yoda Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 00z EURO would be an Apps runner looking at h5 at 240 and where the SLP is placed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 GFS looks like it locks away the cold by the end. Zonal kiss of death for any hopes for cold intrusions. Sad Outlook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said: GFS looks like it locks away the cold by the end. Zonal kiss of death for any hopes for cold intrusions. Sad Outlook Yea the end of the run is just ugly. Lights out territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea the end of the run is just ugly. Lights out territory. At least the ensembles don’t really support the op at all but yeah it’s ugly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea the end of the run is just ugly. Lights out territory. Gfs changes every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Gfs changes every run 18z agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Y'all still don't know the deal with flip flopping op runs beyond day 8? It is to be expected. Why we have ensembles. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 5 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: GFS looks like it locks away the cold by the end. Zonal kiss of death for any hopes for cold intrusions. Sad Outlook Would rather have that in November than late DEC/early JAN. I will take a front end chance with losing the rest of Nov and early DEC for a flip into late DCE early Jan every time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Y'all still don't know the deal with flip flopping op runs beyond day 8? It is to be expected. Why we have ensembles. I cancelled winter after the 12z GFS op run and the ENSO prediction flipped to moderate-strong Nina. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Ji has you all beat by months on canceling winter 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Pretty decent h5 look on the GEFS heading into December. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Euro ens again trying to pull the trough back in the west and create a real deal winter pattern as we close out Nov. Seems like something shifted overnight with both GEFS (as CAPE posted) and the euro looking better in the LR. Maybe MJO related? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Gfs is going differently today. Colder looks for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Guidance past day 10 isn’t useless, at times it can give some hints of how things could evolve, but they have to be looked at differently. Op runs past day 10 mean absolutely nothing! On ensembles, weak anomalies, ambiguous looks, and daily shifts mean absolutely nothing. Remember they are means of various conflicting runs. So a weak variable signal basically is saying “I have no clue”. When we start to see consistency across the various ensembles and actions consecutive days, and the signal starts to get stronger as it pushes closer in time, that’s when it’s more believable. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Snow showers in the forecast here for this coming Friday, I had to look twice, thought I was in the wrong zone. Friday A chance of snow showers. Sunny, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 30%. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 If your kitchen is hot on Thanksgiving Day you might get relief this year by opening the windows verus needing the AC on. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 WB 12Z EURO says don’t give up on White Thanksgiving yet…. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Interesting potential on a - NAO signal out in time. If it happens then the question is, does it retrograde further WSW in a ideal Davis Straight block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 I couldn’t have said it better myself 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 This Friday night will be the coldest of the season so far. Snow showers for some before 8 or 9 AM. Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 More support growing for a - NAO later this month. Extensive Atlantic wave breaking is forecasted leading up to this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 First flakes of the season! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Nice looking storm depicted on 6z GFS for next week. Can we get the storm to come together a little more south of us before it explodes offshore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 14 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Nice looking storm depicted on 6z GFS for next week. Can we get the storm to come together a little more south of us before it explodes offshore? Need that low to the west to go away or transfer quick. My bet is it trends poorly due to that feature. If it disappears or is not there, maybe something can happen. Looks like a northeastern snow to me and mainly inland if it were to come true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Kind of silly, but we have been running opposite of last year 500mb N. Hemisphere at >75% each month of the last 4(Aug-Nov), continues into Dec1. https://ibb.co/QCfJQ28 https://ibb.co/QnqgC5J Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 If you were to believe the gfs, after this week it may not be warm for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If you were to believe the gfs, after this week it may not be warm for a while. Big -PNA developing around the 1st/2 of December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Not according to the overnight WB EURO ensemble… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Not a valid tool. GFS ensembles and ECMWF. never advanced past that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Big -PNA developing around the 1st/2 of December. Of course there is 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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