WestMichigan Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 07-08 was a good one over here. Consistent snows December - February with a normal amount in March. It was the 3rd snowiest winter on record at GRR. I get the feeling that is setting the bar pretty high, but something above average is certainly a possibility. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Honestly I think too many are latching onto the 2nd Nina year as being the main driver of the pattern when we really haven't had many to begin with and the 2 moderate 2nd year Nina we have had were polar opposite, meaning there isn't much value there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 17 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: When he doesn't let politics get in the way he has a wealth of knowledge that very few meteorologist have. I agree though. Climate change is very real Bastardi is an idiot, straight up. There is no "wealth of knowledge" over there, I can assure you of that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 19, 2021 Author Share Posted October 19, 2021 JB was tolerable like 20 years ago... before social media and he didn't really get into CC discussion back then. And his columns were free. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 WAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: WAD Wicked ass dendrites? 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 2 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Wicked ass dendrites? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Would really love snow for the holidays. It's been a while 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 On 10/18/2021 at 9:01 PM, StormfanaticInd said: Joe Bastardi is one of our greatest minds even though he can be a bit biased I think you forgot to add your sarcasm tag there... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Would really love snow for the holidays. It's been a while We had a nice one last year, about 3 inches Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. Snow showers all day as well. Pretty nice. That pretty much guarantees us here in central Ohio see no snow for Christmas over the next 20 or so years! LOL 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 On 10/19/2021 at 3:01 PM, Stebo said: Honestly I think too many are latching onto the 2nd Nina year as being the main driver of the pattern when we really haven't had many to begin with and the 2 moderate 2nd year Nina we have had were polar opposite, meaning there isn't much value there. Just when you think you've got ENSO figured out, climate change comes along and throws a wrench into the cogs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 13 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Just when you think you've got ENSO figured out, climate change comes along and throws a wrench into the cogs. There are way too many ripples in the system to put any faith in analogs. It could be a +5 winter or -5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 3 hours ago, IWXwx said: Just when you think you've got ENSO figured out, climate change comes along and throws a wrench into the cogs. Also true, it could literally be anything. Look at last February, who saw crippling cold that deep into the south. If someone says they did, I want the mega million numbers too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 On 10/19/2021 at 3:01 PM, Stebo said: Honestly I think too many are latching onto the 2nd Nina year as being the main driver of the pattern when we really haven't had many to begin with and the 2 moderate 2nd year Nina we have had were polar opposite, meaning there isn't much value there. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 7 hours ago, Jonger said: There are way too many ripples in the system to put any faith in analogs. It could be a +5 winter or -5. It's true. Nothing plays by the rules any more. 2007-08 analog gives a warm fuzzy, but who really knows. 2017-18 also had a hot October and turned into a pretty good winter for some. It certainly featured one of the colder and snowier holiday weeks in many moons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 16 hours ago, Powerball said: I think you forgot to add your sarcasm tag there... Bastardi blocked me on Twitter a few years ago after I called him out on a blown forecast.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 I got blocked for calling him the r-word and for telling him that my friend Jonger could squish him with his blubber. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 On 10/19/2021 at 2:32 PM, A-L-E-K said: WAD fuck 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: fuck Wetter than normal is perfectly fine in winter, you have to sniff rain to get the big dogs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Wetter than normal is perfectly fine in winter, you have to sniff rain to get the big dogs. it's obv good if u want snow, it's bad if you called for warm and dry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: fuck Other than western Colorado, the Dakotas and Minnesota, CPC used that Nina map for their winter season precip prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 ...oh, and here's their temp prediction, as if anyone would be surprised. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 it's obv good if u want snow, it's bad if you called for warm and dryWAW was/is the correct call.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 I prefer wet n' wild 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 20 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: it's obv good if u want snow, it's bad if you called for warm and dry How often do we even get warm and dry in the winter? I'd say that probably the least likely scenario in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 2 hours ago, Stebo said: How often do we even get warm and dry in the winter? I'd say that probably the least likely scenario in the winter. 2001/2002 is the WAD winter here but year WAW seems like the right call would be nice to break the regional drought and keep the lakes full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 After I posted those CPC forecast maps yesterday, I thought they looked familiar. On the left is this year's predictions and last year's is on the right. Cut and paste? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2021 Author Share Posted October 22, 2021 30 minutes ago, IWXwx said: After I posted those CPC forecast maps yesterday, I thought they looked familiar. On the left is this year's predictions and last year's is on the right. Cut and paste? ENSO factors in very heavily to their outlooks. I also heard directly from Dr. Uccellini at one of the conferences that long term warming factors into the outlooks, which is why you typically won't see a ton of blues on the seasonal outlooks. This is even more true once you get out to the 6-12 month outlooks. You'll basically never see any blue anywhere on those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 6 hours ago, Stebo said: How often do we even get warm and dry in the winter? I'd say that probably the least likely scenario in the winter. 3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: 2001/2002 is the WAD winter here but year WAW seems like the right call would be nice to break the regional drought and keep the lakes full Put these lists below together based off of +/-3F from average temps and +/-2" from average precip for DJF. Significantly warm/dry winters are very rare... Where as significantly warm/wet, cold/dry and cold/wet are a bit more common. Warm/Dry Winters 2001-2: 32.5F & 3.15" (Neutral) 1930-31: 32.4F & 1.60" Warm/Wet Winters 1982-83: 30.9F & 11.48" (Strong El Nino) 1959-60: 29.9.F & 8.89" 1907-08: 29.4F & 8.50" 1879-80: 35.2F & 8.91" 1875-76: 33.6F & 9.47" 1873-74: 30.2F & 9.42" Cold/Dry Winters 2014-15: 23.0F & 3.65" (Moderate El Nino) 1976-77: 19.0F & 2.30" (Moderate El Nino) 1962-63: 19.2F & 1.85" (Neutral) 1944-45: 23.3F & 3.08: 1919-20: 22.0F & 1.94" 1898-99: 21.7F & 3.29" 1874-75: 21.2F & 3.58" 1872-73: 20.5F & 3.25" Cold/Wet Winters 2008-09: 22.4F & 10.32" (Moderate La Nina)*2nd Year 1984-85: 21.9F & 7.86" (Moderate La Nina)*2nd Year 1917-18: 21.0F & 7.81" 1886-87: 22.5F & 9.99" 1884-85: 22.2F & 9.40" 1882-83: 21.9F & 8.47" 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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