Nov/Dec 2021 Med/Long Range

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Not a valid tool. GFS ensembles and ECMWF. never advanced past that point. 

But op runs are? 

[StormchaserChuck!]

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

But op runs are? 

I use GFS ensemble mean.. it's really good at 384hr, Day 16, general index patterns verify at probably >80% when they have a stronger signal. Fits the pattern of what many analogs are showing, 6z GFS ensembles at 384hr this morning. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

8 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

I use GFS ensemble mean.. it's really good at 384hr, Day 16, general index patterns verify at probably >80% when they have a stronger signal. Fits the pattern of what many analogs are showing, 6z GFS ensembles at 384hr this morning. 

So this is a “Big -PNA” in your opinion?

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

It's getting there. I only say something because it agrees with the cyclical ENSO, and other somewhat valid things imo. I think it's going to hold, -PNA development, in the 1st week of December. Remember we average 2-3" of snow in December, so it might still be early for snowfall. 

[psuhoffman]

52 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Not a valid tool. GFS ensembles and ECMWF. never advanced past that point. 

There is definitely a tool in this thread 

[chris21]

Epic -NAO on the 12z gfs 200 hrs plus out. Upslope machine could be ramping up early this year.

[frd]

 

Significant changes in concensus moving forward with the AO.  Most members take it negative.  A great sign moving forward. Also, no sign at the moment that the SPV and the TPV are going to couple. 

Also of interest is the robust signal for a very negative NAO moving forward.  Could be an active and cold weather period for the East later in the month and in early December. 

 

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

2things)

1) Look at that west-building -NAO at 384hr on the 12z GFS ensembles. It's going to be huge 2-3 days later!

2) -PNA is building and stabilizing after Dec 1. 

Look for a Winterstorm around Dec 5th. 

[NorthArlington101]

EURO with a big hit at Day 8 (next Tuesday). Weird evolution but it gets the job done. 

edit: weird doesn't begin to share whatever this run is -- snowing D.C. south only with a 966mb at the mouth of the Delaware River

[frd]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO with a big hit at Day 8 (Thanksgiving). Weird evolution but it gets the job done. 

edit: weird doesn't begin to share whatever this run is -- snowing D.C. south only with a 966mb at the mouth of the Delaware River

Signal is there for a big storm.  I am sure New England will cash in. 

[NorthArlington101]

[mappy]

#snowtrain

[H2O]

The collective willpower of our forum will make this happen.  Minus Chuck tho

[Heisy]

You don't see a CCB like that too often. That is one hella nuke. Rain in the Poconos and snow in DC

[nj2va]

Only 24 more runs of the Euro to go!

[StormchaserChuck!]

-NAO could hit -3, puts Dec 5th right at perfect timing for high chances.. that the models are getting wetter ahead of it is a good sign. 

[Stormfly]

Looks to be a windmaker if anything else.

[George BM]

13 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

Looks to be a windmaker if anything else.

Yeap. The 12z GFS verbatim would actually be some big time wind Tuesday next week with 60-70kt winds at 1km with decent CCA.

[WinterWxLuvr]

23 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Only 24 more runs of the Euro to go!

I’m sure it will hold

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m sure it will hold

"The big ones are sniffed out early," said everyone. 

[North Balti Zen]

Love your classic (checks notes) pouring rain in Allentown and puking snow in Short Pump storms. Totally typical. Dime a dozen. Lock it in. 

[NorthArlington101]

The Control pulled off something similar, just pushed the heavy bands elsewhere.

Generally, the EPS looked decent. As others have said, looks like a stormy window, bare minimum.

[H2O]

Congrats Short Pump!!

[WxUSAF]

13 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Love your classic (checks notes) pouring rain in Allentown and puking snow in Short Pump storms. Totally typical. Dime a dozen. Lock it in. 

In November!

 

There’s a signal for a strong Miller B possibility next week. Euro phases things way far south so we get snow while GFS does it near our latitude and so we get rain and then cold wind. Climo, November, and La Niña all argue hard for a GFS type solution. Going to be cold though. 

[MN Transplant]

I like the 80kt 925 winds just south of DC on that 12z Euro run

[poolz1]

Well, if the eps is correct towards the end of the run (big if) this may be a fun ride after turkey day!

Cross polar flow, with still a nice GL blocking signal.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Only 24 more runs of the Euro to go!

Lock it in 

[SnowenOutThere]

This is the one, it’s so absurdly stupid that this has to be the way we get snow.

[WxUSAF]

39 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I like the 80kt 925 winds just south of DC on that 12z Euro run

You thinking blizzard warnings might be needed??

[mappy]

weenies