JoMo Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 18 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said: If that happens, we would get cold for a while. I believe we get cold early instead of later on. So many factors involved. Anyone making forecasts this early are completely guessing. Yeah, it's pretty much guesswork anyway, especially when it comes to individual systems which can make or break a "good winter" as far as snowfall goes. Cold and dry is boring. A weaker polar vortex would increase the risk for arctic air intrusions, but that doesn't always mean they'd be directed on our side of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 I've been researching to see whether it is common for severely cold (Plains centered) Februaries to be followed by cold February. It's a mixed bag, but there are definitely more back to back severe cold years than I expected. This is from the draft of my outlook for winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 I think it's a pretty good bet there will be high latitude blocking. -QBO. Coming out of a solar minimum. IO looking good. I'm hopeful. Not sure I want it after the disaster with the power grid last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 10 hours ago, Quixotic1 said: I think it's a pretty good bet there will be high latitude blocking. -QBO. Coming out of a solar minimum. IO looking good. I'm hopeful. Not sure I want it after the disaster with the power grid last winter. Its interesting we saw a -nao/ao most if not all last winter with a +qbo. Perhaps the SSW had something to do with it staying negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted September 24, 2021 Share Posted September 24, 2021 46 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said: Its interesting we saw a -nao/ao most if not all last winter with a +qbo. Perhaps the SSW had something to do with it staying negative Generally when you have a SSWE a -NAO/-AO results from it. I definitely think we could see some anomalous cold work its way into N TX again this winter. Chances are it won't be as extreme but I think some record setting days are possible. I actually just wrote up a blog highlighting my thoughts: https://weatherchest.weebly.com/home/archives/09-2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 I was looking more at the super-cold Plains centered Februaries today. You seem to have common look in November before those Februaries. Haven't really looked at the pre 1978 outbreaks. +WPO November +AO November +NAO November Didn't really see indication for commonality in other time frames. 1978, 1992, 1993, 2020 all had that signal though ahead of the nuclear cold dumps in February 1979, 1993, 1994, 2021. Nov WPO AO NAO 1978 +0.10 +2.47 +3.06 1992 +1.26 +0.72 +1.12 1993 +0.83 +1.00 +2.56 2020 +0.72 +2.09 +2.54 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 Really not buying this La Nina as a big deal at the surface. It's getting late fast for it to catch up to last year. To be fair, last year was one of the ten coldest events in Oct-Nov before it weakened. But it was a 25.58C La Nina in Dec-Feb. At the end of the day, I consider 25.50-26.00C La Ninas in winter to be weak. 25.0-25.5 is moderate. <25.0 is strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 14 hours ago, raindancewx said: Really not buying this La Nina as a big deal at the surface. It's getting late fast for it to catch up to last year. To be fair, last year was one of the ten coldest events in Oct-Nov before it weakened. But it was a 25.58C La Nina in Dec-Feb. At the end of the day, I consider 25.50-26.00C La Ninas in winter to be weak. 25.0-25.5 is moderate. <25.0 is strong. As you know raindance, we have seen weak niñas act like strong niñas and it was a blowtorch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 I'll link to my outlook here when I am done. I was checking overall snow patterns in the individual years yesterday. Each of the five analogs I am using had fluky deep-South snow events. The real crazy thing is they all are Northwest of the landfalling systems in the Gulf - typically Louisiana and Texas. My best guess is if there is a fluky deep-South snow event, the timing would be early December (12/1-12/10) or late January (1/21-1/31). We'll see. The snow map showing the fluky pattern will be in my outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 5, 2021 Author Share Posted October 5, 2021 I do want to mention that there is snow in NW Kansas next week from the 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Objective best matches for January-September highs and precipitation in Albuquerque heading into La Nina winters...rolled forward to February. Local blend of these six averages eight days 10F or colder, with two of the eight days 20F or colder. I'm warmer than this nationally, but it is fairly similar to what I have in my real analogs for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Too early to put stock into this but based upon my teleconnection analyses this forecast holds some merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 This is what I have for winter. It's 60 slides, but I promise lots of pictures and charts. https://t.co/qpg8wV8Cmw?amp=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 12, 2021 Author Share Posted October 12, 2021 47 minutes ago, raindancewx said: This is what I have for winter. It's 60 slides, but I promise lots of pictures and charts. https://t.co/qpg8wV8Cmw?amp=1 I can't see it . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 27, 2021 Author Share Posted October 27, 2021 All I can say for the 0z CMC is OH MY GOODNESS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 In general, La Ninas with ACE under 160 in the Atlantic tend to feature wetter conditions in the West in October, and overall for the cold season. It's nice to see Western October precipitation looking like 1974, 1984, 2016, rather than 1995, 2017, 2020, just as some examples off the top of my head. My main analogs were 1974 and 2017 for the winter - mostly because I doubt we'll be as wet as 1974, or as hot as 2017 in the West. As a blend though it seems pretty realistic given how the other factors are going, and I had a few other years in there to smooth out the strangeness of the blend. Under 160: ACE over 160: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 2, 2021 Author Share Posted November 2, 2021 Ryan Maue has put this concerning tweet (twit), mostly for Texas though Quote "The threat for climate-induced extreme winter storms again in Texas this winter remains very high & the state remains increasingly vulnerable to wobbling polar vortex "deep freeze". Double dip La Niña." I do believe that this Double Dip La Nina has caused the Polar Vortex to become unstable & spill somewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, but where is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 2, 2021 Author Share Posted November 2, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 7, 2021 Author Share Posted November 7, 2021 I do want to mention that the CFS is having unusual consistency on possible winter weather in the Central/Southern Plains in early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 9, 2021 Author Share Posted November 9, 2021 The GFS is consistently showing an active winter pattern across the Central & Southern Plains, but the timing & storms strength is not in full agreement yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 13, 2021 Author Share Posted November 13, 2021 First Freeze of the season, 30°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 15, 2021 Author Share Posted November 15, 2021 18z GFS has 2 Major Winter Storms for Thanksgiving week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 12z Euro model showing this at the end of the model run . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 Need to really keep an eye on Thanksgiving Week, the models are in general agreement (Now with the 18z GFS) with a chilly blast of cold air, the 12z Euro has a 9-12 inch snowstorm along I-44 from Chickasha to Missouri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Need to really keep an eye on Thanksgiving Week, the models are in general agreement (Now with the 18z GFS) with a chilly blast of cold air, the 12z Euro has a 9-12 inch snowstorm along I-44 from Chickasha to Missouri I think the Pacific being in not so good shape for delivering cold air, it will be a while for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 18, 2021 Author Share Posted November 18, 2021 2 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said: I think the Pacific being in not so good shape for delivering cold air, it will be a while for our area. Not for me, KFOR & the Euro are showing Snow for basically all of Oklahoma on Thanksgiving Day & Black Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 Tis the season for those fantasyland snowstorms. Granted I'm giving it a second look coming from the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 18, 2021 Author Share Posted November 18, 2021 The models do have a strong tendency to underestimate on how long the blocking pattern lasts, just like what happened in February 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 18, 2021 Author Share Posted November 18, 2021 12z GFS never materialized the cold for the Southern Plains on Thanksgiving, however, this is the same timeframe from the February 2021 Extreme Cold & Snow, when the models started lose some of the consistency before regaining it 24-48 hours before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 21, 2021 Author Share Posted November 21, 2021 AO & NAO much more positive than expected, snow is no longer expected for the Southern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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