SnowenOutThere Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 Imagine this setup in Jan if the high was better placed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 37 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Imagine this setup in Jan if the high was better placed. Nice looking coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said: Imagine this setup in Jan if the high was better placed. 57 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Nice looking coastal The GFS has also been toying with the idea of a possible coastal storm in the 21st-24th timeframe as well. It could potentially be a good sign as we head into winter. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 42 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: The GFS has also been toying with the idea of a possible coastal storm in the 21st-24th timeframe as well. It could potentially be a good sign as we head into winter. We'll see. # atmospheric memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 36 minutes ago, Chris78 said: # atmospheric memory "it snows where it wants to snow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 13 minutes ago, IronTy said: "it snows where it wants to snow" "Weather doesn't give a sh*t about your feelings" 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 3 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: Imagine this setup in Jan if the high was better placed. The panel before that is a smashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 WB 0Z EURO control was out of control with overnight run… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 0.4 for Short Pump...book it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, JB Fins said: 0.4 for Short Pump...book it. I agree, euro at d13 is like a laser freight train for accuracy. Even DC gets in on the action with 0.1". Might top last winter before we even get out of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 First off. WE DO NOT WANT OCTOBER SNOW. 2nd .. the euro is lol 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: First off. WE DO NOT WANT OCTOBER SNOW. 2nd .. the euro is lol I will take early season snow rather than stress over whether peak climo will deliver mid January to mid February. But I understand the point that historically if we get an early season snow it usually means the rest of the winter is a dud. I can remember a foot of snow Veterans Day 1987 inside the Beltway. I will never forget my early dismissal from UMCP. My 20 minute drive took me over 4 hours and cars were abandoned all along my trip home. Huge thump of snow with thunder in about 4 hours. I don’t think we got much else that year. That is when I officially start tracking because it can happen!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 I remember a time when the NAM was the crazy model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 4 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I remember a time when the NAM was the crazy model. It still is, but from 84 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 WB 18Z GFS Not snow, but also showing a deep trough over the East last few days of October, like last Night Euro control run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 WB EURO seasonal from last night for late Nov. Not bad to my non expert eye… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 Kinda surprised that looking forward, it looks like the southern mid-Atlantic might not see any frosts or freezes before, like, mid-November at the rate things seem to be going. Certainly not looking likely this month. Probably completely anecdotal, but hopefully that’s not an omen/correlation for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 GEFS and GEPS are advertising increasing h5 heights in the high latitudes towards the end of the month. I'll take this look about 10 weeks from now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 11 hours ago, SoCoWx said: Kinda surprised that looking forward, it looks like the southern mid-Atlantic might not see any frosts or freezes before, like, mid-November at the rate things seem to be going. Certainly not looking likely this month. Probably completely anecdotal, but hopefully that’s not an omen/correlation for winter. The new normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 On 10/15/2021 at 8:10 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: First off. WE DO NOT WANT OCTOBER SNOW. 2nd .. the euro is lol It’s such a small sample size it’s hard to draw strong conclusions wrt causation. Additionally, since our winters are skewed low wrt snowfall almost any variable will show some correlation to low snowfall. That’s because we are likely to get a crappy winter ANY year since like 65-70% are crap! That said early snowfall obviously is not an indication of a snowy winter either. And since we tend to get pattern cycles plus the effect of pattern drivers changes as the winter jet strengthens it also stands to reason getting a good pattern in October/November probably is a net negative for the odds of getting one in January. But…snow is so rare here I’m on the “take it when you can get it” train. Yea I’d rather a storm in January but I’m not kicking an October snow out of bed either. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 On 10/15/2021 at 7:25 PM, Weather Will said: WB EURO seasonal from last night for late Nov. Not bad to my non expert eye… That's an ugly firehose of pacific air. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 29 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's an ugly firehose of pacific air. They always look like that. Height lines always look very zonal at long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 -NAO going to on to like 45 straight days. Unfortunately October NAO is like 60% correlated with Winter +NAO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 Airmass coming in for next weekend and early the following week looks like the first legit BN pattern in awhile. 50s for highs and frost/freeze potential for outer burbs. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 3 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: -NAO going to on to like 45 straight days. Unfortunately October NAO is like 60% correlated with Winter +NAO. Please start posting some sources when you throw these stats out. You've become so confusing with your cross posting in different threads. One minute you're giving the impression that we stand a chance for climo, the next it sounds like we're staring down a dumpster fire. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 We are also going to have the most -PNA on record for Sept-Oct since 1948, by a long shot. Next one is like 0.70/this. (I'm using 500mb). I am also going to bring this up... Deepening in the central Nina-subsurface, models will trend much more -PNA in the coming days. https://ibb.co/8gYRDsk. I expect us to be deep -PNA into Nov 5th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 6 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Please start posting some sources when you throw these stats out. You've become so confusing with your cross posting in different threads. One minute you're giving the impression that we stand a chance for climo, the next it sounds like we're staring down a dumpster fire. -pna 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Expect models to trend warmer in the LR for the next few days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Had a frost in central NC this morning. Earliest one in years. Got down to 38. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 GFS does a really cool shot next Monday from what I can see! Week out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now