Maestrobjwa Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 50 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s not the questions you’re asking. It’s the gloomy and doom point of view you’re asking them from. When I read your posts everything seems to be the “it’ll never snow big again, just have to get used to this being the norm” type of comment. Nobody cares about the questions, or the point of view actually, but when your posting seemingly has you on the edge because of weather that might or might not happen, don’t be surprised when people jump in and try to push you off that edge. In reality, all they are doing is having fun with you. Its only weather. And it hasn’t happened yet. But this is all I’ll say about it. I'm not "on the edge" though. If anything I got further away from that edge after last year didn't work out. I get it...we don't know what's gonna happen yet. But I disagree that we can't speculate at what we've been seeing. I remember @psuhoffmansaying last winter essentially that "we'd better hope this doesn't become a problem" and his several posts of "How is this not cold enough???". And did climate not come up in the conversation last winter as well? I mean I'm basing a lot of this just from what I've heard from some of y'all on here!! (particularly the better minds). So like...did I misinterpret all that? Lol BUT...on the other hand I get it...I was a lot of gloom and doom last winter. I tend to focus on the negative possibilities to prepare myself in case it happens. But you're right...it ain't happened yet. But with what we've seen the last few years it's hard not to go there...been a rough stretch. But I'll try to do better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 Btw today's questions were legit "how did that happen" questions. I get because of my history how they may have sounded like gloom and doom (although that was the wrong interpretation)...but I really did wanna know how the cold air got trapped on the other side of the globe...was just curious. I mean we CAN analyze what's already happened, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 FROPA still on track for D7-8. Doesn’t look cold behind it, but hopefully seasonable. Better than this crap and what we’ll have next week ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: FROPA still on track for D7-8. Doesn’t look cold behind it, but hopefully seasonable. Better than this crap and what we’ll have next week ahead of it. Given that we are ~+7* or so for the month going into today, and this looks to maintain / build going into mid month, how does this compare with other weak-mod la nina Octobers? The model is depicting potentially a near historically warm October and not just here. Outside of a couple cool downs to normal, pattern looks impressively (or depressingly) stable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 I saw a chart earlier today on Twitter, but can’t find it now on my phone, showing that most of the Top 10 warmest October’s in the CONUS were during Ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 -PNA is record setting. +400dm coming up. This Sept/Oct is going to be most -PDO, meaning Aleutian ridge/GOA trough since satellites in 1948. November analog carry the trend, as does through February, -PNA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I saw a chart earlier today on Twitter, but can’t find it now on my phone, showing that most of the Top 10 warmest October’s in the CONUS were during Ninas. These 3 stick out, if it helps any. (Meaning, I don't know how big of a nina each year was. Someone may know.) 2007...63.6f 1984...61.8f 1971...61.4f avg of 56.6f all at IAD The 1971 led to a warm Dec+Jan, but cold snowy Feb. 1985 led to a record cold spell in Jan 2007 led to pathetic, don't ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 2007-08 would be way better than 2011-12… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 48 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 2007-08 would be way better than 2011-12… Having 2011-12 again would doubly suck since we literally just had that winter before last! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 Ya know, I'd settle for a 2017-18 la nina...at least we got above median that year, lol (It was just through a lot of nuisance-level scenery events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 I'm looking forward to the huge sleet storm for Valentine's day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 29 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm looking forward to the huge sleet storm for Valentine's day Nice. I’m anxious for the Boxing Day repeat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Nice. I’m anxious for the Boxing Day repeat. That one underperformed here, but still managed 5 inches or so. Much more just to my east. I should have chased that one to the beach too, along with Jan 17 and 18. Big snowstorms on the immediate MA coast with a whiff inland seem to be a thing during a Nina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: That one underperformed here, but still managed 5 inches or so. Much more just to my east. I should have chased that one to the beach too, along with Jan 17 and 18. Big snowstorms on the immediate MA coast with a whiff inland seem to be a thing during a Nina. Southeast ridge, dominant northern stream, bad luck on big coastals … I won’t be surprised if we get nothing but a few isolated flurries this winter. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 8, 2021 Share Posted October 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Southeast ridge, dominant northern stream, bad luck on big coastals … I won’t be surprised if we get nothing but a few isolated flurries this winter. Canaan will still get 100". I will roll with whatever, and do a chase or 2 if necessary. I have plenty of work to do outside so I can make do with a mild/dry winter just fine. Much nicer to be outside than any summer month around here (May through October). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 51 minutes ago, CAPE said: Canaan will still get 100". I will roll with whatever, and do a chase or 2 if necessary. I have plenty of work to do outside so I can make do with a mild/dry winter just fine. Much nicer to be outside than any summer month around here (May through October). Of course, when I post that crap, I’m being facetious. I have no clue what’s gonna happen. But to your post, I have no evidence to back me, but with a dominant northern stream, I’d say Canaan tends to do well in that setup because of all the backside flow off of Lake Erie. I would think there will be plenty of upslope there regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 9, 2021 Author Share Posted October 9, 2021 One of the best things about upslope is when it’ll be non-accumulating snow for 24 hours after the “real” snow ends…it just never seems to want to stop and adds a nice element to being outside in it. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 18z GFS hr378 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 9, 2021 Share Posted October 9, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: 18z GFS hr378 About time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 On 10/8/2021 at 5:01 PM, WxUSAF said: 2007-08 would be way better than 2011-12… 2011-12 was pain. We wait all year for basically a 8 to 10 week window of snow opportunity. That year you just knew by Thanksgiving the season was a total wash. Total pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 11, 2021 Share Posted October 11, 2021 This pattern is useless for snow for us in early-mid November. Maybe pity mood flakes. Honestly hope it doesn’t stick like that long so a better chance it can recycle by mid December. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Some hints on LR GFS that at least the Potomac highlands could see first frost/freeze in the 25-26 time period. Hard to imagine getting out of October without this happening, but fairly certain most of the region has the growing season persisting even into the higher elevations. It's getting pretty late in the season for this to not have happened at least once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Parts of New England, NY, and PA are going to crush their latest first freeze records. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Parts of New England, NY, and PA are going to crush their latest first freeze records. Caribou hasn't broke freezing yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 00z GFS brings western areas their first upper 30s and rain of the season in about 10 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 7 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: 00z GFS brings western areas their first upper 30s and rain of the season in about 10 days. Late October with 30's and moderate rain in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 7 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: 00z GFS brings western areas their first upper 30s and rain of the season in about 10 days. 33 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Late October with 30's and moderate rain in the afternoon. Thats my winter weather too 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 10 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: That map has adjacent zones with over a month differential. Not sure it is the best way to display it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 2 hours ago, MN Transplant said: That map has adjacent zones with over a month differential. Not sure it is the best way to display it. Yeah, it's whacky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now