Nov/Dec 2021 Med/Long Range

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, frd said:

Little by little is doesn't really matter whether the Pac is on our side or not.  Blocking in the AO and NAO domains doesn't gaurantee or foster snow any longer to the lower lattititudes, which includes us. In a general warming base state you will achieve less cold air intrusions with less severity when you start with  less available cold air, but also a not so conducive cryosphere to transport that cold air to lower lattitudes. 

Telleconnections do not work as they did before.  Analog years do not work as they did before. Data shows that less and less snow is falling in our area and in areas to our SW and South.   Get use to pathetic snowfall and warmth year around. 

 

But other then that how was the play Mrs Lincoln? 

[frd]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

But other then that how was the play Mrs Lincoln? 

I love to hear your thoughts Mr Douglass,  but alas you live in the promise land .

[EastCoast NPZ]

10+ days in a row with upper 50s and 60s for lows in October is complete bull****.

[WinterWxLuvr]

22 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

10+ days in a row with upper 50s and 60s for lows in October is complete bull****.

It’s awful. It should be 20’s and snowing

[mattie g]

3 hours ago, frd said:

Continued warmth ahead .....for mid October 

Little by little is doesn't really matter whether the Pac is on our side or not.  Blocking in the AO and NAO domains doesn't gaurantee or foster snow any longer to the lower lattititudes, which includes us. In a general warming base state you will achieve less cold air intrusions with less severity when you start with  less available cold air, but also a not so conducive cryosphere to transport that cold air to lower lattitudes. 

Telleconnections do not work as they did before.  Analog years do not work as they did before. Data shows that less and less snow is falling in our area and in areas to our SW and South.   Get use to pathetic snowfall and warmth year around. 

What's the time period for which this snowfall analysis is taking place?

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z through the weekend on the major models…GFS is still the driest.  I think tracking this winter is going to be very frustrating.  I guess I won’t get my expectations up for snowstorms outside three days unless at least three global models are in agreement.

[EastCoast NPZ]

6 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s awful. It should be 20’s and snowing

No, that's a tough feat for us in the middle of January .   But it's not too much to expect some lows and dewpoints in the 40s in Mid October. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

26 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

No, that's a tough feat for us in the middle of January .   But it's not too much to expect some lows and dewpoints in the 40s in Mid October. 

6 of the last 14 at KOKV have been in the 40’s. 
 

It’s also October 6. 

[WxUSAF]

I’m looking for any sign of a nicer fall pattern…the last 24-48 hours of model runs are hinting that maybe the cold front from the big Colorado low next week might eventually push through, probably with a second wave developing along the front as it stalls initially to our west. 

[Chris78]

5 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z through the weekend on the major models…GFS is still the driest.  I think tracking this winter is going to be very frustrating.  I guess I won’t get my expectations up for snowstorms outside three days unless at least three global models are in agreement.

Always go with the driest and warmest. Especially in the winter. 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 hours ago, Weather Will said:

I think tracking this winter is going to be very frustrating.  I guess I won’t get my expectations up for snowstorms outside three days unless at least three global models are in agreement.

I wouldn't if I were you! Lol I know I ain't...I mean maybe from a distance, but that's about it! Don't see the point since a) it's a Nina and b) we don't know about the base state and what still works and what doesn't!

[EastCoast NPZ]

3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

6 of the last 14 at KOKV have been in the 40’s. 
 

It’s also October 6. 

And the lowest temperature at OKV in the past 3 days is 59.  The lowest forecasted in the next 7 is 58. That takes us to Oct 13th.

[CAPE]

8 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m looking for any sign of a nicer fall pattern…the last 24-48 hours of model runs are hinting that maybe the cold front from the big Colorado low next week might eventually push through, probably with a second wave developing along the front as it stalls initially to our west. 

GFS/GEFS suggesting some relaxation in the persistent -PNA in the LR. Some hope for the latter part of the month to feel more Fall-like.

There sure has been a tendency towards blocking ridges recently. Maybe that persists and shifts further north over the next couple months.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z…Euro shifted east with heaviest rain, but it and Can. still nothing like GFS for the weekend.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

31 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z…Euro shifted east with heaviest rain, but it and Can. still nothing like GFS for the weekend.  

