Central PA - Fall 2021

[Itstrainingtime]

One thing that seems to be fairly common the past several years is "advertised" change in patterns take far longer than models initially indicate. It would not surprise me given recent history if we "lose" all of October before we see an actual pattern change. 

[Bubbler86]

Post nooners.  68, cloudy and blah. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

There will be some 80s next week around PA. 

 

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Will is a strong word when playing the weather model game (or weather game in general.)

In our area, "will" becomes the "way"  

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

One thing that seems to be fairly common the past several years is "advertised" change in patterns take far longer than models initially indicate. It would not surprise me given recent history if we "lose" all of October before we see an actual pattern change. 

That is true. It happens all the time delays and delays until the change.

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Post nooners.  68, cloudy and blah. 

I'll spot you a 10 on that one - 78 here and partly sunny. She's a wee bit uncomfortable out there. 

[Superstorm]

After next week, the whole county goes in a mix of a ridgy/cross continental flow but the results are not hot...just not cold either.   So some fall like weather just not winter. 

Typical transition in seasonal changes in my opinion.

Although there may be a couple real warm days when that WAR sticks it’s head out.


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[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

One thing that seems to be fairly common the past several years is "advertised" change in patterns take far longer than models initially indicate. It would not surprise me given recent history if we "lose" all of October before we see an actual pattern change. 

I am going to opine that I think around mid month, or a day or two after, we see some variability and some more "crisp" type evenings. It would be a pattern change at least in the aspect of some troughs rotating over us even if transient. 

[paweather]

72 Cloudy and as Bubbler said BLAH!

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

In our area, "will" becomes the "way"  

I will have to pepper will into my convo more often.  

[paweather]

What year is this "EL" or "LA"?

[WmsptWx]

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

One thing that seems to be fairly common the past several years is "advertised" change in patterns take far longer than models initially indicate. It would not surprise me given recent history if we "lose" all of October before we see an actual pattern change. 

There will likely be a pattern change...

 

In April. 

[Itstrainingtime]

19 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

There will likely be a pattern change...

 

In April. 

MU's new director of Meteorology sort of agrees with you:

Looking ahead into next week and beyond, the global, atmospheric pattern simply doesn't support any cool air spilling into the eastern U.S. A deep trough oscillating between Alaska and the West Coast of the U.S. may be even try to expand and deepen later next week. If this happens and my current thinking is correct, we'll likely make at least one or two more runs at the 80-degree mark sometime between October 12-19. At some point during the last 10-12 days of the month, I suspect we'll finally see at least one or two cooler shots of air take aim at the Eastern U.S... but how much "staying power" these have remains to be seen. With abnormally warm ocean waters in the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic and a large area of unusually cold ocean waters in the Gulf of Alaska, it's going to make it difficult to get any prolonged periods of unseasonably chilly air into the East for the foreseeable future. This could certainly be a big factor (in addition to La Nina) over the winter season, as well...

[paweather]

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU's new director of Meteorology sort of agrees with you:

Looking ahead into next week and beyond, the global, atmospheric pattern simply doesn't support any cool air spilling into the eastern U.S. A deep trough oscillating between Alaska and the West Coast of the U.S. may be even try to expand and deepen later next week. If this happens and my current thinking is correct, we'll likely make at least one or two more runs at the 80-degree mark sometime between October 12-19. At some point during the last 10-12 days of the month, I suspect we'll finally see at least one or two cooler shots of air take aim at the Eastern U.S... but how much "staying power" these have remains to be seen. With abnormally warm ocean waters in the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic and a large area of unusually cold ocean waters in the Gulf of Alaska, it's going to make it difficult to get any prolonged periods of unseasonably chilly air into the East for the foreseeable future. This could certainly be a big factor (in addition to La Nina) over the winter season, as well...

So we are a "LA" this winter thanks.

[Bubbler86]

Remember, its best to hold the laces up when punting.  

[paweather]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Remember, its best to hold the laces up when punting.  

Are you punting?

[Bubbler86]

Just now, paweather said:

Are you punting?

Not at all.  Its October 8th.  LOL.  But I do have some experience in said sport so thought I would help anyone who is going to give it a try. 

