Streak Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Has winter been cancelled? LOL According to the MA forum, yes. (lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 6, 2021 Share Posted October 6, 2021 Just now, Streak said: According to the MA forum, yes. That must mean it's over. They have an unparalleled history of being on the mark every time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 6, 2021 Author Share Posted October 6, 2021 74/67. It’s gross. Again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Just another abnormally warm and humid october. Kinda sick of it. And no this is not normal even though it's been like this for the past decade or so. Hopefully this is just a multi-decadal type of pattern but I'm starting to believe that less and less. Hopefully things aren't stuck like this permanently. The thing I hate most is when it gets hot like this it just shoots straight into very cold temps instead of gradually climbing down. But yeah the low temps are the most puzzling thing to me. They have just skyrocketed over the past few decades compared to previous times. I know development like cement and buildings retain heat so they warm areas up at night but that doesn't fully explain other locations. Lows have been in the 60s for a few days now and the next 10 days are going to have a low around 60 which is at least 13 or more degrees above the average. And when you look at averages it could easily be in the upper 30s if it was cooler than average right now. Honestly sucks lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 2 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said: Just another abnormally warm and humid october. Kinda sick of it. And no this is not normal even though it's been like this for the past decade or so. Hopefully this is just a multi-decadal type of pattern but I'm starting to believe that less and less. Hopefully things aren't stuck like this permanently. The thing I hate most is when it gets hot like this it just shoots straight into very cold temps instead of gradually climbing down. But yeah the low temps are the most puzzling thing to me. They have just skyrocketed over the past few decades compared to previous times. I know development like cement and buildings retain heat so they warm areas up at night but that doesn't fully explain other locations. Lows have been in the 60s for a few days now and the next 10 days are going to have a low around 60 which is at least 13 or more degrees above the average. And when you look at averages it could easily be in the upper 30s if it was cooler than average right now. Honestly sucks lol yeah its rather crazy to think that for the next week that we will not see a nighttime/daytime temp swing of > 15-25 deg, but if one looks at overnighters, your statement is correct. In keeping hope alive, our first shot at autumn looms post D8-9 as we look to change the regime to a rather boring/zonal one as UL ridging turns into a pancake, and verbatim it extends through the rest of the Ens runs. GEPS a little less bullish, but overall consensus seems to be headed that way. I'll take some boring W/E flow any day over the sticky shit.... I've really...really had my fill of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 11 hours ago, canderson said: 74/67. It’s gross. Again. 4 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said: Just another abnormally warm and humid october. Kinda sick of it. And no this is not normal even though it's been like this for the past decade or so. Hopefully this is just a multi-decadal type of pattern but I'm starting to believe that less and less. Hopefully things aren't stuck like this permanently. The thing I hate most is when it gets hot like this it just shoots straight into very cold temps instead of gradually climbing down. But yeah the low temps are the most puzzling thing to me. They have just skyrocketed over the past few decades compared to previous times. I know development like cement and buildings retain heat so they warm areas up at night but that doesn't fully explain other locations. Lows have been in the 60s for a few days now and the next 10 days are going to have a low around 60 which is at least 13 or more degrees above the average. And when you look at averages it could easily be in the upper 30s if it was cooler than average right now. Honestly sucks lol 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: yeah its rather crazy to think that for the next week that we will not see a nighttime/daytime temp swing of > 15-25 deg, but if one looks at overnighters, your statement is correct. In keeping hope alive, our first shot at autumn looms post D8-9 as we look to change the regime to a rather boring/zonal one as UL ridging turns into a pancake, and verbatim it extends through the rest of the Ens runs. GEPS a little less bullish, but overall consensus seems to be headed that way. I'll take some boring W/E flow any day over the sticky shit.... I've really...really had my fill of it. you 3 have summed it up with the bolded! Put me in your camp of not happy about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Another random October. Check out those highs. The lows were "better" but still it did not get into the low 40's until the 17th. Hard to argue that the lows have been not good recently. 