midatlanticweather Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 1 hour ago, H2O said: Too soon. We need to have a radio show first No. We need Ji to start a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 November isn’t winter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said: A la the 2017-18 nina...had some nice cold that December (I remember the surprise inch or two one evening, lol) followed by cold and the bomb cyclone miss in early Jan. (SE Maryland is the place to be in a nina, imo) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Hmmm... from this mornings AFD LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Longwave troughing will remain in place across eastern North America through the long term period. Through the course of the week, the core of this trough is expected to slowly drift southward as individual shortwave disturbances rotate through the larger scale trough. This will lead to a gradual cooling trend through the week, with below normal temperatures expected for the middle to latter portions of the week. An initial shortwave will pass to our north on Tuesday into Tuesday night, potentially sparking the development of some showers across the area. Another more prominent shortwave may pass through on either Thursday or Friday. This may lead to slightly greater chances for precipitation. However, spread within both deterministic and ensemble guidance is considerable, with solutions ranging from dry conditions to a major storm with heavy precipitation. With the cooler air moving in, the potential is there for some of the precipitation (if it were to occur) to fall in the form of wintry precipitation across the higher elevations along and west of the Blue Ridge. We`ll continue to monitor trends with the late week system as we move closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Lol 00z Euro smokes i81 corridor into W MD day 6 to 8 with heavy wet snow Everyone else gets cold rain and upper 30s to mid 40s outside S MD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 The upcoming chilly period has been well advertised on guidance for a while now. The pattern, and climo, is favorable for western highland snow, from upslope if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 The 6z GFS is sharper/digs the NS shortwave more as it drops in from north of the Lakes, thus a bit more precip/snow for the mountains this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 WB 6Z GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 WB 0Z EURO control, I will take it…. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 51 minutes ago, CAPE said: The 6z GFS is sharper/digs the NS shortwave more as it drops in from north of the Lakes, thus a bit more precip/snow for the mountains this run. That’s what I felt yesterday … just a little less progressive and there’s gonna be a storm. I think @Amped had a pretty good comparison with Oct 2011. God help us if the rest of the winter compares to that year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 If the snow map shifts a little bit more then I’m looking at just the tip of the snow shaft 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 33 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: 384hr GFS ensembles show some trying to develop -WPO, but I think that is just the -QBO weight of -ENSO years bias(89, 05), Pac NW is cooling, and I think it's a big trend toward -PNA starting in medium/long range models. Started seeing the same yesterday. We will see if that continues. Seems possible in La Nina and the fact it has been a big player this fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Yeah, the whole pattern is starting to look like a west-based -PNA. I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes strong/centralized in the 20-25day range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Lots of uncertainty and volatility with regard to next weekend. Won’t be surprised if some models spit out a real storm over the next couple of days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Difference at 6 days between 12Z EPS and 12Z GEFS at 6 days pretty amazing…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 Chuck, what's your thoughts and answer on the Winter of 1950-51 ? Neg. PDO + La nina. I know a different Climate Era but, worth a discussion. Hlb clearly altered the typical La nina -PDO outcome as it did in mid 60's and 95-96 and 2010-11. I've not checked QBO Status from that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 32 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Difference at 6 days between 12Z EPS and 12Z GEFS at 6 days pretty amazing…. the GEFS still have the tendency to follow the OP very very closely. It's not necessarily a problem of course when it's right, but slightly annoying given it can't be showing the full range of outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said: Chuck, what's your thoughts and answer on the Winter of 1950-51 ? Neg. PDO + La nina. I know a different Climate Era but, worth a discussion. Hlb clearly altered the typical La nina -PDO outcome as it did in mid 60's and 95-96 and 2010-11. I've not checked QBO Status from that year. I was thinking of this today, 48-57 had a lot of Neg -PNA at the same time in AMO cycle. It could be good, it seems we were coming out of La Nina to more +ENSO phase at that time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 3 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: I was thinking of this today, 48-57 had a lot of Neg -PNA at the same time in AMO cycle. It could be good, it seems we were coming out of La Nina to more +ENSO phase at that time. Yeah. It is rather interesting to study that period and see what we can deduce on the difference in outcome in comparison to this era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 We went +ENSO in 79-80, for 3 years, then 90-91 for 7 years. 01-02 we kind of went +ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 The Icon is quit the pummeling ....... of rain for next Friday / Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Shocker that the snow chances have evaporated with the most recent runs but western suburbs freezing or below on GFS GDPS, and 12K NAM mid to late week. Drained my hose bibs today… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Euro completely folded to the gfs in regards to next weekends big east coast rainer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 4 hours ago, Chris78 said: Euro completely folded to the gfs in regards to next weekends big east coast rainer. Gfs is way more amplified at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 6Z GFS with a SW VA Jackpot! You really think the snow will not cross into NC? LOL! (NC - NO SNOW FOR YOU!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 9 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: 6Z GFS with a SW VA Jackpot! You really think the snow will not cross into NC? LOL! (NC - NO SNOW FOR YOU!) We need it just a bit more amplified and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Looks like a possible relaxation of the PAC jet as we near mid month on the ens. I guess time will tell if this actually holds as we get closer. There is certainly a tendency for HLB of some sort and combined with a favorable PAC could lead to a window of opportunity as we close out Nov. Obviously, a front loaded winter has been touted. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Long range MJO forecast for November isnt really great. Very little amplification. Solidly in COD by November 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: Long range MJO forecast for November isnt really great. Very little amplification. Solidly in COD by November 15th. That’s probably better than high amp bad phase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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