Iceresistance Posted November 21, 2021 Author Share Posted November 21, 2021 GEFS hinting something later towards possibly December, 18z GFS has jumped in with the GEFS, except it's earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 23, 2021 Author Share Posted November 23, 2021 The GFS model is getting me concerned for Early December, very consistent on an Active pattern with Winter Storms in December, but the problem is that it's not consistent for the Storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 24, 2021 Author Share Posted November 24, 2021 Forgot to add that the CFS model is still showing an active Winter Pattern for December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 You can't get the same kind of pattern as last year until/unless the WPO look changes. It bosses everything else around. Of course the CFS now has it changing for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 12Z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 6 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said: 12Z GFS... 18z GFS . . . O_O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 34 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: 18z GFS . . . O_O Yeah 18Z is nice for you. We just end up with our first freeze of the season here. Still fantasyland though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 Happy Thanksgiving Y'all, the 12z GFS is showing a powerful Cold Wave in Early December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 Many models are very consistent with the December Cold Blast, the only model that does not show it right now is the 12z CMC, even the 12z GEFS is showing a loose signal for snow in the Southern Plains from December 5th to December 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 28, 2021 Share Posted November 28, 2021 Although it was a roller coaster month and much cooler than October, November's still on track to be above average here in DFW.In fact, highs for the next 2 days to end the month will be 10+ degrees above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 28, 2021 Author Share Posted November 28, 2021 18z GFS is shoving the cold within 200 Hours, also faster compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 30, 2021 Author Share Posted November 30, 2021 11.30.2021 18z GEFS is showing a stronger signal for snow across the Southern Plains by Mid-December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 DFW ended up +1.3*F above average for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 1, 2021 Author Share Posted December 1, 2021 GEFS is still showing a good signal for snow in the Southern Plains next week. And most of the models are picking up the Stratwarm next week now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 15 hours ago, Iceresistance said: GEFS is still showing a good signal for snow in the Southern Plains next week. And most of the models are picking up the Stratwarm next week now. Be our luck it winds up being a crippling Ice Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 Just now, stormdragonwx said: Be our luck it winds up being a crippling Ice Storm. Not sure about that though, it's still a week away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 Need to watch Next Week & Next Weekend for snow, GFS & GEFS are in stronger agreement for snow during that time period, the areas that could have snow is Kansas, Oklahoma, NW Arkansas, & Panhandle & Northern Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 On 12/1/2021 at 6:28 AM, Powerball said: DFW ended up +1.3*F above average for November. I think we're close to a lock to break the latest freeze record which is Jan 4th (1972). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Well alrighty then... Mesoscale Discussion 1981 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0420 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 Areas affected...Northeast Texas...far southeast Oklahoma...and far southwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 102220Z - 102345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are possible across portions of the Arklatex. DISCUSSION...High based showers have developed along a dryline which has recently passed through Dallas. These showers are now moving into a more moisture rich airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s. This is yielding MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg beneath strong mid-level flow and effective shear in excess of 60 knots. Therefore, further intensification of these showers are possible. The threat will likely remain isolated, but the environment is quite favorable for supercells with an initial large hail threat with an increasing tornado threat with eastward extent. The isolated nature of any storm development may preclude the need for a watch, but if storm intensity is great enough or if more storms develop, a watch may be needed. ..Bentley/Grams.. 12/10/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33279692 34019584 34579457 34189338 33319365 32189491 31809694 31979759 33279692 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Just now, Powerball said: Well alrighty then... Mesoscale Discussion 1981 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0420 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 Areas affected...Northeast Texas...far southeast Oklahoma...and far southwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 102220Z - 102345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are possible across portions of the Arklatex. DISCUSSION...High based showers have developed along a dryline which has recently passed through Dallas. These showers are now moving into a more moisture rich airmass with dewpoints in the mid 60s. This is yielding MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg beneath strong mid-level flow and effective shear in excess of 60 knots. Therefore, further intensification of these showers are possible. The threat will likely remain isolated, but the environment is quite favorable for supercells with an initial large hail threat with an increasing tornado threat with eastward extent. The isolated nature of any storm development may preclude the need for a watch, but if storm intensity is great enough or if more storms develop, a watch may be needed. ..Bentley/Grams.. 12/10/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33279692 34019584 34579457 34189338 33319365 32189491 31809694 31979759 33279692 Severe Thunderstorm Warning TXC085-231-397-102330- /O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0274.211210T2243Z-211210T2330Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 443 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Rockwall County in north central Texas... Central Hunt County in north central Texas... Southeastern Collin County in north central Texas... * Until 530 PM CST. * At 443 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Fate, or near Rockwall, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Wylie, Rockwall, Greenville, Commerce, Royse City, Fate, Farmersville, Wolfe City, Caddo Mills, Celeste, Campbell, Mobile City, Lavon, McLendon-Chisholm, Nevada, Josephine and Neylandville. This includes Interstate 30 between mile markers 68 and 100. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3284 9643 3300 9652 3338 9610 3341 9586 3324 9586 TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 227DEG 43KT 3298 9640 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH $$ Gordon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Got a few DFW sites reporting gusts over 50 MPH right now. Pretty widespread 35 - 45 MPH gusts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 There's a chance DFW could go the entire month of December without a sub-50*F high, which would really be crazy (not sure that's ever happened before). Sunday, with a current forecast high in the upper 40s, might be our best shot. In fact, our "coldest" high to-date has only been 59*F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Yeah really disappointed in this winter so far. Up here in Fayetteville local TV mets are forecasting a high of 79 for Christmas being possible. Thats just wrong. I really hope things turn around in January and we finally get some winter storm systems but I think the same thing was said about December and we saw how that went. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 FWIW, the warmest December on record was back in 1933 (dust bowl era) with an average temp of 54*F.After yesterday (and the day before, which both had below normal daily averages), DFW's average temperature sits at 59.8*F.On top of that, DFW has ever recorded a December with average highs above 65*F, and right now it sits at 71*F.This isn't just a torch, it's an inferno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Just now, Powerball said: FWIW, the warmest December on record was back in 1933 (dust bowl era) with an average temp of 54*F.After yesterday (and the day before, which both had below normal daily averages), DFW's average temperature sits at 59.8*F.On top of that, DFW has ever recorded a December with average highs above 65*F, and right now it sits at 71*F.This isn't just a torch, it's an inferno. 12/19 did break the 50*F+ highs streak though, with only a high of 48*F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Crazy to think that DFW is looking at both an historially warm December and a historically warm February in the same year. Got both winter extreme covered, haha! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 Finally the big shift is near. Looks like the initial push of cold will come this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 The final monthly Decembers numbers for DFW are going to be some real clown shit, with nothing remotely comparable. Not even Satan himself could have conjured up this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 It's been awesome. Loved doing Christmas outdoors. Let's do it again next December! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 As of today, DFW has an average low of 50*F for the month of December.Unfortunately, this morning's low dipped down to 49*F. So the average will also dip back down ever so slightly. NYE's low will ultimately determine whether the average low ends up at/above 50*F or below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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