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Nov/Dec 2021 Med/Long Range


nj2va
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37 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Well, if the eps is correct towards the end of the run (big if) this may be a fun ride after turkey day!

Cross polar flow, with still a nice GL blocking signal.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-8273600.thumb.png.abe2f4537c007f9c8b66651728e9208c.png

Hot damn. Flipped the EPO from the last one I saw. I’d still not mind if that look is can-kicked for a week or so 10 days. Later in December for that type of look never would hurt.

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Tuesday morning snippet for extended forecast: 

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND IN  COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FROM SUNDAY ONWARD  IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONE OR MORE SURFACE LOWS/FRONTAL SYSTEMS. IT  IS TOO EARLY TO RESOLVE DETAILED EFFECTS FROM LOW PRESSURE THAT  MAY BE NEAR THE EAST COAST BY NEXT TUESDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT  RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME THE  RELATIVELY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR MEANINGFUL SNOW EXTENDS FROM THE  CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THE BROAD  
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND COLD AIR MAY PRODUCE SOME LAKE  
EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT AS WELL. EASTERLY FLOW FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH  THE WEEKEND MAY PROMOTE PERIODS OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN  PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  
 
MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY  INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME HIGHS 10F OR MORE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.  ANOTHER SURGE OF CHILLY AIR WILL LIKELY BRING HIGHS OVER THE EAST  BACK DOWN TO 5-15F BELOW NORMAL NEXT MONDAY-TUESDAY. ANOMALIES  COULD TREND COLDER DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE DEPTH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION.

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1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Off the NWS site, still learning how to read this, but looks like MJO will be moving into more favorable phases…

2456BD57-B541-4BCD-A7A7-56E2FB92CBE4.gif

Those RMM plots are terrible. They have a weak mjo and COD which is flat out wrong. There is good convection in the maritimes. Can see the base state we are in right now is in phase 5ish, around 120e

chi200.cfs.eqtr.png

spatial_olrmap_CA_full.gif

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31 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

a good look but we would need luck for it to give us anything good which tends to not be in our favor.

One problem that I can see is that there's a shortwave diving down into the upper Midwest that helps to tug the low up and into the block. I'd also prefer the low heights in Quebec to be father east, but as far as I can tell it's not far from being damn good. I don't know how that would actually play out, but that is a beast of a block and those lower heights in Quebec are on their way to the east. Timing always matters, but I'd take that and see how things shake out as we got closer in time.

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Setup for post-Thanksgiving definitely is nice in broad terms with wavebreaking driving the big -NAO and a quasi 50-50 low. Then a strong southern stream s/w. But it’s November…and because of that, we might have a better chance of flakes next Tuesday/Wednesday with cold NW flow.

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21 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Looks like death to me. Not expecting much this year or next year going forward. If you cannot win with that -NAO block it's time to pack it up gentlemen.

Maybe in mid January peak climo you could say that, but Nov 25-28? Nah .

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