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Nov/Dec 2021 Med/Long Range


nj2va
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2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yeah I think you can stick a fork in that one

It's hardly going to be a perfect test but the EPS/Euro is almost totally out on the storm existing while the GFS/GEFS is still toying around with the idea -- not necessarily for snow, just for it's literal existence. Curious to see which suite takes the early lead in accuracy. 

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1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's hardly going to be a perfect test but the EPS/Euro is almost totally out on the storm existing while the GFS/GEFS is still toying around with the idea -- not necessarily for snow, just for it's literal existence. Curious to see which suite takes the early lead in accuracy. 

the ICON is insistent that we get some cold rain from the #snoreaster 

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2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's hardly going to be a perfect test but the EPS/Euro is almost totally out on the storm existing while the GFS/GEFS is still toying around with the idea -- not necessarily for snow, just for it's literal existence. Curious to see which suite takes the early lead in accuracy. 

Ironically the euro was way over amplified the last several days. 

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2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's hardly going to be a perfect test but the EPS/Euro is almost totally out on the storm existing while the GFS/GEFS is still toying around with the idea -- not necessarily for snow, just for it's literal existence. Curious to see which suite takes the early lead in accuracy. 

Remember that about three days ago, maybe more, it was the exact reverse.

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Lol, literally said the same at the same time.

Welp, not much to takeaway than I guess. I at least try to learn some early lessons, especially since I think this is our first year with just the updated GFS, but it all blurs together so I might be wrong.

18z GEFS shifted away from the existence of a storm at all Friday-Saturday. The few that do have a little bit of snow for the western parts of the subforum, but largely looking like fat lady sings time. 

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11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Welp, not much to takeaway than I guess. I at least try to learn some early lessons, especially since I think this is our first year with just the updated GFS, but it all blurs together so I might be wrong.

18z GEFS shifted away from the existence of a storm at all Friday-Saturday. The few that do have a little bit of snow for the western parts of the subforum, but largely looking like fat lady sings time. 

The NWP guidance has been really erratic at range (as is expected) and that’s the lesson to remember Imo. Synoptic details typically start to become more clear once inside 150 hours then further inside 100. Outside that details are useless.  

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On 11/1/2021 at 6:53 PM, psuhoffman said:

Ironically the euro was way over amplified the last several days. 

its not ironic...it does this almosts all the time. I had a stalled storm over our area just a few days ago for this weekend lol

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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Mostly interesting in the sense that a lot have "something" come through. This is just one panel, but some of the other ensembles have it +/- a day or so. Mostly rain, of course.

1636848000-CvurGB4YHR0.png

Thanks for the post and like the look of 11. Would be difficult to get a good storm but it’s ten days out so anything can happen

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Long-range, to me, looks less promising for any cold with legs to stand. Cold shot here then there and then a more zonal look to it. I am convinced this will be the plight of the winter with a somewhat promising look on a few model runs, then a revert to what is typical for La Nina.. I mean, this is the typical anyways!

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Getting that uneasy feeling that the trough pulling back off the west coast of NA is a can that gets kicked.  GEFS have been backing off a bit but the euro still likes a massive PNA ridge to develop and the trough in a nice spot to pump that ridge..  Wouldn't be surprising I guess to see the GEFS be correct on this given what all know is most likely this season.  

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