StormfanaticInd Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 19 hours ago, Hoosier said: Having to contend with a se ridge wouldn't be a strange concept particularly in a Nina. No doubt. Just depends on how strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 Recurve typhoon suggest a trough and possibly some much cooler weather on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 On 9/28/2021 at 8:32 PM, RogueWaves said: Yep. Entire first half of Oct 2013 was endless summer...then the flip Historically, many warm octobers were followed by cold winters and cold octobers were followed by mild winters. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 I have nothing to back this up other than my knowledge of climate, but I have a feeling it is going to be a stormy Winter locally. La Nina is historically a conga line of storms into this region. Last Winter I was envisioning a ton of precipitation, both rain and snow, but yet each Winter month ended up drier than normal. Even February with it's heavy snowfall & deep snow pack saw liquid precipitation slightly below average (owing to both the fact that most of the snow was powdery and also the fact that there was no rain). In the end season snowfall was right around average to slightly above in spots, yet it was a drier than average Winter (which contradicted literally every model forecast). Overall there has been a slight increase in precipitation the past few decades, I don't know if we've ever had 2 dry La Nina's in a around, and a wetter pattern has taken hold starting the 2nd half of summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 Recurve typhoon suggest a trough and possibly some much cooler weather on the wayThat’s not always how it works... And it won’t be in this case re: cooler weather.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted September 30, 2021 Share Posted September 30, 2021 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: That’s not always how it works... And it won’t be in this case re: cooler weather. . Of course. Weather is a very complicated beast with many moving parts. Any of which can take over. Let's revisit this in 6 to 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 4 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Recurve typhoon suggest a trough and possibly some much cooler weather on the way Happened a lot in the fall of 2013. Just sayin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 I'm just glad we already got the energy going now, as long as we got a few weenies assembled it'll be a rocking good time 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 things always pick up when snow is on the table again some of us do our best to pick up the slack in the offseason but September can be rough hoping to avoid a repeat of our recent snowy halloweens 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 On 10/1/2021 at 6:20 AM, A-L-E-K said: things always pick up when snow is on the table again some of us do our best to pick up the slack in the offseason but September can be rough hoping to avoid a repeat of our recent snowy halloweens Definitely cold, snowy Octobers and early Novembers haven't bode well for the winter overall here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 2 hours ago, Cary67 said: Definitely cold, snowy Octobers and early Novembers haven't bode well for the winter overall here. When it comes at the end of November....that's a different story. Some of my favorite winters had that twist. Late 70's Mid 80's 2005, 2013, 2014 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 In Southern Hemisphere news, super strong PV this winter (that is of course transitioning toward summer now): The average temperature at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station between April and September was minus-78 degrees, coldest on record (records since 1957). 4.5 degrees lower than current 30-year average sea ice levels surrounding Antarctica hit 5th highest level on record in August Vostok Station hit -110.9 on Thursday (9/30) Southern annual mode has no meaningful connection to northern hemisphere that I know of, so no real substance here other than the bottom of the planet just had a super spicy winter. Kind of hope that isn't a foreshadowing of northern hemisphere winter as an ultra strong PV locked up tight at the pole while we have occasional cold rain and mild zonal flow all winter would suck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 2 hours ago, luckyweather said: In Southern Hemisphere news, super strong PV this winter (that is of course transitioning toward summer now): The average temperature at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station between April and September was minus-78 degrees, coldest on record (records since 1957). 4.5 degrees lower than current 30-year average sea ice levels surrounding Antarctica hit 5th highest level on record in August Vostok Station hit -110.9 on Thursday (9/30) Southern annual mode has no meaningful connection to northern hemisphere that I know of, so no real substance here other than the bottom of the planet just had a super spicy winter. Kind of hope that isn't a foreshadowing of northern hemisphere winter as an ultra strong PV locked up tight at the pole while we have occasional cold rain and mild zonal flow all winter would suck. Interesting... I thought there was some correlation to the Southern Hemi Winter and the Northern. Maybe it was what south america experienced could be foretelling. Curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 I see this thread is off to an excellent start 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 PDO region has really cooled over the past several weeks. **Could** prove to be a negative for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 I like a winter with a fair amount of blocking (I think it'll average -AO overall) but also a somewhat -PNA. It's a La Nina so it'll be polar stream dominant and that'd be a chilly, active look for the sub-forum if correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 I just want one storm where Alek doesn't have to come in and drop the "antecedent airmass is trash anyway" bomb 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 Under 32 at onset or bust 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 On 10/4/2021 at 2:54 PM, StormfanaticInd said: PDO region has really cooled over the past several weeks. **Could** prove to be a negative for this winter. I've been banking on that signal for the past few years and it hasn't delivered at all. Was huge during the 13-14 winter but that was it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Mark your calendars fellow weenies....October 7th....first digital snow of the season for the forum......not a chance in hell of happening.... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 17 hours ago, Frog Town said: I've been banking on that signal for the past few years and it hasn't delivered at all. Was huge during the 13-14 winter but that was it. I think it will be huge this winter. The wildcard of course is the nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 Starting to see some hints the east coast ridge could finally break down late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted October 10, 2021 Share Posted October 10, 2021 ids habbening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 5 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Tweeted with Judah and he mentioned the Euro Model was on to this as well. I'd feel better if it was the last half of November though. Foundation setting stuff for a solid first half of Winter. Then let it warm up as far as I'm concerned. One thing I love about this guy is how he responds to almost all inquiries. Pretty stand up guy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 On 10/4/2021 at 1:54 PM, StormfanaticInd said: PDO region has really cooled over the past several weeks. **Could** prove to be a negative for this winter. I would not focus too much on NPAC SST's in early OCT. Rosby Wave trains in OCT/NOV often lead to great fluctuations in NPAC sst anomalies. Example...OCT 7, 2013: BTW, very close match to now. So is 2010. So is 2011. All of those years have wildly different winter outcomes. Here is NPAC SST by DEC 30, 2013: Point is early OCT NPAC SST's probably give no clue to winter. If NPAC looks like that mid-DEC then different story. It could go any number of ways right now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 50 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: I would not focus too much on NPAC SST's in early OCT. Rosby Wave trains in OCT/NOV often lead to great fluctuations in NPAC sst anomalies. Example...OCT 7, 2013: BTW, very close match to now. So is 2010. So is 2011. All of those years have wildly different winter outcomes. Here is NPAC SST by DEC 30, 2013: Point is early OCT NPAC SST's probably give no clue to winter. If NPAC looks like that mid-DEC then different story. It could go any number of ways right now. Very good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 Winter may very well start early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: Winter may very well start early 561 height line going thru Chicago, seems like NW flow and upper 50s, not early winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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