[Bubbler86]

10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU's new director of Meteorology sort of agrees with you:

Looking ahead into next week and beyond, the global, atmospheric pattern simply doesn't support any cool air spilling into the eastern U.S. A deep trough oscillating between Alaska and the West Coast of the U.S. may be even try to expand and deepen later next week. If this happens and my current thinking is correct, we'll likely make at least one or two more runs at the 80-degree mark sometime between October 12-19. At some point during the last 10-12 days of the month, I suspect we'll finally see at least one or two cooler shots of air take aim at the Eastern U.S... but how much "staying power" these have remains to be seen. With abnormally warm ocean waters in the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic and a large area of unusually cold ocean waters in the Gulf of Alaska, it's going to make it difficult to get any prolonged periods of unseasonably chilly air into the East for the foreseeable future. This could certainly be a big factor (in addition to La Nina) over the winter season, as well...

This pretty much jives with the current look of LR models which show a less "Indian summer" like pattern in 10 days or so. 

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not at all.  Its October 8th.  LOL.  But I do have some experience in said sport so thought I would help anyone who is going to give it a try. 

Yeah, it is early yet for sure.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

This pretty much jives with the current look of LR models which show a less "Indian summer" like pattern in 10 days or so. 

Exactly.

And I posted that just to share someone's opinion...I'm certainly NOT punting anything (except for a cool October) and I think we can still do well snowfall-wise in a Nina winter even if it's not the most likely outcome. 

All it takes is a couple of well-timed events. We've had some really good patterns over the past few winters that haven't produced because we couldn't time something up. 

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not at all.  Its October 8th.  LOL.  But I do have some experience in said sport so thought I would help anyone who is going to give it a try. 

As a former soccer keeper I'm familiar with punting but I never took the time to adjust the laces.  

[Itstrainingtime]

And, I'm punting every single European model output of big snows this winter if it's the only model showing it. 

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

 

 

As a former soccer keeper I'm familiar with punting but I never took the time to adjust the laces.  

At least not since they learned how to make soccer balls lace free :-) 

 

 

 

 

 

[TimB]

A departure pushing +7 already could balloon to +10 by mid-month. This talk/model trend about zonal/slight ridging probably means an average to slightly above second half (suppose that’s maybe +2). 10+2 = 12 / 2 = +6. That puts things in the ballpark of record territory for you guys. 

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

A departure pushing +7 already could balloon to +10 by mid-month. This talk/model trend about zonal/slight ridging probably means an average to slightly above second half (suppose that’s maybe +2). 10+2 = 12 / 2 = +6. That puts things in the ballpark of record territory for you guys. 

A record month with no high temps even remotely close to a record?  (No low temps so far either though the records a bit closer to what MDT has come in at so far).  FWIW, on the month we are currently near a +3 departure in the 'Ville.  Highs have been below normal 3 days this week here.  Lows have been 5-7 degrees too high.  Central LSV is the one suffering the most. 

[Bubbler86]

48 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

A departure pushing +7 already could balloon to +10 by mid-month. This talk/model trend about zonal/slight ridging probably means an average to slightly above second half (suppose that’s maybe +2). 10+2 = 12 / 2 = +6. That puts things in the ballpark of record territory for you guys. 

12Z EC back to its more defined trough for 8-10 days out.  Definitely transient but flipping and flopping some. 

[Bubbler86]

55 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

A record month with no high temps even remotely close to a record?  (No low temps so far either though the records a bit closer to what MDT has come in at so far).  FWIW, on the month we are currently near a +3 departure in the 'Ville.  Highs have been below normal 3 days this week here.  Lows have been 5-7 degrees too high.  Central LSV is the one suffering the most. 

Just went and checked my numbers on this and the closest MDT has come to a record high or low temp, this month, has been 4 degrees on 10-6 when the low was 65 with the record being 69.  As mentioned the highs have been no where near records with one day this week being 22 degrees under the record. I think one day they got within 7.     

[canderson]

77 again - but it's not quite as humid at least. Dewpoint is 60. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Just went and checked my numbers on this and the closest MDT has come to a record high or low temp, this month, has been 4 degrees on 10-6 when the low was 65 with the record being 69.  As mentioned the highs have been no where near records with one day this week being 22 degrees under the record. I think one day they got within 7.     

Saw on local tv station other day the daily records spread at MDT was high 93 and low 32.   That’s impressive and 2 totally different extremes. Heavy frost and 20’s for sure in the rural areas one year and 93 and summer another.   

[Cashtown_Coop]

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

77 again - but it's not quite as humid at least. Dewpoint is 60. 

72 here.   Feels nice out 

[Superstorm]

Just went and checked my numbers on this and the closest MDT has come to a record high or low temp, this month, has been 4 degrees on 10-6 when the low was 65 with the record being 69.  As mentioned the highs have been no where near records with one day this week being 22 degrees under the record. I think one day they got within 7.     

Ain’t gonna get record highs with this much humidity.

You may have a chance to get record high minimums, though.


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