midatlanticweather Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 The Thursday system seems less and less exciting or even possible. Is this short-range stuff by now.. Probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Yeah I think you can stick a fork in that one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Yeah I think you can stick a fork in that one It's hardly going to be a perfect test but the EPS/Euro is almost totally out on the storm existing while the GFS/GEFS is still toying around with the idea -- not necessarily for snow, just for it's literal existence. Curious to see which suite takes the early lead in accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: It's hardly going to be a perfect test but the EPS/Euro is almost totally out on the storm existing while the GFS/GEFS is still toying around with the idea -- not necessarily for snow, just for it's literal existence. Curious to see which suite takes the early lead in accuracy. the ICON is insistent that we get some cold rain from the #snoreaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Not that it means much (yet) but the 18z GFS now has the weekend storm a little closer to the coast. I still think its worth keeping an eye on for the next 24-48 hours before putting it to bed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: It's hardly going to be a perfect test but the EPS/Euro is almost totally out on the storm existing while the GFS/GEFS is still toying around with the idea -- not necessarily for snow, just for it's literal existence. Curious to see which suite takes the early lead in accuracy. Ironically the euro was way over amplified the last several days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: It's hardly going to be a perfect test but the EPS/Euro is almost totally out on the storm existing while the GFS/GEFS is still toying around with the idea -- not necessarily for snow, just for it's literal existence. Curious to see which suite takes the early lead in accuracy. Remember that about three days ago, maybe more, it was the exact reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Ironically the euro was way over amplified the last several days. Lol, literally said the same at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol, literally said the same at the same time. Welp, not much to takeaway than I guess. I at least try to learn some early lessons, especially since I think this is our first year with just the updated GFS, but it all blurs together so I might be wrong. 18z GEFS shifted away from the existence of a storm at all Friday-Saturday. The few that do have a little bit of snow for the western parts of the subforum, but largely looking like fat lady sings time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Welp, not much to takeaway than I guess. I at least try to learn some early lessons, especially since I think this is our first year with just the updated GFS, but it all blurs together so I might be wrong. 18z GEFS shifted away from the existence of a storm at all Friday-Saturday. The few that do have a little bit of snow for the western parts of the subforum, but largely looking like fat lady sings time. The NWP guidance has been really erratic at range (as is expected) and that’s the lesson to remember Imo. Synoptic details typically start to become more clear once inside 150 hours then further inside 100. Outside that details are useless. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 +PNA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 I’ve been busy. How’s this weekends storm looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 End of the month cool down possible after the mid-month warmth. Actually in the end there is some evidence that this November's HDDs may end up closer to normal, however that remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 Recent trends are starting to back up the idea that the PV starts to weaken again by mid to late month along with lessening zonal winds and possibly a change in the NAM state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 Some vaguely interesting GEFS members around Day 10. Ready to track a disappearing storm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 On 11/1/2021 at 6:53 PM, psuhoffman said: Ironically the euro was way over amplified the last several days. its not ironic...it does this almosts all the time. I had a stalled storm over our area just a few days ago for this weekend lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 50 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Some vaguely interesting GEFS members around Day 10. Ready to track a disappearing storm again. Could you post them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Could you post them? Mostly interesting in the sense that a lot have "something" come through. This is just one panel, but some of the other ensembles have it +/- a day or so. Mostly rain, of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Mostly interesting in the sense that a lot have "something" come through. This is just one panel, but some of the other ensembles have it +/- a day or so. Mostly rain, of course. Thanks for the post and like the look of 11. Would be difficult to get a good storm but it’s ten days out so anything can happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 48 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Thanks for the post and like the look of 11. Would be difficult to get a good storm but it’s ten days out so anything can happen At least something to look at, I’ll take 19 for mood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 7 hours ago, Solution Man said: At least something to look at, I’ll take 19 for mood On the GEFS 18z, the whole period from hrs 240-300 have some interesting storms. Looks dynamic, for lack of a better buzzword. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Long-range, to me, looks less promising for any cold with legs to stand. Cold shot here then there and then a more zonal look to it. I am convinced this will be the plight of the winter with a somewhat promising look on a few model runs, then a revert to what is typical for La Nina.. I mean, this is the typical anyways! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Yeah, I mean I don't think we're getting wall-to-wall cold. Gonna need to time moisture with the cold, just like every year. As long as we avoid a relentless WAR or pac firehose, I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Getting that uneasy feeling that the trough pulling back off the west coast of NA is a can that gets kicked. GEFS have been backing off a bit but the euro still likes a massive PNA ridge to develop and the trough in a nice spot to pump that ridge.. Wouldn't be surprising I guess to see the GEFS be correct on this given what all know is most likely this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 One heck of an +AO on 15-day models.. those were my analogs for the Winter, +AO/+EPO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said: One heck of an +AO on 15-day models.. those were my analogs for the Winter, +AO/+EPO Well maybe it will verify. … in a month when winter actually starts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 yup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 I think the only reason 12z GFS ensembles have -WPO/-EPO Nov 13th on, is because of QBO analogs. (to Dec 15th) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Just need it a bit more north, west and amped. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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