Amped Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 1 hour ago, GaWx said: IF the 18Z Euro were to closely verify, Houston would have a huge flooding problem: this shows 12-20"+ amounts right in the city with most of this within just a 48 hour period and it still raining due to a near stalled Nicholas: Am not liking this storm at all. At least Harvey was a nice looking CAT4 when it hit the coast. This will be an ugly mess and cause major flooding problems. Also a lot of that precip falls in 18-24hrs over the Houston area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 On radar, a little core looks like it could be coming together. Also, underneath deep convection. Do not give up on this one in the wind department. That’s a tight circulation and shear vector is not as detrimental as it could be and may also add to some ventilation as seen from the growing moisture stream north of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 13, 2021 Author Share Posted September 13, 2021 Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Nicholas is not yet a well-organized tropical cyclone, with little evidence of convective banding features on satellite imagery. Observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the center is still not very well-defined, and appears to have reformed again, this time farther south. Data from the aircraft indicate that the central pressure has not changed much since earlier today, and the maximum winds remain near 35 kt. This is above the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Nicholas will be traversing very warm waters during the next day or so, and within a moist, unstable atmosphere. These factors would favor strengthening. However, moderate southwesterly shear associated with an upper-level trough over northern Mexico could be an inhibiting factor for strengthening. In spite of the shear, the GFS model forecasts the system to strengthen while it nears the Texas coast. The official intensity forecast is at the upper end of the current model guidance. Given the uncertainties in the future strength of Nicholas, a Hurricane Watch is in effect for a portion of the Texas coast. The current location of Nicholas is quite uncertain since the aircraft-reported center position is within a broad area of light winds and is well south of most of the deep convection. Although the fixes show little motion this evening, based on the model predictions, it appears likely that the center will shift or re-form significantly northward as early as Monday morning. This is at least partially accounted for in the latest NHC track forecast, but some northward adjustments are possible over night. The storm is expected to move toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge during the next 36 hours or so. The track guidance and the model consensus has shifted eastward somewhat since the earlier advisory package. This has necessitated an eastward shift in the official track, and a northeastward extension of the watches and warnings. Key Messages: 1. Periods of heavy rainfall are expected to impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Isolated minor to moderate river flooding is also expected. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a strong tropical storm late Monday and early Tuesday, and could be near hurricane intensity if it moves to the right of the forecast track and remains over water longer. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning Monday afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to Freeport late Monday and Monday night. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas beginning Monday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 22.5N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 24.7N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 27.0N 96.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 28.6N 96.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 15/0000Z 29.9N 95.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 15/1200Z 30.4N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/0000Z 31.0N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/0000Z 31.7N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 I'm gonna say this tries to crank to a cane right at the coast. It may not make it but I think it'll try. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 47 minutes ago, Amped said: Am not liking this storm at all. At least Harvey was a nice looking CAT4 when it hit the coast. This will be an ugly mess and cause major flooding problems. Also a lot of that precip falls in 18-24hrs over the Houston area. Just noticed the Euro and UKMET are way slower than every other model to move the storm through Houston. GFS CMC NAVGEM and ICON have the storm at the LA border at 72hrs. EURO/UKMET have it stalled over San Antonio. Assuming the more progressive solutions verify, the rainfall duration for Houston will be much shorter. Maybe just a 6-10 hr deluge which can easily drop 10" of rain. The 40" totals won't stand much of a chance though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 13, 2021 Author Share Posted September 13, 2021 29 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I'm gonna say this tries to crank to a cane right at the coast. It may not make it but I think it'll try. Agree. If the center is really reforming north along the edge of that convection as recon seems to be finding, that could help spur a period of more consistent organization. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 13, 2021 Author Share Posted September 13, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 Clear NNE trend on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 2 hours ago, MattPetrulli said: I thought so earlier today, but recon and satellite show a rather very disorganized system and most intensity guidance has stayed in TS territory this evening. Could make it to a hurricane maybe, but I think it's rather unlikely at this time. Small size could help it spin up and intensify quickly, but it only has about 24-36 more hours over water at most so we'll see. Yeahhhhh may have to eat those words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx_2001 Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 Eye drop supports 1000mb. That's a 9mb drop since the last eye drop 2 hours ago. Yeah let's hope that doesn't continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 Watching closely for any convective burst occurring on the western flank of the circulation. Radar suggests that the storm while deepening is still limited with respect to western Inflow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 It’s trying to form a core on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 Still 60mph and 1001mb at 5am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 Just now, yoda said: Still 60mph and 1001mb at 5am Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 ...NICHOLAS FORECAST TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND GUSTY WINDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 96.6W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas * Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas to Freeport Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas * Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas * San Luis Pass Texas to Rutherford Beach Louisiana, including Galveston Bay * Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of High Island Texas to Sabine Pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Radar data from Brownsville shows that the center of Nicholas is on the southwestern side of a large area of deep convection over the western Gulf of Mexico. While southwesterly shear continues to