61 here this AM. 1973-10-01 70 48 59.0 -2.8 6 0 T 0.0 0 1973-10-02 70 60 65.0 3.6 0 0 0.71 0.0 0 1973-10-03 78 61 69.5 8.5 0 5 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-04 82 54 68.0 7.5 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-05 76 55 65.5 5.4 0 1 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-06 72 45 58.5 -1.2 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-07 67 46 56.5 -2.8 8 0 T 0.0 0 1973-10-08 74 55 64.5 5.6 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-09 70 59 64.5 6.0 0 0 T 0.0 0 1973-10-10 72 57 64.5 6.4 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-11 65 56 60.5 2.8 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-12 70 52 61.0 3.7 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-13 73 51 62.0 5.1 3 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-14 73 56 64.5 8.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-15 76 52 64.0 7.9 1 0 0.02 0.0 0 1973-10-16 63 45 54.0 -1.7 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-17 57 41 49.0 -6.4 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-18 55 40 47.5 -7.5 17 0 T 0.0 0 1973-10-19 59 38 48.5 -6.1 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-20 70 46 58.0 3.8 7 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-21 62 38 50.0 -3.9 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-22 67 36 51.5 -2.0 13 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-23 67 40 53.5 0.4 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-24 72 41 56.5 3.7 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-25 72 40 56.0 3.6 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-26 73 41 57.0 4.9 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-27 69 47 58.0 6.3 7 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-28 57 42 49.5 -1.8 15 0 T 0.0 0 1973-10-29 58 44 51.0 0.0 14 0 1.67 0.0 0 1973-10-30 50 38 44.0 -6.6 21 0 T 0.0 0 1973-10-31 57 34 45.5 -4.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Another random October. Check out those highs. The lows were "better" but still it did not get into the low 40's until the 17th. Hard to argue that the lows have been not good recently/ 1973-10-01 70 48 59.0 -2.8 6 0 T 0.0 0 1973-10-02 70 60 65.0 3.6 0 0 0.71 0.0 0 1973-10-03 78 61 69.5 8.5 0 5 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-04 82 54 68.0 7.5 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-05 76 55 65.5 5.4 0 1 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-06 72 45 58.5 -1.2 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-07 67 46 56.5 -2.8 8 0 T 0.0 0 1973-10-08 74 55 64.5 5.6 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-09 70 59 64.5 6.0 0 0 T 0.0 0 1973-10-10 72 57 64.5 6.4 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-11 65 56 60.5 2.8 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-12 70 52 61.0 3.7 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-13 73 51 62.0 5.1 3 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-14 73 56 64.5 8.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-15 76 52 64.0 7.9 1 0 0.02 0.0 0 1973-10-16 63 45 54.0 -1.7 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-17 57 41 49.0 -6.4 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-18 55 40 47.5 -7.5 17 0 T 0.0 0 1973-10-19 59 38 48.5 -6.1 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-20 70 46 58.0 3.8 7 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-21 62 38 50.0 -3.9 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-22 67 36 51.5 -2.0 13 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-23 67 40 53.5 0.4 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-24 72 41 56.5 3.7 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-25 72 40 56.0 3.6 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-26 73 41 57.0 4.9 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-27 69 47 58.0 6.3 7 0 0.00 0.0 0 1973-10-28 57 42 49.5 -1.8 15 0 T 0.0 0 1973-10-29 58 44 51.0 0.0 14 0 1.67 0.0 0 1973-10-30 50 38 44.0 -6.6 21 0 T 0.0 0 1973-10-31 57 34 45.5 -4.8 But 4 days the whole month where the high exceeded 75 and two where the low exceeded 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 17 minutes ago, TimB84 said: But 4 days the whole month where the high exceeded 75 and two where the low exceeded 60. Definitely extra warm lows right now but that 1973 list is not crisp fall weather either. I am in the camp that it is getting warmer as an overall average but I am not in the camp that this is end of the world warm October anymore. Its warmer than the normal but its well within range of what other warm Octobers have seen recently (look at 2013 for example...or 2007...or 1995.) If it is like this end of month, then we are into something that has not happened recently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Sum 2099 1487 - - 281 69 3.75 0.0 - Average 67.7 48.0 57.8 2.0 - - - - 0.0 Normal 65.7 46.0 55.8 - 300 16 3.81 0.2 - 1954-10-01 85 70 77.5 15.7 0 13 0.02 0.0 0 1954-10-02 81 67 74.0 12.6 0 9 0.07 0.0 0 1954-10-03 81 63 72.0 11.0 0 7 0.01 0.0 0 1954-10-04 79 69 74.0 13.5 0 9 0.02 0.0 0 1954-10-05 74 58 66.0 5.9 0 1 0.32 0.0 0 1954-10-06 60 45 52.5 -7.2 12 0 0.82 0.0 0 1954-10-07 56 36 46.0 -13.3 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-08 61 31 46.0 -12.9 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-09 73 47 60.0 1.5 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-10 76 55 65.5 7.4 0 1 T 0.0 0 1954-10-11 85 53 69.0 11.3 0 4 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-12 88 61 74.5 17.2 0 10 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-13 