Hoosier Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 Who is ready? Personally, not at all ready for winter weather, but ready to start discussing. It looks like we will have a La Nina once again, which would make this the 2nd consecutive winter with one. Post your outlooks and thoughts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 WAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 CAW all the way Cold and wet, in case there was confusion. Wet as in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 13, 2021 Author Share Posted September 13, 2021 IDK what you're saying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted September 14, 2021 Share Posted September 14, 2021 2nd year Nina climo would favor colder and wetter than last year but last year didn't really follow 1st year Nina climo rules. Initial model trends do lean toward a weaker than average Stratospheric Polar vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted September 14, 2021 Share Posted September 14, 2021 1 minute ago, madwx said: 2nd year Nina climo would favor colder and wetter than last year but last year didn't really follow 1st year Nina climo rules. Initial model trends do lean toward a weaker than average Stratospheric Polar vortex. If you don't mind me asking, what does the second part mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted September 14, 2021 Share Posted September 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: If you don't mind me asking, what does the second part mean? Weaker stratospheric polar vortex means that there is a greater chance at polar intrusions into the mid latitudes since the polar night jet won't be as strong. There will be more of a negative Arctic Oscillation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomp2mp Posted September 14, 2021 Share Posted September 14, 2021 29 minutes ago, madwx said: Weaker stratospheric polar vortex means that there is a greater chance at polar intrusions into the mid latitudes since the polar night jet won't be as strong. There will be more of a negative Arctic Oscillation. guess we'll just have to get used to this as the Arctic sea ice goes bye bye and Greenland gets greener by the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted September 14, 2021 Share Posted September 14, 2021 If precip trends since March continue it will be dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 14, 2021 Share Posted September 14, 2021 2 below average winters in a row here, historically it is rare to go 3 in a row, so going above normal snowfall for our area. 3 below average snowfall years hasn't happened since the 1980s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 14, 2021 Author Share Posted September 14, 2021 There have been some clunker 2nd year Ninas. Hopefully this isn't one of them. Some have turned out ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted September 14, 2021 Share Posted September 14, 2021 Looking ahead with my modelling method is very suggestive of more frequent arctic air intrusions throughout the winter than last year. I'm expecting a more normal type winter across the northern areas for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 14, 2021 Share Posted September 14, 2021 Been spoiled locally the past few seasons. While I'd love for that to continue, we're due for a dud. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 3 hours ago, hlcater said: Been spoiled locally the past few seasons. While I'd love for that to continue, we're due for a dud. It's been the opposite here. A couple of barely normal, a couple duds. The odds are working in our favor in northeast IN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 8 hours ago, IWXwx said: It's been the opposite here. A couple of barely normal, a couple duds. The odds are working in our favor in northeast IN. Similar weather up here. More or less normal to below normal has been the theme. LES especially has been missing the last couple of winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 I know ride persistence in a forecast but I feel the poor trend has to break in our cold and snowy favor sooner than later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Noticing blocking tendencies on the gefs already. Interesting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Early yet though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 January will be rockin' 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 System this week is giving me winter vibes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 TAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 On 9/14/2021 at 4:40 PM, hlcater said: Been spoiled locally the past few seasons. While I'd love for that to continue, we're due for a dud. In Cedar Rapids we've had four straight winters with above average snowfall. Two of the last three I've recorded 50", which is way above average and is a total we rarely reach. We are definitely due for a 20" dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 16 hours ago, buckeye said: TAM Ok, what’s TAM? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Those of us in the lower lakes region have to recognize this up coming system as about the perfect set-up for an epic winter storm....of course it's late September and we'll never get it to happen in January. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 9 hours ago, Frog Town said: Those of us in the lower lakes region have to recognize this up coming system as about the perfect set-up for an epic winter storm....of course it's late September and we'll never get it to happen in January. We would be buried, let this be a sign of the storm track for the winter though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Time for MI folks to ride the LRC all winter! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Stebo said: We would be buried, let this be a sign of the storm track for the winter though. Nah, you guys are getting this out of the way early. Wagons west! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Nah, you guys are getting this out of the way early. Wagons west! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 On 9/21/2021 at 7:08 AM, pondo1000 said: Ok, what’s TAM? Temperate and moist 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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