affect the storm, the radar presentation has recently improved, with what could be the start of a partial eyewall forming in the northern quadrant. The initial wind speed remains 50 kt based on earlier aircraft flight-level winds of 59 kt, believable SFMR values up to 50 kt, along with radar winds at 5000 ft near 60 kt. The storm is moving north-northwestward at about 12 kt. Nicholas is forecast to turn northward soon into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The track prediction is only nudged slightly westward from the previous one through landfall, consistent with recent model guidance. Thereafter, there isn't good agreement among the models on how quickly the tropical cyclone will move northeastward out of Texas. Generally the models are faster this cycle, which seems believable given the large northward re-formation earlier likely exposing Nicholas to stronger mid-latitude flow. Thus the new NHC forecast is trended faster as well, but remains behind the model consensus. Obviously the forward speed is important to the heavy rainfall forecast, and this trend will be one to watch. Nicholas should continue to strengthen up until landfall due primarily to the very warm Gulf waters and the recent inner-core improvements. Moderate southwesterly shear and some dry air are the main inhibiting factors and will hopefully keep the strengthening in check. However, it is possible that Nicholas could become a hurricane before landfall, and that's the reason for the hurricane watch area. Nicholas should weaken after landfall, diminish into a tropical depression within a couple of days, and degenerate into a remnant low in about 3 days. No significant changes were made to the previous NHC wind speed prediction. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Isolated minor to moderate river flooding is also expected. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a strong tropical storm today, and could be near hurricane intensity at landfall. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning by this afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to Freeport this afternoon and tonight. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas beginning during the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 25.5N 96.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 27.3N 96.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 29.2N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/1800Z 30.6N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 15/0600Z 31.5N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 15/1800Z 32.1N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/0600Z 32.5N 91.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 Looks impressive on radar imagery. However, seems to have taken a NW jog. Time over water may be extremely limited now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 Definitely developing a inner core. Hopefully land interaction will prevent it from taking off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 41 minutes ago, weatherCCB said: Definitely developing a inner core. Hopefully land interaction will prevent it from taking off. Seems to have jogged East in the past hour or so, which gives it more time to strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 About Nicholas's wobbling... it is likely temporary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 13, 2021 Author Share Posted September 13, 2021 The IR appearance looks impressive, but there's till a bit of disorganization near the surface. The current center is still on the edge of the deeper convection, and on radar you can clearly see a well defined area of spin within the deepest convection to the NE. Could be temporary, but worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 Convection that had temporarily tried to become a formative core looks like it was sheared away from lllc, which may actually be reforming to the East. There’s clearly a strong MLC well to the northeast of the LLC, and this is becoming even more apparent on radar. May have to watch here for another center reformation. Pretty awesome process to watch on radar as the convection quite literally seems to be trying to drag the llc with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 Convection that had temporarily tried to become a formative core looks like it was sheared away from lllc, which may actually be reforming to the East. There’s clearly a strong MLC well to the northeast of the LLC, and this is becoming even more apparent on radar. May have to watch here for another center reformation. Pretty awesome process to watch on radar as the convection quite literally seems to be trying to drag the llc with itAbout as clear a reformation as you're ever going to see and neat to have it visualized on quality radar. Interestingly, though shear is negative on the vortex due to tilt, in this case it will have bought Nicholas more time over water since the LLC that formed last night was very near to landfall. The new LLC forming under or closer to the MLC is going to be further NE. Still a sheared system though. The anticyclone is too far south of Nicholas. Whether a strong TS or minimal hurricane, this is still all about the heavy rain and flooding potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 It's really fascinating to be able to watch on radar. This center seems a lot more stable and stacked, but it's not got enough time to digest that dry air, I wouldn't think, as its running out of water. Edit: and as I say that, that central center is collapsing and its trying again out west. Wobbler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 On Brownsville radar you can see a llc moving N.E. Just my observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 Good luck with the forecast on this one. This is something we usually don’t see on radar and is usually reserved for formative storms. There are 3 possible centers atm and I have no clue which one will take over. Assuming one does, I believe this storm will make a run at a hurricane before landfall given the eastward shifts, but good luck predicting that given current look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 What I *think* is going on here is there are two week sub vortices rotating around a larger vorticity maximum between them. I think the coc can likely be determined by the midpoint between these small circulation centers. Likely, this will consolidate into a larger single circulation as the smaller vortices will have a difficult time sustaining themselves within the larger circulation 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STxVortex Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 Nicholas looks to be probably making landfall around Port Aransas, Rockport to Mustang, Matagorda Islands, Port O'Connor, Palacios or maybe a smidge to the east. I'll figure it'll be a hurricane by then, the GOM water temperatures and heat index is just too hot. I cleared out after securing the boat as best as I could over the weekend [~Lat: 28.08°NLon: 97.05°W , Current conditions at Rockport Aransas County Airport (KRKP) ]. It ain't gonna be a 'nuther Harvey but this stuff gets old. I've amped up the WX monitoring now that I'm 'home', so FYI, some useful links : Radar : BRO radar CRP radar EWX [San Antonio] radar Brownsville WFO Corpus Christi WFO EWX San Antonio WFO Houston WFO Current conditions at Port Isabel, Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport (KPIL) Yeehaa, here we go ... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 At this point, it's just trying to confuse us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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