WinterWxLuvr Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 52 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: time to take a mountain drive That would totally suck. We need the proper transition to 70’s 60’s 50’s and 40’s by around Nov 15. Then we can start thinking about cold and snow. I’m all for a sunny 65 degree days for Oct. Almost all the way to November. Then let the bottom drop out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: time to take a mountain drive I did last December and had a blast! Would definitely do again if timing lines up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 18z GFS says any summer heat is gone in a few days. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 13 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: 18z GFS says any summer heat is gone in a few days. Solid trend in our favor recently for next week. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 17, 2021 Author Share Posted September 17, 2021 3 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: 18z GFS says any summer heat is gone in a few days. Shoot, I was hoping to wear my speedo for another month. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 50 minutes ago, nj2va said: Shoot, I was hoping to wear my speedo for another month. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Just...no. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Who took that pic of me and posted it? I've let myself go a bit much in retirement. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Euro and GFS Now look to get us a taste of fall again at the end of next week. At least some below normal temps for a bit! Hopefully that holds. GFS has been advertising it (and way overdoing it at times) and it now looks possible! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 This upcoming Thursday morning looks very nice on the 06z GFS... widespread upper 40s to low 50s 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Lookin' good for my return next Thursday. I have gotten used to actual early Fall weather. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Euro has the frontal passage on Thursday. GFS Wednesday. Go USA! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 I'm in Wyoming and tomorrow is when the front comes through. It has been high temps around 72-75 and lows in the upper 20s low 30s. High tomorrow only around 50 and snow around 7,000 ft Sunday night. I'll bring it back with me 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 18 hours ago, MN Transplant said: Euro has the frontal passage on Thursday. GFS Wednesday. Go USA! Thursday afternoon with strong storms please. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 18, 2021 Author Share Posted September 18, 2021 GFS continues to beat the fall drum for late next week. 40/50s for lows and highs in the upper 60s/low 70s. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 Anybody gonna start a foliage thread? Trying to pick just the right time to drive up to Friendly Farms (usually our family's autumn drive!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 As usual, the models seem to be backing off thier colder looks later in the week. Still looks nice and refreshing, but we do seem to get the colder Temps muted some as we approach these times, especially early in the year. Not complaining as it will be very nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 WB 12Z EURO rains this week. Heaviest looks like Th. afternoon/ evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 19, 2021 Author Share Posted September 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO rains this week. Heaviest looks like Th. afternoon/ evening. We definitely need the rain…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 57 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO rains this week. Heaviest looks like Th. afternoon/ evening. Not sure the Euro has the handle on this just yet. The trend seems to be a slower frontal passage due to upstream blocking with higher rainfall totals as a result. Coolest post frontal anomalies may never make it to the coastal areas due to resistance from the WAR. FYI, the WPC seems to be going wetter over a larger area versus what the Euro has here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 The coolest anomalies have always rarely made it to the coast following fall fropa in my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 Some indications the AO may start to go negative later this month. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 11 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: As usual, the models seem to be backing off thier colder looks later in the week. Still looks nice and refreshing, but we do seem to get the colder Temps muted some as we approach these times, especially early in the year. Not complaining as it will be very nice! Very true. By Sunday warming begins again. What was forecasted as a nice 4 day period has turned into really just one, Saturday. Might change of course but strong upstream blocking is messing up everything in terms of a quick frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 10 hours ago, frd said: Very true. By Sunday warming begins again. What was forecasted as a nice 4 day period has turned into really just one, Saturday. Might change of course but strong upstream blocking is messing up everything in terms of a quick frontal passage. And now the front is progged to push through without an issue, then a reinforcing shot of cool air showing up for Monday. I really wish people wouldn't make definitive statements on weather a week out. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 38 minutes ago, mattie g said: And now the front is progged to push through without an issue, then a reinforcing shot of cool air showing up for Monday. I really wish people wouldn't make definitive statements on weather a week out. I'm not sure what you're really talking about. Originally the front was forecast to pass our area on Wednesday. Thursday and Friday we're going to be sunny, if you read the Mount Holly AFD you'll still see that Wednesday and Thursday look unsettled. The sun will break out Friday morning late. I would appreciate if people pay attention to a poster's entire post. I said things may change , I never said it's certain. fyi nothing in weather is definite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 GFS looks like typical fall weather for late September into early October. Compared to average I’d say we go through this period near normal to slightly below. There are some truisms that you can usually hang your hat on with medium range forecasting. One, cold fronts always arrive later than forecast. Two, cold air always has a tough time getting past the mountains. Three, air masses are typically modeled colder than they turn out to be. It’s a pronounced modeling bias. None of this is new. Your regular programming will now continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 3 hours ago, mattie g said: And now the front is progged to push through without an issue, then a reinforcing shot of cool air showing up for Monday. I really wish people wouldn't make definitive statements on weather a week out. And honestly, the models showed a much cooler look than what they show now after this front. I did not say it would not get cooler, but the extent and duration are not what was originally showing! I am not complaining, I think I was reminding that super cooler/colder looks on long-term models, tend to be overdone and we should not be surprised, especially at this time of year! This may be wrong, but the models did back off some! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 Another thing to remember is that about 7-10 days ago this weekend looked hot. Am I remembering that correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 5 hours ago, frd said: I'm not sure what you're really talking about. Originally the front was forecast to pass our area on Wednesday. Thursday and Friday we're going to be sunny, if you read the Mount Holly AFD you'll still see that Wednesday and Thursday look unsettled. The sun will break out Friday morning late. I would appreciate if people pay attention to a poster's entire post. I said things may change , I never said it's certain. fyi nothing in weather is definite I was adding onto your post. What I was talking about was the complaining about how the front was slowing down and taking its time to actually move through, and how that meant that any cold push would be muted by the time it reached us. 2 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: And honestly, the models showed a much cooler look than what they show now after this front. I did not say it would not get cooler, but the extent and duration are not what was originally showing! I am not complaining, I think I was reminding that super cooler/colder looks on long-term models, tend to be overdone and we should not be surprised, especially at this time of year! This may be wrong, but the models did back off some! But did they really show that much of a cooler look? And today's 12z GFS is showing mostly cooler than normal temps after the frontal passage on Wednesday-Thursday. I realize I'm being a little oppositional, but I'm just not sure why there's a bit of hand-wringing about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Another thing to remember is that about 7-10 days ago this weekend looked hot. Am I remembering that correctly? Just had a quick look at TT. There was a front there at the same timeframe, but it never made it all the way here, then there a reinforcing shot that was to come in but not with a ton of oomph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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