stadiumwave Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 On 10/4/2021 at 1:54 PM, StormfanaticInd said: PDO region has really cooled over the past several weeks. **Could** prove to be a negative for this winter. I would not focus too much on NPAC SST's in early OCT. Rosby Wave trains in OCT/NOV often lead to great fluctuations in NPAC sst anomalies. Example...OCT 7, 2013: BTW, very close match to now. So is 2010. So is 2011. All of those years have wildly different winter outcomes. Here is NPAC SST by DEC 30, 2013: Point is early OCT NPAC SST's probably give no clue to winter. If NPAC looks like that mid-DEC then different story. It could go any number of ways right now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 50 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: I would not focus too much on NPAC SST's in early OCT. Rosby Wave trains in OCT/NOV often lead to great fluctuations in NPAC sst anomalies. Example...OCT 7, 2013: BTW, very close match to now. So is 2010. So is 2011. All of those years have wildly different winter outcomes. Here is NPAC SST by DEC 30, 2013: Point is early OCT NPAC SST's probably give no clue to winter. If NPAC looks like that mid-DEC then different story. It could go any number of ways right now. Very good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Winter may very well start early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: Winter may very well start early 561 height line going thru Chicago, seems like NW flow and upper 50s, not early winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 561 height line going thru Chicago, seems like NW flow and upper 50s, not early winterblue on the map over the lakes, cold and snow on the way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 22 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: blue on the map over the lakes, cold and snow on the way. . I never said that. Are you always so critical. Jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 This look in the winter would be interesting is what I am saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 15, 2021 Author Share Posted October 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: This look in the winter would be interesting is what I am saying I'm not so sure about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'm not so sure about that. Of course. I'm out. You can go ahead and ban me. Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 10 hours ago, Hoosier said: I'm not so sure about that. Yeah that's the cool thing about the weather, nobody is. If you're going to poo poo his idea at least explain why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 24 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: Yeah that's the cool thing about the weather, nobody is. If you're going to poo poo his idea at least explain why. 12 hours ago, madwx said: 561 height line going thru Chicago, seems like NW flow and upper 50s, not early winter substitute upper 50s with upper 30s and that's what this pattern would be in winter, dry NW flow and not all that cold due to the ridge being pumped up over the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Of course. I'm out. You can go ahead and ban me. Lolyou will be missed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 33 minutes ago, madwx said: substitute upper 50s with upper 30s and that's what this pattern would be in winter, dry NW flow and not all that cold due to the ridge being pumped up over the plains. Yeah upper low swinging down to our east, at best it would be lake effect, but otherwise just crap. I will pass on that look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 42 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah upper low swinging down to our east, at best it would be lake effect, but otherwise just crap. I will pass on that look. What's a favorable look for clippers for the Lakes versus the depiction we are talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: What's a favorable look for clippers for the Lakes versus the depiction we are talking about? Ninas usually feature clipper patterns. We haven't had one in many years. I think the last good clipper pattern was 2013-2014. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 I'd take a clipper pattern any day over what we have had the last two winters. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 17 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: What's a favorable look for clippers for the Lakes versus the depiction we are talking about? You want the a broader trough that encompasses more of the midwest and less amplitude in the upstream ridge. I mean this is all a bit too much analysis of one map since patterns are composed of many days to multiple weeks and not just a snapshot of one day. We need to look at how the entire flow of the NH is evolving. And wavelengths will be longer by Dec/Jan anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, madwx said: You want the a broader trough that encompasses more of the midwest and less amplitude in the upstream ridge. I mean this is all a bit too much analysis of one map since patterns are composed of many days to multiple weeks and not just a snapshot of one day. We need to look at how the entire flow of the NH is evolving. And wavelengths will be longer by Dec/Jan anyway. Exactly, its highest dependent on the Pacific. Negative Epo usually brings it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 forwarding info from the worst possible options around. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 58 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: forwarding info from the worst possible options around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Joe Bastardi predicting a cold winter. Must be October again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 Joe Bastardi is one of our greatest minds even though he can be a bit biased 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Joe Bastardi is one of our greatest minds even though he can be a bit biased No, no, and hell no. He's so bad. I don't get why he's so popular among weenies on this forum. Every winter it's like Bastardi said this or Bastardi predicited that. Like who cares? He's never been that good at forecasting to begin with. Plus there's the whole climate change denier thing which just makes him 1000x worse. Like how can you be a weather forecaster and not believe in climate change at this point? I just don't get it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 When he doesn't let politics get in the way he has a wealth of knowledge that very few meteorologist have. I agree though. Climate change is very real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 12 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: When he doesn't let politics get in the way he has a wealth of knowledge that very few meteorologist have. I agree though. Climate change is very real He's popular with some because he tells them what they "want" to hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 12 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: When he doesn't let politics get in the way he has a wealth of knowledge that very few meteorologist have. I agree though. Climate change is very real He says cold in the east every year and collects money from stupid people that believe it. He is a snake oil salesman. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 2011-12.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 2011-12. . Nah I don't see it, the only thing that really matches that is 2nd year nina. Everything else around it are more of a 07-08 look including the warmth this month, the enso state and the -PDO levels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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