Nov/Dec 2021 Med/Long Range

[blueberryfaygo]

A lot of signs pointing toward the Nov 7-10 period for our first flakes.  Maybe even a measurable snowfall north and west of the cities.  

[Maestrobjwa]

20 hours ago, frd said:

Nina's can be front loaded. Pac jet retraction combined with weaker early season PV together give some  credence to the weeklies portrayal. 

Very true.

[Cobalt]

One thing to look out for in terms of seasonal trends for the future, the Canadian/Euro are persistent with having the upcoming troughing/cold get caught in the central US before reluctantly scooting east, delaying the cold wave. This allows for a bit of temporary ridging, or at least seasonal/slightly AN temps to persist longer in the East. The GFS doesn't do this, and in fact the GEFS has trended colder for the East within D8/9.

[frd]

11 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

One thing to look out for in terms of seasonal trends for the future, the Canadian/Euro are persistent with having the upcoming troughing/cold get caught in the central US before reluctantly scooting east, delaying the cold wave. This allows for a bit of temporary ridging, or at least seasonal/slightly AN temps to persist longer in the East. The GFS doesn't do this, and in fact the GEFS has trended colder for the East within D8/9.

Overnight Euro trended much colder in the center of the US in the medium range .  This looks to move East in time.  Growing season will end for many areas out West who have not experienced a freeze yet.  

[frd]

As a continuation from above it would be beneficial to mention a recent  post from bluewave.  Here the focus are the warm SSTs and the impact they have on the WAR.  It is well known that in recent Falls along the East Coast  above average Atlantic SSTs have contributed to warmer than normal weather lasting well into October, if not later. 

Keep in mind that cold fronts may have a difficult time initially moving East with the coldest anomalies to the coastal plain. 

from bluewave:

It looks like the models are continuing to struggle with the influence of the record SSTs to our east. So the WAR puts up more resistance to the cold front to our west. This has been a common theme in recent years.

New run

Old run

 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 hours ago, frd said:

As a continuation from above it would be beneficial to mention a recent  post from bluewave.  Here the focus are the warm SSTs and the impact they have on the WAR.  It is well known that in recent Falls along the East Coast  above average Atlantic SSTs have contributed to warmer than normal weather lasting well into October, if not later. 

Keep in mind that cold fronts may have a difficult time initially moving East with the coldest anomalies to the coastal plain. 

from bluewave:

It looks like the models are continuing to struggle with the influence of the record SSTs to our east. So the WAR puts up more resistance to the cold front to our west. This has been a common theme in recent years.

New run

Old run

 

 

No disrespect to you or him, but cold fronts being modeled to fast, too south, and too far east at long range is a common model bias and has been for a very long time.

[frd]

7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

No disrespect to you or him, but cold fronts being modeled to fast, too south, and too far east at long range is a common model bias and has been for a very long time.

The focus of that post are the warm SSTs.  So you think October and September have been below average ? 

You are saying the last few years Fall has made an early arrival to the Coastal Plain?

Forget about the cold front aspect. Focus on the general warmth around the periphery of the robust WAR supported by above avergae Western Atlantic SSTs.  There are many reporting stations along the East Coast that have recently recorded record highs, as well as record high minimum temps, the last few years in September and October due to this effect.  

[RIC_WX]

No one is really talking about how warm the great lakes are, basically everywhere, and when the pattern eventually does flip the LES potential could be epic.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, frd said:

The focus of that post are the warm SSTs.  So you think October and September have been below average ? 

You are saying the last few years Fall has made an early arrival to the Coastal Plain?

 

No and no. But I’ll tell you what. Since I didn’t reply to your post with sarcasm, but yet you replied to mine with sarcasm, I’ll take the hint and try not to trigger that in you again. That will be easy for me. You are now free to continue on unimpeded.

[WxUSAF]

GFS, GEFS, GGEM, GEPS, and Euro all with a big cold push for the east-central CONUS mid-late next week. First freeze looks possible, if not likely quite yet, for most.

[yoda]

13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS, GEFS, GGEM, GEPS, and Euro all with a big cold push for the east-central CONUS mid-late next week. First freeze looks possible, if not likely quite yet, for most.

Finally 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS, interesting weak signal for something inside 10 days.

[SnowenOutThere]

13 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS, interesting weak signal for something inside 10 days.

9/30 have some snowfall in the DC suburbs. Or a 30 percent chance. 

[NorthArlington101]

Decent odds of it being cold enough for snow in the western reaches of the area. As I said a couple days ago, think the period is worth a legitimate watch, if only to get the tracking training wheels on.

Looking at the successful GEFS and few EPS (sorta including the control on the 9th) it's clear we are rooting for a wacky coastal solution. Tough to get but fun to track. 

[NorthArlington101]

00z GFS with an interesting solution again. Remains trackable.

[nj2va]

7 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

00z GFS with an interesting solution again. Remains trackable.

 

First legit threat for the mountains next weekend.  Even if its rain from the main low, there's support for upslope snow as winds shift from the NW.  6z GFS showed this evolution.  We're heading to Deep Creek next Thursday night so hopefully there's some flakes.

[WinterWxLuvr]

When is our next stretch of 70’s?

NM, it will be the week of Christmas. My bad

[WinterWxLuvr]

Was just looking at the h5 maps from the gfs for next Friday evening. Lol. The gfs is literally all over the place. Look at its solution from 18z yesterday and backwards, and then compare it to the runs since. Looks like model runs from two different years. 
 

If you’re gonna use the gfs for forecasting at days 7-10, good luck.

[midatlanticweather]

29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Was just looking at the h5 maps from the gfs for next Friday evening. Lol. The gfs is literally all over the place. Look at its solution from 18z yesterday and backwards, and then compare it to the runs since. Looks like model runs from two different years. 
 

If you’re gonna use the gfs for forecasting at days 7-10, good luck.

Yep. Get to day 6+ and you can pretty much call it speculation! The long range looks nice and super cold on the GFS.. but do you trust it? Well do ya?

 

NOPE!

 

[Amped]

CMC and ICON have rain,  however it's a nice setup on both of them similar to October 2011.

[WinterWxLuvr]

40 minutes ago, Amped said:

CMC and ICON have rain,  however it's a nice setup on both of them similar to October 2011.

It’s there on the gfs as well just not as defined. The flow is a bit progressive. If it buckles a bit that could be a more significant storm.

[WinterWxLuvr]

It’s on the euro also

[NorthArlington101]

22 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s on the euro also

So close. Too bad the surface is on fire (like 35-37)

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

So close. Too bad the surface is on fire (like 35-37)

Montgomery County Jack pot 

[mappy]

14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

So close. Too bad the surface is on fire (like 35-37)

surely good rates could put down snow at 35

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, mappy said:

surely good rates could put down snow at 35

Yeah, I assume that is what it's trying to get at with the real splotchy appearance on the p-type depiction. Verbatim, the snow map gives virtually everyone a T-inch.

[NorthArlington101]

Didn't realize the GGEM showed a real storm. Huh. Starts snowing in CHO 6 days out on this run.

[nj2va]

Can we pin this mods?  

[H2O]

Too soon. We need to have a radio show first

[H2O]

Oh you meant so it’s at the top of the list with banter and obs