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Nov/Dec 2021 Med/Long Range


nj2va
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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’ll predict Thanksgiving… partly cloudy, windy, highs early low 50’s falling to low 40’s by late afternoon. Let’s see how a WAG compares to models 2 weeks out.

I'll go for colder than normal maybe 40s to 30s with a northwest wind and some flurries due to lake effect after a front. Sort of wishcasting though.

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If you want to get November snow the two most likely ways are a progressive post frontal wave or to get lucky under a CCB death band.  Other types of systems are even less likely to work this early. Back in 2018 was one of the only times WAA snow ever worked this early and that took an anomalous cold but more so dry airmass and some crazy fgen and VVs I’ve seen. And even then with so much going right it was still mostly a NW of the fall line event. 

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20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If you want to get November snow the two most likely ways are a progressive post frontal wave or to get lucky under a CCB death band.  Other types of systems are even less likely to work this early. Back in 2018 was one of the only times WAA snow ever worked this early and that took an anomalous cold but more so dry airmass and some crazy fgen and VVs I’ve seen. And even then with so much going right it was still mostly a NW of the fall line event. 

That event produced here and was actually under-forecasted.  Given it was mid-November it made the event more remarkable. 

I still remember the long traffic delays. 

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23 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Does anyone have access to the pattern that caused the 1987 Veteran’s Day event?  

Somehow people on here can pull up stuff from memory.  Not this guy.  PSU just referenced a WAA event in 2018 and I had no memory of it! lol  

Maybe this is what you are looking for?  I use it quite a bit when memory fails...which is often. 

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/

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51 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

It was a DC Bullseye. Check out Sue Palka in this vid. Crazy she has been doing it that long,. 

 

Thanks.  I was in that bullseye.  Will never forget it….very heavy snow.  20 minute trip from College Park ( my college days) to Greenbelt took 4 hours.  Cars abandoned everywhere.   No cellphones back then so Mom was worried sick.  I should add this was a completely busted forecast.    No snow was predicted even the morning before it started!!!!!

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50 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I'll be down in Hilton Head for Thanksgiving (per usual) and would be perfectly happy for you all to get cold rain ending as wet snowflakes to set your Thanksgiving moods, as long as I'm enjoying my feast at about 65 and partly cloudy.

Your version sounds a helluva lot better

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Your version sounds a helluva lot better

The weather is almost always the same around Thanksgiving down there - 65 or so and partly cloudy - though we've had some pretty nasty days and some really warm ones in the 10 years or so we've ben there for the holiday. It's honestly pretty great. We can open the windows and enjoy the fresh air, let the kids run outside, go fishing, play a round of golf. Then we can come home and be ready for the chill and the Christmas season!

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2 hours ago, mattie g said:

The weather is almost always the same around Thanksgiving down there - 65 or so and partly cloudy - though we've had some pretty nasty days and some really warm ones in the 10 years or so we've ben there for the holiday. It's honestly pretty great. We can open the windows and enjoy the fresh air, let the kids run outside, go fishing, play a round of golf. Then we can come home and be ready for the chill and the Christmas season!

That sounds outstanding.  I have been advocating for a beach Thanksgiving for years....but, you know family traditions die hard and I have been voted down each time.

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