The euro is becoming quite unreliable at range

[CAPE]

Snippet from Mount Holly on the continuing mild pattern-

Little change to the overall thinking in the long term as a high amplitude pattern of Western US troughing and Eastern US ridging develops. Those looking for a return to cool and crisp autumn conditions will have to continue waiting, as this is a surefire warm pattern for our area. One recent change is that it does look like the onshore flow regime from over the weekend could continue well into Monday, which would lead to another day with a lot of cloud cover. Beyond then, while some minor day-to-day variation is likely, the overriding theme will be mainly dry conditions and temperatures running solidly above seasonal averages as ridging dominates the pattern. In fact, for the entire forecast period, there are no locations in the entire CWA forecast to drop below 50 degrees through the end of next week, not even the Poconos. A rather unusual stretch of temperatures as we approach mid-October.

 

Another 7 days of warm and then maybe a change next weekend as a front approaches. If the GFS has the right idea, the week after next would feel like actual Fall, with normal/slightly below normal temps.

[WxUSAF]

Yes, increasing confidence we finally get a real FROPA around next weekend. Can’t wait.

[IronTy]

On 10/6/2021 at 3:03 PM, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z through the weekend on the major models…GFS is still the driest.  I think tracking this winter is going to be very frustrating.  I guess I won’t get my expectations up for snowstorms outside three days unless at least three global models are in agreement.

Incoming winter confirmed.  The snow hole is getting set up.  

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Incoming winter confirmed.  The snow hole is getting set up.  

We just can't know if it will get cold enough to snow.  It barely did last year for the lowlands, and if not for the persistent -AO/NAO it may have ended up much like the winter before.

Therefore, 'Precip hole' setting up. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

21 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Incoming winter confirmed.  The snow hole is getting set up.  

Go look at the Euro forecast now. Remember that the first time it spits out a day 7 snowstorm  this winter.

[aldie 22]

On 10/6/2021 at 8:48 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

I wouldn't if I were you! Lol I know I ain't...I mean maybe from a distance, but that's about it! Don't see the point since a) it's a Nina and b) we don't know about the base state and what still works and what doesn't!

Since you won't be tracking does that mean instead of 50 questions a page you will only ask 40?

[IronTy]

3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Go look at the Euro forecast now. Remember that the first time it spits out a day 7 snowstorm  this winter.

Looks legit 

[WinterWxLuvr]

9 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Looks legit 

But at least with the gfs, it looked like that from the start.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

Since you won't be tracking does that mean instead of 50 questions a page you will only ask 40?

What's wrong with asking questions? This is what I mean...now granted I'm learning more about what ya just can't know for sure...so those more chaos-related questions? Not so much. I probably won't be on as much in general (unless there's something 24 hours out...and even then just sparingly, lol)

But see...y'all have turned it into a more hostile place to ask questions because of comments like this.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What's wrong with asking questions? This is what I mean...now granted I'm learning more about what ya just can't know for sure...so those more chaos-related questions? Not so much.

But see...y'all have turned it into a more hostile place to ask questions because of comments like this.

Don’t take leesburg too seriously. He’s here for the sunshine and the lulz

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Don’t take leesburg too seriously. He’s here for the sunshine and the lulz

I'm talking about him and others. I don't even want to ask questions anymore because I'll probably get trolled (again). Worst mistake I ever made on here was apparently asking too many questions last year....and now nobody will let me forget it--despite the crazier posters on here that get a pass.

Now I'm asking more for a "how things work" reason than a "What will definitely happen" reason.

[WxUSAF]

Best RoT is to never take the imaginary internet people too seriously 

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm talking about him and others. I don't even want to ask questions anymore because I'll probably get trolled (again). Worst mistake I ever made on here was apparently asking too many questions last year....and now nobody will let me forget it--despite the crazier posters on here that get a pass.

Now I'm asking more for a "how things work" reason than a "What will definitely happen" reason.

I'm ok if you stop asking questions but hey that's just me

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm talking about him and others. I don't even want to ask questions anymore because I'll probably get trolled (again). Worst mistake I ever made on here was apparently asking too many questions last year....and now nobody will let me forget it--despite the crazier posters on here that get a pass.

Now I'm asking more for a "how things work" reason than a "What will definitely happen" reason.

It’s not the questions you’re asking. It’s the gloomy and doom point of view you’re asking them from. When I read your posts everything seems to be the “it’ll never snow big again, just have to get used to this being the norm” type of comment. 
 

Nobody cares about the questions, or the point of view actually, but when your posting seemingly has you on the edge because of weather that might or might not happen, don’t be surprised when people jump in and try to push you off that edge. In reality, all they are doing is having fun with you.

Its only weather. And it hasn’t happened yet. But this is all I’ll say about it.

[WinterWxLuvr]

GFS long range is more wash, rinse repeat. We seemed to be stuck in a general pattern that has some legs. That’s ok. Let’s just plan on the rubber band snap around Nov 15-20. That would be perfect.