85 61 73.0 16.1 0 8 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-14 79 64 71.5 15.0 0 7 T 0.0 0 1954-10-15 75 52 63.5 7.4 1 0 1.57 0.0 0 1954-10-16 60 45 52.5 -3.2 12 0 T 0.0 0 1954-10-17 57 40 48.5 -6.9 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-18 60 37 48.5 -6.5 16 0 0.02 0.0 0 1954-10-19 54 44 49.0 -5.6 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-20 51 38 44.5 -9.7 20 0 T 0.0 0 1954-10-21 60 39 49.5 -4.4 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-22 60 41 50.5 -3.0 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-23 71 39 55.0 1.9 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-24 74 51 62.5 9.7 2 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-25 67 42 54.5 2.1 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-26 70 45 57.5 5.4 7 0 0.05 0.0 0 1954-10-27 71 46 58.5 6.8 6 0 0.21 0.0 0 1954-10-28 58 39 48.5 -2.8 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-29 55 42 48.5 -2.5 16 0 0.38 0.0 0 1954-10-30 48 37 42.5 -8.1 22 0 0.26 0.0 0 1954-10-31 45 30 37.5 -12.8 27 0 T 0.0 0 Reliable observation times are not avai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Definitely extra warm lows right now but that 1973 list is not crisp fall weather either. I am in the camp that it is getting warmer as an overall average but I am not in the camp that this is end of the world warm October anymore. Its warmer than the normal but its well within range of what other warm Octobers have seen recently (look at 2013 for example...or 2007...or 1995.) If it is like this end of month then we are into something that has not happened recently. Anytime you’re comparing an October to 2007 it can’t be good. 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Sum 2099 1487 - - 281 69 3.75 0.0 - Average 67.7 48.0 57.8 2.0 - - - - 0.0 Normal 65.7 46.0 55.8 - 300 16 3.81 0.2 - 1954-10-01 85 70 77.5 15.7 0 13 0.02 0.0 0 1954-10-02 81 67 74.0 12.6 0 9 0.07 0.0 0 1954-10-03 81 63 72.0 11.0 0 7 0.01 0.0 0 1954-10-04 79 69 74.0 13.5 0 9 0.02 0.0 0 1954-10-05 74 58 66.0 5.9 0 1 0.32 0.0 0 1954-10-06 60 45 52.5 -7.2 12 0 0.82 0.0 0 1954-10-07 56 36 46.0 -13.3 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-08 61 31 46.0 -12.9 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-09 73 47 60.0 1.5 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-10 76 55 65.5 7.4 0 1 T 0.0 0 1954-10-11 85 53 69.0 11.3 0 4 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-12 88 61 74.5 17.2 0 10 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-13 85 61 73.0 16.1 0 8 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-14 79 64 71.5 15.0 0 7 T 0.0 0 1954-10-15 75 52 63.5 7.4 1 0 1.57 0.0 0 1954-10-16 60 45 52.5 -3.2 12 0 T 0.0 0 1954-10-17 57 40 48.5 -6.9 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-18 60 37 48.5 -6.5 16 0 0.02 0.0 0 1954-10-19 54 44 49.0 -5.6 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-20 51 38 44.5 -9.7 20 0 T 0.0 0 1954-10-21 60 39 49.5 -4.4 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-22 60 41 50.5 -3.0 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-23 71 39 55.0 1.9 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-24 74 51 62.5 9.7 2 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-25 67 42 54.5 2.1 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-26 70 45 57.5 5.4 7 0 0.05 0.0 0 1954-10-27 71 46 58.5 6.8 6 0 0.21 0.0 0 1954-10-28 58 39 48.5 -2.8 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1954-10-29 55 42 48.5 -2.5 16 0 0.38 0.0 0 1954-10-30 48 37 42.5 -8.1 22 0 0.26 0.0 0 1954-10-31 45 30 37.5 -12.8 27 0 T 0.0 0 Reliable observation times are not avai This one looks like it might have actually been plagued with the high DP problems early in the month and then again mid-month, looks a lot wetter than the 1973 month that had a 26 day almost completely dry stretch. It also had a nice break in the heat with a freeze on tomorrow’s date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, TimB84 said: This one looks like it might have actually been plagued with the high DP problems early in the month and then again mid-month, looks a lot wetter than the 1973 month that had a 26 day almost completely dry stretch. It also had a nice break in the heat with a freeze on tomorrow’s date. Yea, lots of variables in these different months. Then there is this one below which is downright ugly until it breaks on the 12th. Not really breaking down the whys just posting that even though most of us agree that it is warmer now than in the past (stats bear it out), there have been plenty of warm Octobers before and during our lifespans. Not just in the 2000's. I could post just as many Octobers where it stayed below 70 almost the whole month and had freezing night time lows. Unfortunately, we did not draw that lot so far. Trough forming in the west right now so we are not going to be happy until that translates east. Most people did not have A/C when this happened. 