mappy Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 31 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Or not .. Hahaha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 WB 12z GEFS….can still dream of a white Thanksgiving… 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 Happy Turkey day! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 Decent signal for something around Turkey Day. Obviously way too far out to consider, but the GEFS has some solid storms, even one or two that miss south. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 20 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Happy Turkey day! I'd take some mood snow on Thanksgiving 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 I’ll predict Thanksgiving… partly cloudy, windy, highs early low 50’s falling to low 40’s by late afternoon. Let’s see how a WAG compares to models 2 weeks out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ll predict Thanksgiving… partly cloudy, windy, highs early low 50’s falling to low 40’s by late afternoon. Let’s see how a WAG compares to models 2 weeks out. I'll go for colder than normal maybe 40s to 30s with a northwest wind and some flurries due to lake effect after a front. Sort of wishcasting though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 WB 12Z EPS, like GEFS, few solid hits and chances also showing up to south…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 I might consider a trip to Canaan for a few inches of snow around T-day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 If you want to get November snow the two most likely ways are a progressive post frontal wave or to get lucky under a CCB death band. Other types of systems are even less likely to work this early. Back in 2018 was one of the only times WAA snow ever worked this early and that took an anomalous cold but more so dry airmass and some crazy fgen and VVs I’ve seen. And even then with so much going right it was still mostly a NW of the fall line event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If you want to get November snow the two most likely ways are a progressive post frontal wave or to get lucky under a CCB death band. Other types of systems are even less likely to work this early. Back in 2018 was one of the only times WAA snow ever worked this early and that took an anomalous cold but more so dry airmass and some crazy fgen and VVs I’ve seen. And even then with so much going right it was still mostly a NW of the fall line event. That event produced here and was actually under-forecasted. Given it was mid-November it made the event more remarkable. I still remember the long traffic delays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 Does anyone have access to the pattern that caused the 1987 Veteran’s Day event? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 23 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Does anyone have access to the pattern that caused the 1987 Veteran’s Day event? Somehow people on here can pull up stuff from memory. Not this guy. PSU just referenced a WAA event in 2018 and I had no memory of it! lol Maybe this is what you are looking for? I use it quite a bit when memory fails...which is often. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 46 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Does anyone have access to the pattern that caused the 1987 Veteran’s Day event? It was a DC Bullseye. Check out Sue Palka in this vid. Crazy she has been doing it that long,. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 51 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: It was a DC Bullseye. Check out Sue Palka in this vid. Crazy she has been doing it that long,. Thanks. I was in that bullseye. Will never forget it….very heavy snow. 20 minute trip from College Park ( my college days) to Greenbelt took 4 hours. Cars abandoned everywhere. No cellphones back then so Mom was worried sick. I should add this was a completely busted forecast. No snow was predicted even the morning before it started!!!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 WB 18Z GEFS Day 9-10 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 I'll be down in Hilton Head for Thanksgiving (per usual) and would be perfectly happy for you all to get cold rain ending as wet snowflakes to set your Thanksgiving moods, as long as I'm enjoying my feast at about 65 and partly cloudy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 50 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'll be down in Hilton Head for Thanksgiving (per usual) and would be perfectly happy for you all to get cold rain ending as wet snowflakes to set your Thanksgiving moods, as long as I'm enjoying my feast at about 65 and partly cloudy. Your version sounds a helluva lot better 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 GFS left nothing for me to be excited about. EURO threw a bone in there, but nothing seems super exciting. Kind of bored. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: GFS left nothing for me to be excited about. EURO threw a bone in there, but nothing seems super exciting. Kind of bored. Don’t fret. If you look at long range models long enough, you’re sure to get boned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Your version sounds a helluva lot better The weather is almost always the same around Thanksgiving down there - 65 or so and partly cloudy - though we've had some pretty nasty days and some really warm ones in the 10 years or so we've ben there for the holiday. It's honestly pretty great. We can open the windows and enjoy the fresh air, let the kids run outside, go fishing, play a round of golf. Then we can come home and be ready for the chill and the Christmas season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 2 hours ago, mattie g said: The weather is almost always the same around Thanksgiving down there - 65 or so and partly cloudy - though we've had some pretty nasty days and some really warm ones in the 10 years or so we've ben there for the holiday. It's honestly pretty great. We can open the windows and enjoy the fresh air, let the kids run outside, go fishing, play a round of golf. Then we can come home and be ready for the chill and the Christmas season! That sounds outstanding. I have been advocating for a beach Thanksgiving for years....but, you know family traditions die hard and I have been voted down each time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 12z gfs is a snow lovers dream lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 25 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: 12z gfs is a snow lovers dream lol Cmc was close for your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 WB 12Z EPS…not a bad look in the end of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Pretty cool loop. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 35 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: 6th deleted post, I posted a model image as my post. Not 1 post allowed in Mid Atlantic forum for 2 weeks now. Dang they don’t even delete mine. Your post must be pretty rough… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pgwxtype Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 On 11/11/2021 at 4:58 PM, Weather Will said: Does anyone have access to the pattern that caused the 1987 Veteran’s Day event? For looking at daily weather maps, I like to look at https://wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dwm/dwm.shtml 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 All of the usual suspects, ~this time creates the long term pattern I think. soon to be decided. https://ibb.co/T4zLFpS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 WB 0Z GFS; 0z EURO has a storm too at end of its run for Thanksgiving week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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