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2021-22 Winter Discussion


Hoosier
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10 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Please, nobody shit down my trachea for mentioning something so far out, but there's some funny stuff happening on a lot of the models ~180 hours out. Just sayin'.

It looks like there's going to be a reservoir of cool/cold air around, so it's really going to come down to the details on system evolution as to whether something can come from it.  

There have been a number of out of season snows in the past several years (both early and late).  Certainly would be foolish to discount the possibility.

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14 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Please, nobody shit down my trachea for mentioning something so far out, but there's some funny stuff happening on a lot of the models ~180 hours out. Just sayin'.

My guess is that the cold air presses in too much and the system gets sheared out under the confluence of the upper low, if it doesn't press enough enough then its rain anyways.

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6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

It looks like there's going to be a reservoir of cool/cold air around, so it's really going to come down to the details on system evolution as to whether something can come from it.  

There have been a number of out of season snows in the past several years (both early and late).  Certainly would be foolish to discount the possibility.

18zGfs says, what snow?

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Please, nobody shit down my trachea for mentioning something so far out, but there's some funny stuff happening on a lot of the models ~180 hours out. Just sayin'.

I’ve seen enough to suggest that at least part of the region will see their first flakes the first half of Nov with this upcoming cold shot. Maybe more than flakes for some areas? Shall see.

Should also see the first widespread freeze (even hard freeze) for many areas as well. EPO is going negative and will be driving things for a bit.


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  • 3 weeks later...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-maps 

Using this noaa site and looking back at the last 20 December-February time periods it’s been warmer then normal 14 out of the last 20 for the state of Michigan. There was 3 below normal and 3 average periods in there also. Again this is only for my state but to think the past 20 years the Meteorological winter months of Dec-Feb have been warmer then normal 70% of the time makes me feel like a Lions fan thinking there going to have a good season only to be disappointed year after year is like a winter fan in MI thinking it’s going to be cold this winter. The Lions have won a single playoff game in the past 50 some years, was that our 2013/2014 winter?

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1 hour ago, Up_north_MI said:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-maps 

Using this noaa site and looking back at the last 20 December-February time periods it’s been warmer then normal 14 out of the last 20 for the state of Michigan. There was 3 below normal and 3 average periods in there also. Again this is only for my state but to think the past 20 years the Meteorological winter months of Dec-Feb have been warmer then normal 70% of the time makes me feel like a Lions fan thinking there going to have a good season only to be disappointed year after year is like a winter fan in MI thinking it’s going to be cold this winter. The Lions have won a single playoff game in the past 50 some years, was that our 2013/2014 winter?

Great link! I did some research with New York

Went back to look at the last 20 years from Dec-February in terms of temperature. You can see our snowfall is directly dependent on temperature (Makes sense). Out of the last 21 years we have had 4 below normal winters, 4 normal winters, and 13 above normal. We've had 6 straight above normal temp winters here in Upstate New York...

December 2000 - February 2001 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2001 - February 2002 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2002 - February 2003 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2003 - February 2004 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2004 - February 2005 Statewide Average Temperature Ranks

December 2005 - February 2006 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2006 - February 2007 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2007 - February 2008 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2008 - February 2009 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2009 - February 2010 Statewide Average Temperature Ranks

December 2010 - February 2011 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2011 - February 2012 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2012 - February 2013 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2013 - February 2014 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2014 - February 2015 Statewide Average Temperature Ranks

December 2015 - February 2016 Statewide Minimum Temperature RanksDecember 2016 - February 2017 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2017 - February 2018 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2018 - February 2019 Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2019 - February 2020 Statewide Average Temperature Ranks

December 2020 - February 2021 Statewide Average Temperature Ranks

 
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2 hours ago, Up_north_MI said:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-maps 

Using this noaa site and looking back at the last 20 December-February time periods it’s been warmer then normal 14 out of the last 20 for the state of Michigan. There was 3 below normal and 3 average periods in there also. Again this is only for my state but to think the past 20 years the Meteorological winter months of Dec-Feb have been warmer then normal 70% of the time makes me feel like a Lions fan thinking there going to have a good season only to be disappointed year after year is like a winter fan in MI thinking it’s going to be cold this winter. The Lions have won a single playoff game in the past 50 some years, was that our 2013/2014 winter?

The thing is Michigan is a cold state so Temp departures and snow don't go hand in hand as they would in, say, the mid Atlantic. Northern Michigan can have a banner snow year with way above avg Temps. Likewise a bitter cold winter can freeze the lakes early and shut off the lake effect machine prematurely leaving to well below normal snow.  I've studied a ton of climatology for Detroit and even in the "warmest" and" least snowy" part of the state, there is no direct correlation with temperatures and snowfall. Once you get to the North country, it's an absolute crap shoot. And what I mean by correlation, is that everything is basically dependent on weather patterns and storm tracks. 

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37 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The thing is Michigan is a cold state so Temp departures and snow don't go hand in hand as they would in, say, the mid Atlantic. Northern Michigan can have a banner snow year with way above avg Temps. Likewise a bitter cold winter can freeze the lakes early and shut off the lake effect machine prematurely leaving to well below normal snow.  I've studied a ton of climatology for Detroit and even in the "warmest" and" least snowy" part of the state, there is no direct correlation with temperatures and snowfall. Once you get to the North country, it's an absolute crap shoot. And what I mean by correlation, is that everything is basically dependent on weather patterns and storm tracks. 

There is a huge correlation between temp/snowfall in every lake effect region. That is 100% a fact. I agree that it is not as big of a factor as in a non lake effect region, but more cold increases the chances of an above snowfall year.

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