2021-22 Winter Discussion

[A-L-E-K]

updated winter 2021/21 map brought to you by mchenrysnow

[Cary67]

6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

updated winter 2021/21 map brought to you by mchenrysnow

Drought feedback

[Malacka11]

Please, nobody shit down my trachea for mentioning something so far out, but there's some funny stuff happening on a lot of the models ~180 hours out. Just sayin'.

[Jonger]

On 10/25/2021 at 7:02 AM, A-L-E-K said:

fantasy snows starting to pop up on models every now and then, winter regulars should be filtering back to the board soon

What's up?

[Hoosier]

10 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Please, nobody shit down my trachea for mentioning something so far out, but there's some funny stuff happening on a lot of the models ~180 hours out. Just sayin'.

It looks like there's going to be a reservoir of cool/cold air around, so it's really going to come down to the details on system evolution as to whether something can come from it.  

There have been a number of out of season snows in the past several years (both early and late).  Certainly would be foolish to discount the possibility.

[Stebo]

14 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Please, nobody shit down my trachea for mentioning something so far out, but there's some funny stuff happening on a lot of the models ~180 hours out. Just sayin'.

My guess is that the cold air presses in too much and the system gets sheared out under the confluence of the upper low, if it doesn't press enough enough then its rain anyways.

[chuckster2012]

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

It looks like there's going to be a reservoir of cool/cold air around, so it's really going to come down to the details on system evolution as to whether something can come from it.  

There have been a number of out of season snows in the past several years (both early and late).  Certainly would be foolish to discount the possibility.

18zGfs says, what snow?

[RogueWaves]

Not a fan of fast-forwarding from Augtober to flakes. Whatever happened to Autumn??

[IWXwx]

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

Not a fan of fast-forwarding from Augtober to flakes. Whatever happened to Autumn??

The same thing that happened to spring-two weeks worth in May

 

[Chicago Storm]

Please, nobody shit down my trachea for mentioning something so far out, but there's some funny stuff happening on a lot of the models ~180 hours out. Just sayin'.

I’ve seen enough to suggest that at least part of the region will see their first flakes the first half of Nov with this upcoming cold shot. Maybe more than flakes for some areas? Shall see.

Should also see the first widespread freeze (even hard freeze) for many areas as well. EPO is going negative and will be driving things for a bit.


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[A-L-E-K]

euro looks cold in the mid range for sure

[Chicago Storm]

euro looks cold in the mid range for sure

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[beavis1729]

There it is…lucky #13 ☘️

[RogueWaves]

I'm calling lake shadow on that!

[Baum]

I see LOT now has a forecaster named, "DOOM".....that should play well during the upcoming cold season ..... 

[A-L-E-K]

holy shit, that's sick

LOT just keeps getting stronger

[Hoosier]

10 hours ago, Baum said:

I see LOT now has a forecaster named, "DOOM".....that should play well during the upcoming cold season ..... 

That's awesome.

[cyclone77]

All they need is to hire a Gloom and they'll have the perfect pair.

[Malacka11]

Glad we're able to get all of the useless fantasy weenie stuff out of the way early on, so we can keep things legit once winter really hits

[hlcater]

What a beautiful image 

[Malacka11]

I love how this storm just shits on the metro. My house would be one county away from 9-inch totals. 

[cyclone77]

Hopefully being at ground zero for a 2 foot blizzard 10 days out before Halloween is a good sign for the upcoming winter lol.

[RogueWaves]

On 10/29/2021 at 1:14 AM, cyclone77 said:

Hopefully being at ground zero for a 2 foot blizzard 10 days out before Halloween is a good sign for the upcoming winter lol.

From past experience. No

[RogueWaves]

On 10/29/2021 at 1:06 AM, Malacka11 said:

I love how this storm just shits on the metro. My house would be one county away from 9-inch totals. 

Now that's a legit lake shadow!

[snowman33]

Hopefully another snowy winter is in the cards.

[CheeselandSkies]

On 10/29/2021 at 12:04 AM, hlcater said:

What a beautiful image 

Please God no, that's the day I'll be trying to fly out for my honeymoon.

Edit: Madison forecast from NWS is sunny and 59 for Monday...shows how much credit they give the GFS at this range.

[Up_north_MI]

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-maps 

Using this noaa site and looking back at the last 20 December-February time periods it’s been warmer then normal 14 out of the last 20 for the state of Michigan. There was 3 below normal and 3 average periods in there also. Again this is only for my state but to think the past 20 years the Meteorological winter months of Dec-Feb have been warmer then normal 70% of the time makes me feel like a Lions fan thinking there going to have a good season only to be disappointed year after year is like a winter fan in MI thinking it’s going to be cold this winter. The Lions have won a single playoff game in the past 50 some years, was that our 2013/2014 winter?

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, Up_north_MI said:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-maps 

Using this noaa site and looking back at the last 20 December-February time periods it’s been warmer then normal 14 out of the last 20 for the state of Michigan. There was 3 below normal and 3 average periods in there also. Again this is only for my state but to think the past 20 years the Meteorological winter months of Dec-Feb have been warmer then normal 70% of the time makes me feel like a Lions fan thinking there going to have a good season only to be disappointed year after year is like a winter fan in MI thinking it’s going to be cold this winter. The Lions have won a single playoff game in the past 50 some years, was that our 2013/2014 winter?

Great link! I did some research with New York

Went back to look at the last 20 years from Dec-February in terms of temperature. You can see our snowfall is directly dependent on temperature (Makes sense). Out of the last 21 years we have had 4 below normal winters, 4 normal winters, and 13 above normal. We've had 6 straight above normal temp winters here in Upstate New York...

 

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[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Up_north_MI said:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-maps 

Using this noaa site and looking back at the last 20 December-February time periods it’s been warmer then normal 14 out of the last 20 for the state of Michigan. There was 3 below normal and 3 average periods in there also. Again this is only for my state but to think the past 20 years the Meteorological winter months of Dec-Feb have been warmer then normal 70% of the time makes me feel like a Lions fan thinking there going to have a good season only to be disappointed year after year is like a winter fan in MI thinking it’s going to be cold this winter. The Lions have won a single playoff game in the past 50 some years, was that our 2013/2014 winter?

The thing is Michigan is a cold state so Temp departures and snow don't go hand in hand as they would in, say, the mid Atlantic. Northern Michigan can have a banner snow year with way above avg Temps. Likewise a bitter cold winter can freeze the lakes early and shut off the lake effect machine prematurely leaving to well below normal snow.  I've studied a ton of climatology for Detroit and even in the "warmest" and" least snowy" part of the state, there is no direct correlation with temperatures and snowfall. Once you get to the North country, it's an absolute crap shoot. And what I mean by correlation, is that everything is basically dependent on weather patterns and storm tracks. 

[BuffaloWeather]

37 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The thing is Michigan is a cold state so Temp departures and snow don't go hand in hand as they would in, say, the mid Atlantic. Northern Michigan can have a banner snow year with way above avg Temps. Likewise a bitter cold winter can freeze the lakes early and shut off the lake effect machine prematurely leaving to well below normal snow.  I've studied a ton of climatology for Detroit and even in the "warmest" and" least snowy" part of the state, there is no direct correlation with temperatures and snowfall. Once you get to the North country, it's an absolute crap shoot. And what I mean by correlation, is that everything is basically dependent on weather patterns and storm tracks. 

There is a huge correlation between temp/snowfall in every lake effect region. That is 100% a fact. I agree that it is not as big of a factor as in a non lake effect region, but more cold increases the chances of an above snowfall year.