WinterWxLuvr Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 2 hours ago, mattie g said: Just had a quick look at TT. There was a front there at the same timeframe, but it never made it all the way here, then there a reinforcing shot that was to come in but not with a ton of oomph. Just comparing, it just shows the volatility forecasting beyond about 5 days. 10 certanot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 5 hours ago, mattie g said: But did they really show that much of a cooler look? And today's 12z GFS is showing mostly cooler than normal temps after the frontal passage on Wednesday-Thursday. I realize I'm being a little oppositional, but I'm just not sure why there's a bit of hand-wringing about this. I was just making the point. At one time I saw 40s for nights and 60s for the daytime highs for a few days. The front was coming through quicker and it was a bit cooler, heights lower, and it lasted a bit longer. Moving on from this though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 N. America ridge Sept 28-Oct 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 34 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: N. America ridge Sept 28-Oct 5 Perfect! Awesome weather on tap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Yeah, I've been thinking cold Jan Last Feb was COLD. 1 year later cold/warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 I already know it will be like this for January though.. but we may have a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Root for the euro/cmc for next week. GFS has had a cutoff low 4-5 runs in a row which would keep us muggy and warm depending on where it sets up. Euro and CMC keep us in lovely NW flow. Euro has that cutoff at 0z though so obviously a risk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 Definitely looks warmer than normal and dry as we head into the extended period! The cooler looks have vanished from both Euro and GFS after a few small cooler shots the next 5-6 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 15 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Definitely looks warmer than normal and dry as we head into the extended period! The cooler looks have vanished from both Euro and GFS after a few small cooler shots the next 5-6 days. October following September as a new later summer month. Well, that might be grasping, but obvious the cooling that was modeled is vanishing The cooler weather beyond day 5 might simply be falling daily temps following climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 And now the GFS says we warm up for about a week starting Tuesday or so and then a significant cool shot comes in during the first week of October. Can we agree not to take progs beyond maybe Day 7 verbatim? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 1 hour ago, mattie g said: And now the GFS says we warm up for about a week starting Tuesday or so and then a significant cool shot comes in during the first week of October. Can we agree not to take progs beyond maybe Day 7 verbatim? Looks seasonal all in all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 3 hours ago, mattie g said: And now the GFS says we warm up for about a week starting Tuesday or so and then a significant cool shot comes in during the first week of October. Can we agree not to take progs beyond maybe Day 7 verbatim? 12z GFS is hilarious for the beginning of October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Looks seasonal all in all. Some warm days, some cool days. Heaven forbid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: 12z GFS is hilarious for the beginning of October. Ya.. WTH is it doing! LOL! Euro kind of gives me pause for Sam, though I think he is fishy. Anyways... no doubt the models are being wacky! LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 On 9/23/2021 at 2:07 PM, WxUSAF said: 12z GFS is hilarious for the beginning of October. 22 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: Ya.. WTH is it doing! LOL! Euro kind of gives me pause for Sam, though I think he is fishy. Anyways... no doubt the models are being wacky! LOL CMC and Euro today have similar solutions. Could be weird shenanigans next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: CMC and Euro today have similar solutions. Could be weird shenanigans next weekend. Was coming over to say the same! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 On 9/22/2021 at 5:04 PM, midatlanticweather said: Definitely looks warmer than normal and dry as we head into the extended period! The cooler looks have vanished from both Euro and GFS after a few small cooler shots the next 5-6 days. I'm shocked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'm shocked. LOL! GFS is getting funky too! Just so strange looking! Loop this! https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?p=500wh&rh=2021092418&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 This is stranger than it looks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 A classic omega block is setting up this week with a high amplitude ridge to the west and the northeast under an upper low that looks to close off. Models vary on exact location and strength as the week progresses. Overall looks like NE flow regime with cool temps from Wed onward, with a mixture of sunny and cloudy periods, and maybe some shower chances, but most of the precip appears to stay offshore. Latest GFS brings some decent showers through late Tuesday with a shortwave as the trough over the NE digs southward. Who knows how things evolve towards next weekend with any tropical influence from the Atlantic- doesn't look like much at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 All that whinging about D10 progs that were chilly and then warmed up…6z GFS has highs in the 60s from Wednesday through next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Big -PNA, huge ridge through October 10. Rolloed forward into November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 26, 2021 Share Posted September 26, 2021 On 9/25/2021 at 8:10 AM, WxUSAF said: All that whinging about D10 progs that were chilly and then warmed up…6z GFS has highs in the 60s from Wednesday through next weekend. The big problem with the GFS forecast now is that we barely see the sun for a week starting 5-6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 26, 2021 Share Posted September 26, 2021 I think this Aleutian ridge is just feeding off of SSTs (384hr) Should be interesting to see what happens.. I think there is not much correlation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 26, 2021 Share Posted September 26, 2021 Will be of interest to keep track to see any upstream effect from the recurving typhoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 26, 2021 Share Posted September 26, 2021 Beautiful day everyone….since it is boring let’s see which model has a better handle on the next 10 days EURO/ Canadian dry or the wet GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 Nice -NAO https://ibb.co/RhbHT17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 27, 2021 Share Posted September 27, 2021 Really wet actually 7 October's in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Warmish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 29, 2021 Author Share Posted September 29, 2021 I’d be ok with that. It’d be 60s to 70 in October which sounds good to me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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