nj2va Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 Might as well start a thread to track the extended range as we head into the latter part of September. First freeze for the mountains (technically Canaan already hit it) should be coming into guidance soon. Meanwhile, DCA won't hit freezing until January probably. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 25 minutes ago, nj2va said: Might as well start a thread to track the extended range as we head into the latter part of September. First freeze for the mountains (technically Canaan already hit it) should be coming into guidance soon. Meanwhile, DCA won't hit freezing until January probably. Nah I'm gonna bet the corridors probably hits it in December...ninas do tend to be colder on the front end, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 0z EPS was yucky. 594 DM heights over the region days 7-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 4 hours ago, yoda said: 0z EPS was yucky. 594 DM heights over the region days 7-10 Any pattern change away from an EC ridge looks after D10. GEFS starts shifting the ridge west with some higher heights up top by D11-12, but that’s way out there. Going to be a lot of days with 80F+ highs this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 We actually have >+0.0 waters in the central subsurface ENSO zone, which is the most favored area 0.90_0.75, this could lead us to some mean EC troughing in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 15, 2021 Author Share Posted September 15, 2021 Early preview of the winter’s LR: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 8 hours ago, nj2va said: Early preview of the winter’s LR: Everything in it's right place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 9 hours ago, nj2va said: Early preview of the winter’s LR: Maybe not the entire winter, but definitely Christmas week. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 10 hours ago, nj2va said: Early preview of the winter’s LR: Just flip the blues to reds and vice versa and we're all good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 00z EURO says maybe some real fall weather by Day 10... below 0C 850s in the N Plains as a nice trough comes in 06z GFS says lulz nice try for any real fall weather till the very end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 15 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z EURO says maybe some real fall weather by Day 10... below 0C 850s in the N Plains as a nice trough comes in 06z GFS says lulz nice try for any real fall weather till the very end of the run We are probably looking at another 3 to 4 weeks of this pattern. The good news is as we head towards October above average means low 80s not 90+ anymore.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 23 minutes ago, Chris78 said: We are probably looking at another 3 to 4 weeks of this pattern. The good news is as we head towards October above average means low 80s not 90+ anymore.. Perfectly setting up our recent trend of torchy Septembers and Octobers, chilly Novembers, and shorts weather for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 Northern Europe really warms up. 2 years ago, we hit 80* on the border of AK/Arctic Circle in late September, to cap off the Summer, so I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't some of that energy lingering. Maybe even into October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Perfectly setting up our recent trend of torchy Septembers and Octobers, chilly Novembers, and shorts weather for December. But wait...didn't last year kinda reverse that? Remember how November torched? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: But wait...didn't last year kinda reverse that? Remember how November torched? Lol yes, last year broke the trend we had going for 3 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Perfectly setting up our recent trend of torchy Septembers and Octobers, chilly Novembers, and shorts weather for December. If we can pull off a torch for September, October AND November you know what that means...December to Remember. It's all starting to fall in place... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 October NAO is opposite of the Winter 60% of the time. Only of the 12 months with a negative correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: October NAO is opposite of the Winter 60% of the time. Only of the 12 months with a negative correlation. Even that correlation, by your numbers, is wrong 40% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 7 hours ago, IronTy said: If we can pull off a torch for September, October AND November you know what that means...December to Remember. It's all starting to fall in place... Sept 1983 had some big heat. 83-84 winter was decent. I'd take it again. BUT! there was some bitter cold too that I could do without. Anyone remember the days with carbureted cars (and manual choke!) you'd have put "dry gas" or "heet" in the tank or risk dreaded gas line freeze, the Watusi jack rabbit start and surging that makes you look like you're just learning to drive stick! That combined on hilly roads full of patchy ice certainly made things interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 WB 18Z GFS. First digital snow of the season just to our north…will have to dust off the prob maps. 2 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS. First digital snow of the season just to our north…will have to dust off the prob maps. It begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS. First digital snow of the season just to our north…will have to dust off the prob maps. Also it falls on the run at the evening not even early morning which makes it even more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 Itshappening.gif 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 Cold and dry. Figures 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 12 hours ago, Stormfly said: Sept 1983 had some big heat. 83-84 winter was decent. I'd take it again. BUT! there was some bitter cold too that I could do without. Anyone remember the days with carbureted cars (and manual choke!) you'd have put "dry gas" or "heet" in the tank or risk dreaded gas line freeze, the Watusi jack rabbit start and surging that makes you look like you're just learning to drive stick! That combined on hilly roads full of patchy ice certainly made things interesting. Coldest Christmas Day on record in Balto. Zero for the min and 12f for the lomax. Reloaded a month later and IAD recorded lowest temp ever at -18f on 1/22/84 . I believe we had -12f in HoCo, but I'm going by memory, I've lost the written record from those days (I think). ETA: OK, now that you've made me dust off the record book (Balto)....I see that hot Sept 1983 set 5 record high max days: the 6, 10, 11, 19, and 20th. The 11th was hottest at 100f. No other year set so many record temps in the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 12 hours ago, Stormfly said: Sept 1983 had some big heat. 83-84 winter was decent. I'd take it again. BUT! there was some bitter cold too that I could do without. Anyone remember the days with carbureted cars (and manual choke!) you'd have put "dry gas" or "heet" in the tank or risk dreaded gas line freeze, the Watusi jack rabbit start and surging that makes you look like you're just learning to drive stick! That combined on hilly roads full of patchy ice certainly made things interesting. Well now with the progged cold snap into early October you can stick a fork in winter. It's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Itshappening.gif If this is a precursor to October, then I will forgive September. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 12Z GFS is bizarre in the long range! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 16, 2021 Share Posted September 16, 2021 time to take a mountain drive 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 16, 2021 Author Share Posted September 16, 2021 25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: time to take a mountain drive Upslope FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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