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Nov/Dec 2021 Med/Long Range


nj2va
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5 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

GFS looks like it locks away the cold by the end. Zonal kiss of death for any hopes for cold intrusions. Sad Outlook 

Would rather have that in November than late DEC/early JAN. I will take a front end chance with losing the rest of Nov and early DEC for a flip into late DCE early Jan every time. 

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Guidance past day 10 isn’t useless, at times it can give some hints of how things could evolve, but they have to be looked at differently.  Op runs past day 10 mean absolutely nothing! On ensembles, weak anomalies, ambiguous looks, and daily shifts mean absolutely nothing. Remember they are means of various conflicting runs. So a weak variable signal basically is saying “I have no clue”.  When we start to see consistency across the various ensembles and actions consecutive days, and the signal starts to get stronger as it pushes closer in time, that’s when it’s more believable. 

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14 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Nice looking storm depicted on 6z GFS for next week. Can we get the storm to come together a little more south of us before it explodes offshore?

Need that low to the west to go away or transfer quick. My bet is it trends poorly due to that feature. If it disappears or is not there, maybe something can happen. Looks like a northeastern snow to me and mainly inland if it were to come true 

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