WxUSAF Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 37 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Well, if the eps is correct towards the end of the run (big if) this may be a fun ride after turkey day! Cross polar flow, with still a nice GL blocking signal. Hot damn. Flipped the EPO from the last one I saw. I’d still not mind if that look is can-kicked for a week or so 10 days. Later in December for that type of look never would hurt. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Guess we are going to ignore how the Euro sucks for tropical and say it’s the better winter model? 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 43 minutes ago, H2O said: Guess we are going to ignore how the Euro sucks for tropical and say it’s the better winter model? Whoa whoa whoa. Let’s remember who nailed Sandy though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Dec 5th.. I'm worried that the PNA will pop negative real fast, but even so there should be enough cold air to get snow as the +360dm+ block lifts out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 Thanksgiving torch? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 18 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: Thanksgiving torch? No 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 Go on 00z EURO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 00z CMC has something similar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 I will take the WB OZ EURO control… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 Tuesday morning snippet for extended forecast: EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FROM SUNDAY ONWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONE OR MORE SURFACE LOWS/FRONTAL SYSTEMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO RESOLVE DETAILED EFFECTS FROM LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY BE NEAR THE EAST COAST BY NEXT TUESDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME THE RELATIVELY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR MEANINGFUL SNOW EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND COLD AIR MAY PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT AS WELL. EASTERLY FLOW FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAY PROMOTE PERIODS OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME HIGHS 10F OR MORE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF CHILLY AIR WILL LIKELY BRING HIGHS OVER THE EAST BACK DOWN TO 5-15F BELOW NORMAL NEXT MONDAY-TUESDAY. ANOMALIES COULD TREND COLDER DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE DEPTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 Hot damn. Flipped the EPO from the last one I saw. I’d still not mind if that look is can-kicked for a week or so 10 days. Later in December for that type of look never would hurt.32.2 and rain incoming 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 Off the NWS site, still learning how to read this, but looks like MJO will be moving into more favorable phases… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 4 hours ago, yoda said: quite the block and the tilt of the trough is interesting. block in a good position for even up here. no strong 50-50 to supress, but does that NE trough slip over the Lab and then the deep trough in Mexico spits something out and the Artic sw phases in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 4 hours ago, Weather Will said: I will take the WB OZ EURO control… shades of 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 4 hours ago, Ji said: 19 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Hot damn. Flipped the EPO from the last one I saw. I’d still not mind if that look is can-kicked for a week or so 10 days. Later in December for that type of look never would hurt. 32.2 and rain incoming Start a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: Off the NWS site, still learning how to read this, but looks like MJO will be moving into more favorable phases… That’s pretty much all COD. No phase amplitude there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: Off the NWS site, still learning how to read this, but looks like MJO will be moving into more favorable phases… Those RMM plots are terrible. They have a weak mjo and COD which is flat out wrong. There is good convection in the maritimes. Can see the base state we are in right now is in phase 5ish, around 120e 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 Hey GFS…you are about a month to early for this…thanks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, LP08 said: Hey GFS…you are about a month to early for this…thanks. Even then it would only be a front end thump before it switches to rain with the low going west of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 26 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Even then it would only be a front end thump before it switches to rain with the low going west of the mountains. I'll always take that look at 500 and worry about the details later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 33 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Even then it would only be a front end thump before it switches to rain with the low going west of the mountains. Details be damned, that's a good look at 500. Ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Details be damned, that's a good look at 500. Ninja'd a good look but we would need luck for it to give us anything good which tends to not be in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 The 12z Ukie showing a large area of -30-45 degree departures in south central Canada at 144 including a couple -30 F readings. Pretty chilly for November... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 31 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: a good look but we would need luck for it to give us anything good which tends to not be in our favor. One problem that I can see is that there's a shortwave diving down into the upper Midwest that helps to tug the low up and into the block. I'd also prefer the low heights in Quebec to be father east, but as far as I can tell it's not far from being damn good. I don't know how that would actually play out, but that is a beast of a block and those lower heights in Quebec are on their way to the east. Timing always matters, but I'd take that and see how things shake out as we got closer in time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 WB 12Z EURO. No snow Tuesday but cold wind chills! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 Setup for post-Thanksgiving definitely is nice in broad terms with wavebreaking driving the big -NAO and a quasi 50-50 low. Then a strong southern stream s/w. But it’s November…and because of that, we might have a better chance of flakes next Tuesday/Wednesday with cold NW flow. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 Looks like death to me. Not expecting much this year or next year going forward. If you cannot win with that -NAO block it's time to pack it up gentlemen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Vice-Regent said: Looks like death to me. Not expecting much this year or next year going forward. If you cannot win with that -NAO block it's time to pack it up gentlemen. It's still over 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 21 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Looks like death to me. Not expecting much this year or next year going forward. If you cannot win with that -NAO block it's time to pack it up gentlemen. Maybe in mid January peak climo you could say that, but Nov 25-28? Nah . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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