Prestige Worldwide Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 That’s right he said blowtorch !!! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: That’s right he said blowtorch !!! Good lord. And he’s a pro?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 He’s not totally wrong. That -NAO might help keep us a bit more seasonable, but a lot of the country will have well AN temps with that -PNA out west. And it will flush Canada of cold air. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: He’s not totally wrong. That -NAO might help keep us a bit more seasonable, but a lot of the country will have well AN temps with that -PNA out west. And it will flush Canada of cold air. Do you think we will need to see the GOA trough retrograde before we realistically have a good chance at a colder pattern other than barely normal? I know we are in laniña, but was just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 I’m always a little perplexed by these forecasts. Ensemble means tend to be pretty zonal. That’s what that looks like to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: He’s not totally wrong. That -NAO might help keep us a bit more seasonable, but a lot of the country will have well AN temps with that -PNA out west. And it will flush Canada of cold air. True but I’ll counter him with 3 points. 1) by day 15 the EPS and GEPS hint that pacific look was transient and not necessarily a huge problem. 2) It’s so far out and things have been variable at that range that I’m not sure his “alarm” is warranted yet 3) expectations need to be set accordingly. Imo our range of likely outcomes this winter wrt snow are awful to ok. The pac base state is likely to be more bad than good most of the time. I’m leaning toward “ok” but the way we get there is for the pacific ridge to be more poleward and the NAO to be favorable at times then time then up with a few periods of “less hostile” pacific longwave patterns. So far I see signs both those things might be true. That’s all I’m asking for right now. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: He’s not totally wrong. That -NAO might help keep us a bit more seasonable, but a lot of the country will have well AN temps with that -PNA out west. And it will flush Canada of cold air. As usual, the challenges with changing patterns and alignment on the right features at the right times is a game of luck! A more favorable pattern does not always equal a good outcome. We know it is not just the right pattern signals, but also the right items in the right places at the right time to get wintry weather. Also, in transition periods the models obviously get the details wrong even if they provide clues to what could happen. My take, (and I realize I ain't no pro!) is that we will miss out as the couple of opportunities that showed are no longer there, but, the pattern is slightly more favorable for a feature or system to do provide some flakes. So far, the few blips of potential have been lost on subsequent model runs and this slightly favorable period looks like a miss for anything in the region. The cold does not seem lasting (which I think we will have to get used to this winter, but especially this time of year) and the more zonal look of the long-range should be no surprise to anyone. Maybe something is being missed or not represented right on the models, but I think we remain waiting with a few small cold shots! Maybe we get lucky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 JB says december is going to be cold and snowy so that's that!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said: As usual, the challenges with changing patterns and alignment on the right features at the right times is a game of luck! A more favorable pattern does not always equal a good outcome. We know it is not just the right pattern signals, but also the right items in the right places at the right time to get wintry weather. Also, in transition periods the models obviously get the details wrong even if they provide clues to what could happen. My take, (and I realize I ain't no pro!) is that we will miss out as the couple of opportunities that showed are no longer there, but, the pattern is slightly more favorable for a feature or system to do provide some flakes. So far, the few blips of potential have been lost on subsequent model runs and this slightly favorable period looks like a miss for anything in the region. The cold does not seem lasting (which I think we will have to get used to this winter, but especially this time of year) and the more zonal look of the long-range should be no surprise to anyone. Maybe something is being missed or not represented right on the models, but I think we remain waiting with a few small cold shots! Maybe we get lucky! Every year it is rinse and repeat. Our reminder was this latest Lucy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: True but I’ll counter him with 3 points. 1) by day 15 the EPS and GEPS hint that pacific look was transient and not necessarily a huge problem. 2) It’s so far out and things have been variable at that range that I’m not sure his “alarm” is warranted yet 3) expectations need to be set accordingly. Imo our range of likely outcomes this winter wrt snow are awful to ok. The pac base state is likely to be more bad than good most of the time. I’m leaning toward “ok” but the way we get there is for the pacific ridge to be more poleward and the NAO to be favorable at times then time then up with a few periods of “less hostile” pacific longwave patterns. So far I see signs both those things might be true. That’s all I’m asking for right now. I haven’t seen the EPS that far out in awhile but GEPS and GEFS do look worlds apart in the PAC after D7 or so. Things have been pretty transient across the CONUS with the -NAO and the -WPO seemingly the most persistent long wave patterns impacting us of late. Both have some Nina/QBO/PDO support for being persistent this winter. I hope that trough doesn’t crash into the west coast too much. I don’t mind having a meh snow pattern in early December…we don’t get much snow then anyway. But I definitely don’t want to flush Canada of cold air. That takes 2-3 weeks to recover. Need to have cold air available to tap when we get a chance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 -PNA really builds in, I wouldn't be surprised if the GOA deepens little more, and coming out of -NAO, that's a good recipe for snowstorm. I think 40N still, somewhere in the 1st week of Dec. I have to remember the maps are always skewed warm, so the La Nina, for example, is stronger than the anomalies look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 With the NAO trending +, the AO trending +, the PNA trending -, the MJO confused and in search of an identity, that causes the NO index for SNO to trend in the severely - direction. This is just IMO, and could be wrong, especially with no strong SIG in the ENS. CBS for further updates and a SITREP. 2 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 55 minutes ago, ldub23 said: JB says december is going to be cold and snowy so that's that!! December to Remember! He was touting that non-stop a couple years ago and how the pattern was going to be crazy cold and stormy. Turns out it blowtorched all month and was one of the least snowy Decembers on record or something like that. Most reliable contrarian indicator. It's definitely over now. Maybe low solar can save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 December to Remember! He was touting that non-stop a couple years ago and how the pattern was going to be crazy cold and stormy. Turns out it blowtorched all month and was one of the least snowy Decembers on record or something like that. Most reliable contrarian indicator. It's definitely over now. Maybe low solar can save us.He just constantly talks about snow and cold and it doesn’t matter how often he’s incorrect or what he makes up. His audience has been groomed to fall for his hype. No accountability at all. Sounds familiar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 Yeah, it's not looking good. Maybe we'll have a big +150dm -NAO in January. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: JB says december is going to be cold and snowy so that's that!! JB says a lot of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 3 hours ago, anotherman said: He just constantly talks about snow and cold and it doesn’t matter how often he’s incorrect or what he makes up. His audience has been groomed to fall for his hype. No accountability at all. Sounds familiar. Eerily familiar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 51 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said: Eerily familiar... Does it have to do with the initials JB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 I would vote for a new December thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I would vote for a new December thread. Make it so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 5 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: With the NAO trending +, the AO trending +, the PNA trending -, the MJO confused and in search of an identity, that causes the NO index for SNO to trend in the severely - direction. This is just IMO, and could be wrong, especially with no strong SIG in the ENS. CBS for further updates and a SITREP. I read that the WTF index is very unfavorable, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 46 minutes ago, yoda said: Make it so But you know there's a good chance the December thread could turn into... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 We need a completely new thread. Bad karma to just keep the same one running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 39 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We need a completely new thread. Bad karma to just keep the same one running. Do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 Eerily familiar... Yeah, and he could burn down the White House and they would still love him. As someone once said, “those who stand for nothing fall for anything.” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Do it I did one. Can see if that takes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 On 11/16/2021 at 9:40 AM, Weather Will said: Off the NWS site, still learning how to read this, but looks like MJO will be moving into more favorable phases… Not really. COD could be acceptable now. But no amplification is not a good thing heading into Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now