StantonParkHoya Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 It’s honestly amazing to be “tracking” pre-thanksgiving 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said: It’s honestly amazing to be “tracking” pre-thanksgiving This is fantasy tracking 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This is fantasy tracking I don’t think there have been any really extreme digital events this season from what I can remember so far. Maybe that’s a good thing though, as it may show improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 3 hours ago, Rhino16 said: I don’t think there have been any really extreme digital events this season from what I can remember so far. Maybe that’s a good thing though, as it may show improvement. I’m just commenting that “following “ anything beyond 7 days is just not real. Sure, anything can happen, but just like with the last “event”, they are extremely likely to just disappear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 12 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This is fantasy tracking Agreed. Although we usually see our first flakes out here in mid November. Usually from a streamer. And that looks quite possible again this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Oct NAO analogs https://ibb.co/nBkCyPw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Oct NAO analogs https://ibb.co/nBkCyPw What are +NAO, + AO, - PNA? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 I'll take this look in a month or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 ^ As long as that low is in the process of transferring off of the NC coast, then I'd be in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 49 minutes ago, mattie g said: ^ As long as that low is in the process of transferring off of the NC coast, then I'd be in. That one is heading to Sault Ste Marie. The heights here are almost 570. I think sun screen would get more use than a snow shovel lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That one is heading to Sault Ste Marie. The heights here are almost 570. I think sun screen would get more use than a snow shovel lol. Not that it's worth talking about for obvious reasons but I meant the overall pattern. Of course heights are going to be higher in Nov than January or December. I just liked the block on the map. PNA ridge axis still too far west on that map, but it's close to the type of look we'd want come winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 6 hours ago, mattie g said: ^ As long as that low is in the process of transferring off of the NC coast, then I'd be in. Need that one in Wilmington, early transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 End of the 00z GFS was lulz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 7 hours ago, yoda said: End of the 00z GFS was lulz I know even in fantasy land we get screwed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said: I know even in fantasy land we get screwed. Its not even worth real analysis but I’d be very pleased if things progressed that way. A bunch of cutters in mid November slowly establishing lower heights and cold to our northwest which looks poised to press towards late November is ideal. You want a perfect pattern now when it won’t do us any good? Let this thing slowly develop and maybe we get some snow the very end of November and early December when it’s still difficult but at least less crazy stupid unlikely. 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Its not even worth real analysis but I’d be very pleased if things progressed that way. A bunch of cutters in mid November slowly establishing lower heights and cold to our northwest which looks poised to press towards late November is ideal. You want a perfect pattern now when it won’t do us any good? Let this thing slowly develop and maybe we get some snow the very end of November and early December when it’s still difficult but at least less crazy stupid unlikely. Was happy with how the pattern looked too but still found it funny that we would get missed by 50 miles. Though would like to see this pattern set up a week or two later as you said then we could get into December with it and probably get some actual snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said: I know even in fantasy land we get screwed. At least with the clock change this weekend, we can now get screwed by the guidance an hour earlier. 2 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 ALEET ALEET Blue precip pixels on the 12z GFS 7 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 6z GFS has accumulating snow for the Catoctins and even a few inches for Mount PSU on the 15th. Plenty of time for slight adjustments. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 Looks like over next couple of weeks, a clipper type storm follows the passage of a cold front. Is this indicative of a LA Nina pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 7, 2021 Author Share Posted November 7, 2021 3 hours ago, CAPE said: 6z GFS has accumulating snow for the Catoctins and even a few inches for Mount PSU on the 15th. Plenty of time for slight adjustments. Imagine if we had that look a month later? Weather this week looks fantastic btw. Could sneak a few 70s too. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 2 hours ago, nj2va said: Imagine if we had that look a month later? Weather this week looks fantastic btw. Could sneak a few 70s too. That look a month later would end in heartbreak. A NS system coming across at that high a latitude has typical mid Atlantic screw job written all over it. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 This 12z 384hr GFS is showing I think that a -PNA is going to pop up in the 20-25+ day range. https://ibb.co/Q6x4bS5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: This 384hr GFS is showing I think that a -PNA is going to pop up in the 20-25+ day range. https://ibb.co/Q6x4bS5 Keep us posted 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 Yeah, you just keep getting better and better.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 The models coming out a hour earlier is such a great thing. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 Yeah, when this retrogrades you usually have a +EPO take shape https://ibb.co/26Z9GS0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Yeah, when this retrogrades you usually have a +EPO take shape https://ibb.co/26Z9GS0 And ….. a -PNA? Need my daily fix 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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