Tropical Storm Peter

[WxWatcher007]

We've been tracking this one for days now and the NHC has designated it an invest as it rolls off the African coast. This one could be a long tracker, but there's a split on guidance (as expected) with its long term future. The environment looks favorable in the short to medium term for development and intensification, but it is unclear what will happen if it interacts with a TUTT as it gets closer to the Antilles. 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Nicholas, located over the western Gulf of Mexico. 

1. A tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa near 
the coasts of Guinea and Sierra Leone.  Environmental conditions 
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this
disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late 
this week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across 
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Current GFS shows it moving gradually west along 12N to 50W as a weak TD at most, then slowly intensifying as it curves NNW past all of the Caribbean islands heading towards Bermuda where it might be a cat-1 hurricane in about ten or eleven days, then a landfall over western Newfoundland near day 12-13. It might be the 16th named storm because the invest east of Florida seems to acquire TD to weak TS intensity off the Carolinas towards Nova Scotia within 3-5 days, no landfall predicted at this point with that one (which might get the 15th name, Omar possibly? ). 

This GFS scenario could easily change to something more impactful further west though. 

[cptcatz]

I think the worst case scenario would be for it to stay weak through the Atlantic which means it treks due west and then gets to the Bahamas/Florida Straits area where it then rapidly intensifies.  Something along the lines of Dorian, Andrew, or 1935 Labor Day...

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Nah, EC trough will pull it out to sea. 

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Nah, EC trough will pull it out to sea. 

We don't know that yet 

[cptcatz]

GEFS now showing a lot of members bringing into the Caribbean or just north of the islands. WAY too early to call this a fish storm. 

[Windspeed]

Way too much uncertainty. The models are iffy on how the pattern amplifies down stream with respect to 96L. When that system lifts out, the remaining upper PV could easily get squashed depending on timing and intensity of 95L leaving it behind with an ECONUS ridge to build heights over the WATL. I do not think we'll have a good idea of potential long-term track until we get into the midrange here. The resulting TC from 95L could be anywhere from Bermuda to Jamaica. It's really just a guessing game at this point.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, cptcatz said:

I think the worst case scenario would be for it to stay weak through the Atlantic which means it treks due west and then gets to the Bahamas/Florida Straits area where it then rapidly intensifies.  Something along the lines of Dorian, Andrew, or 1935 Labor Day...

 

Agreed.

[jconsor]

 

 

[MJO812]

[WxWatcher007]

This is probably the best 95L has looked since coming off Africa. Nice curved bands of convection forming on the western side and near the center.

[tiger_deF]

95L ~4 hours ago vs 95L now

[WxWatcher007]

It has gradually improved in organization today but it has looked even better the last few hours. This looks like a TC to me.

Would be great to see an ASCAT scan. 

[Floydbuster]

Models seem convinced this thing will turn.

[WxWatcher007]

I get it…but look at Odette  

 

 

[olafminesaw]

95L is trying to be the longest surviving cherry ever

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Pretty sure I see clear low cloud movement from W to E, if Odette is a tropical cyclone with multiple exposed LLCs...

[Normandy]

The most certainly will get upgraded during the next NHC pakcage

[jconsor]

 

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah, I thought this was a TC late last night, and I think both this and 97L look like TCs given the data today. 

[WxWatcher007]

Well we now have Peter, and recon found the center 100 nautical miles wsw of their estimated position. Not sure if that makes much of a difference in track at the end of the day, but more EPS members take the eventual track closer to Bermuda. Long range outlook seems to still be a bit in flux.

Tropical Storm Peter Special Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162021
900 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021

Satellite imagery as well as data from a Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the center of Peter is over 100 n mi
west-southwest of its forecast position. Therefore, a special
advisory for track is being issued. The forecast track has been
adjusted through the first 60 h, resulting in a slight southward
adjustment of the track through the first couple of days. The
aircraft also measured 925 mb flight-level winds of 56 kt, which
supports an initial intensity of 40 kt. No adjustments were made
to the intensity forecast. The next full advisory will be issued at
1500 UTC.

Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical
storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward
Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico.  However, interests there
should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is
possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the
north of the area.

Key Messages:

1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter
may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding from late
Sunday into Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the
Northern Leeward Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1300Z 17.6N  56.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 18.2N  57.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 19.3N  58.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 20.2N  61.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 21.3N  63.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  21/1800Z 22.6N  65.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 24.3N  65.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  23/0600Z 25.8N  65.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  24/0600Z 27.7N  65.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

 

[ldub23]

Shouldnt  have been named.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I can see the 'shouldn't have been named' argument for Odette, but based on late visible yesterday, it was a TC.  That it is sheared and exposed now doesn't change how it looked when NHC started advisories last night.

[madwx]

new convection firing over the center.  Definitely qualifies as a TC

[TheDreamTraveler]

5 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Shouldnt  have been named.

It's like I'm reading JB's twitter account right here

[Prospero]

It is certainly not the worst looking storm we've seen this year.

[Normandy]

If this shouldn't be named then what should be named?  Does it need to have an eye or something?  This complaining about naming of systems is getting ridiculous

[jconsor]

 

[A-L-E-K]

naked swirl

[ineedsnow]

4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

naked swirl

look at the intense convection about to wrap in.. thats a big change from a few hours ago