above. 

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

 I'm remembering the mid February storm, temps were pretty cold, like in the upper teens? The ratios def saved it from being a total dud  Not one model had the dry slot getting this far north, but somehow Detroit always finds a way to get into it. Either way it's been a pretty dull Winter the past 3 years so hopefully we can get things going in here soon.  It's a bummer because we've had some decent colder around here lately but no storms. Hopefully yall don't mind us cluttering up this thread a bit.  Not a whole lot going on really anywhere snowwise.

Yes temps were very cold. February is our "can't go wrong" month anymore.  Last Winter was on its way to being extremely meh, outside of a perfect Christmas snowfall, then as usual February came along and bam. Deep snow and deep cold. How long will you be in Florida?

[buckeye]

If it's not going to snow then I'll gladly take this as option 2

[NoDoppler4TnySandz]

45 minutes ago, buckeye said:

If it's not going to snow then I'll gladly take this as option 2

As long as it's dry, DEFINITELY AGREE Buckeye.....load that up at the beginning of the month and swing hard winter the last ten days, even better.