Maestrobjwa Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 58 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I feel like I’m missing some context on that graphic because that’s confusing. Wider shot here. I read this as saying that 70% of la ninas have below normal snow, and 60% were warmer than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 0z GFS run had the first major mountain snow of the season at the end of its run but nothing for the anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: 0z GFS run had the first major mountain snow of the season at the end of its run but nothing for the anyone else. Maybe it will be cool for Halloween weekend this year looking at the LR. that would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 9 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now someone explain to me...how the "It's only October" response works when folks start writing off this winter...when the la nina statistics look like this: (this is from the last 10 la ninas) I mean...isn't this like a slam dunk seasonal forecast given that only one aberration is 95/96?...I mean ya barely have to track because you know what it's gonna look like pretty much, lol Now the other ENSO states seem to be less predictable around here... How do you interpret that as such a negative stat? The temp is only 0.1F above seasonal average and snow is only 1.5" below seasonal average. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 the winter is going to suck. warm. not snowy. blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 No one liked the 00z GFS in fantasy land? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 It’s fantasy for a reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 54 minutes ago, mappy said: the winter is going to suck. warm. not snowy. blah. Yup. I’m trying to just accept it and hope we get 1-2 nice events and maybe a good cold shot finally amidst general crap. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 It’s over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 After a 500mb low at -500dm anomaly off the West coast (Day 4), it might get warm to overperform here. I also expect -PNA, strong, through November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 9 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wider shot here. I read this as saying that 70% of la ninas have below normal snow, and 60% were warmer than normal. Lol. You could pretty much say the same thing for any ENSO scenario. When was the last BN temp winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 RIP Winter 2021-22 Here lies a season of weather that never stood a chance Oct 1 2020-Oct 22 2020 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 2 hours ago, mappy said: the winter is going to suck. warm. not snowy. blah. So same as usual then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Maybe it will pourover into NAO---___ https://ibb.co/gPMQCHp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 50 minutes ago, dailylurker said: So same as usual then. i think it will only get worse as years go on. averages will slowly become lower over time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Yup. I’m trying to just accept it and hope we get 1-2 nice events and maybe a good cold shot finally amidst general crap. 11-12 repeat on tap is my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 12 minutes ago, mappy said: 11-12 repeat on tap is my guess 2001-2002 is firmly in my list of analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, mattie g said: 2001-2002 is firmly in my list of analogs. i dont recall that winter very well, high school, meh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, mappy said: i dont recall that winter very well, high school, meh. It sucked, much like 2011-2012. Maybe we luck into another 2019-2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 minute ago, mattie g said: It sucked, much like 2011-2012. Maybe we luck into another 2019-2020. when has luck ever helped us? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 22, 2021 Author Share Posted October 22, 2021 Last time I ever start a MR/LR thread...:( 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 2 hours ago, mappy said: i think it will only get worse as years go on. averages will slowly become lower over time. Leaves now begin to change when once the first freeze and flakes were likely. Your grandchildren will grow to associate pumpkins with the Christmas holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 @Maestrobjwa if we apply the average of each climatological period...BWI has had below normal snowfall 22 of the last 30 years. That means ANY year there is a 73% chance that it will be below average. And considering the average snowfall is pretty low...that means there is a 73% chance winter is going to SUCK every year. Most winters in this region suck. That is just climo. The average is inflated by 1-2 really big anomalous snowfall years each decade. Our typical normal climo in a decade is to have 1-2 really huge winters with 30"+ snowfall...one near average winter with about 20" and 7 bad winters with some degree of god awful to just regular old crappy low snowfall. That is what normal is the mid atlantic. I don't fault anyone for not being happy with that...but that is reality. That's why I moved to the northern edge of our region and on top of a freaking mountain ridge...and frankly I am still not satisfied wrt snowfall far too often. But living in and around DC and Baltimore and expecting 20" of snowfall every winter is just not aligned with reality and will leave you disappointed about 75% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 4 hours ago, mappy said: when has luck ever helped us? You don't know how bad it could have been without luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But living in and around DC and Baltimore and expecting 20" of snowfall every winter is just not aligned with reality and will leave you disappointed about 75% of the time. Who said anything about everytime? I'm under no such delusion. I'd be happy with intervals we got that between 1982-83 and 2015-+16. We'd go 3-4 years, then get a 20 inch winter--and in between that was kinda mediocre. That's fine--it's what my generation grew up with--and thus it's what I'd come to expect out of this region. But this stretch we're in now goes beyond that, and is the longest since the 70s. Now maybe this will even out I don't know...but with all the climate talk I'm not so sure. So in summary...this is a longer interval than some of us born post 70s have seen in our lifetime. (I think between 1987-1993 may have been about this long) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Winter cancel cancel (-PNA/-PDO) https://ibb.co/pjLHdtB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 3 hours ago, nj2va said: Last time I ever start a MR/LR complaining about winter thread...:( ...which hasn't even happened yet. At this rate, we'll have run out of complaining by the first 70f day of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 46 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said: ..which hasn't even happened yet. It kinda has...it happened last year, 2017-18, 2016-17....(list other la ninas not named 95/96 here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 8 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Yup. I’m trying to just accept it and hope we get 1-2 nice events and maybe a good cold shot finally amidst general crap. Kinda where I'm at. Hoping for at least some legit cold and a few scenery WWA events (can we get a couple 2 inchers? Lol) if we can manage it. That actually wouldn't be terrible for a nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Move to Longyearbyen before it's too late! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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