1959-10-01 78 68 73.0 11.2 0 8 0.71 0.0 0 1959-10-02 77 61 69.0 7.6 0 4 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-03 71 63 67.0 6.0 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-04 87 59 73.0 12.5 0 8 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-05 90 64 77.0 16.9 0 12 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-06 88 66 77.0 17.3 0 12 T 0.0 0 1959-10-07 79 65 72.0 12.7 0 7 0.04 0.0 0 1959-10-08 79 61 70.0 11.1 0 5 0.79 0.0 0 1959-10-09 83 68 75.5 17.0 0 11 0.03 0.0 0 1959-10-10 73 60 66.5 8.4 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-11 79 59 69.0 11.3 0 4 T 0.0 0 1959-10-12 64 46 55.0 -2.3 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-13 60 43 51.5 -5.4 13 0 0.27 0.0 0 1959-10-14 52 47 49.5 -7.0 15 0 0.19 0.0 0 1959-10-15 60 42 51.0 -5.1 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-16 65 36 50.5 -5.2 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-17 74 42 58.0 2.6 7 0 T 0.0 0 1959-10-18 62 42 52.0 -3.0 13 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-19 55 34 44.5 -10.1 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-20 72 36 54.0 -0.2 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-21 55 43 49.0 -4.9 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-22 56 43 49.5 -4.0 15 0 0.41 0.0 0 1959-10-23 70 48 59.0 5.9 6 0 0.19 0.0 0 1959-10-24 68 51 59.5 6.7 5 0 1.00 0.0 0 1959-10-25 60 43 51.5 -0.9 13 0 0.04 0.0 0 1959-10-26 55 43 49.0 -3.1 16 0 0.03 0.0 0 1959-10-27 52 43 47.5 -4.2 17 0 0.07 0.0 0 1959-10-28 53 34 43.5 -7.8 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-29 52 29 40.5 -10.5 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-30 56 33 44.5 -6.1 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 1959-10-31 61 49 55.0 4.7 10 0 0.40 0.0 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 we may squeak by Saturday without rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Doing some more old fashioned weather forecasting, check out the 12Z 10-19 GFS prediction. At this point we have transitioned away from the ridge dominated pattern and there is a moderate trough in the east. But there is no "cold air" so it gets cooler and temps are below normal but no hounds of winter cold to drain over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Definitely extra warm lows right now but that 1973 list is not crisp fall weather either. I am in the camp that it is getting warmer as an overall average but I am not in the camp that this is end of the world warm October anymore. Its warmer than the normal but its well within range of what other warm Octobers have seen recently (look at 2013 for example...or 2007...or 1995.) If it is like this end of month, then we are into something that has not happened recently. To add, if we remove the humidity, there would be a lot less bitching and worrying about temp departures from normal. 75 and no humidity....where can i sign? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 38 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Doing some more old fashioned weather forecasting, check out the 12Z 10-19 GFS prediction. At this point we have transitioned away from the ridge dominated pattern and there is a moderate trough in the east. But there is no "cold air" so it gets cooler and temps are below normal but no hounds of winter cold to drain over us. look north. its coming. Finish the loop and watch the trough get forced under. 4 days later, its deep autumn. Blue precip east of the Miss. as well. Mind you this is parsing a 300hr panel of an op run, but even Ens guidance blows the stickies back to bermuda...where they belong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 For what it’s worth, which is admittedly not much: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Just now, TimB84 said: For what it’s worth, which is admittedly not much: queing blizz and paweather in 3.... 2.... 1... hehe. Even if it is a false positive, it tells us were getting closer and thats good enough for this guy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: queing blizz and paweather in 3.... 2.... 1... hehe. Even if it is a false positive, it tells us were getting closer and thats good enough for this guy. If we do not get real fall weather the second half of October, I will be really surprised. In all those Octobers I looked through, doing some years in a row then jumping to another decade so a bit random, none had wall to wall above average. The ones that started like this October always relented to the season the second half of the month. Did not look at every single month but law of averages is on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said: queing blizz and paweather in 3.... 2.... 1... hehe. Even if it is a false positive, it tells us were getting closer and thats good enough for this guy. The digital snowstorm of 9/29 would like a word with you. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 You can call it normal or above normal, one thing this week definitely has been is "more of the same" Several days in a row now where there has been only very insignificant changes in sky appearance, high temps and low temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 33 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If we do not get real fall weather the second half of October, I will be really surprised. In all those Octobers I looked through, doing some years in a row then jumping to another decade so a bit random, none had wall to wall above average. The ones that started like this October always relented to the season the second half of the month. Did not look at every single month but law of averages is on our side. I think you'll end up right. Even if the zonal flow being advertised comes, the occasional blue bowling ball (like the one Tims snow comes from) will make for a much more autumnal feel for us here in the east. See the blues blowing up out west w/ the upper air pattern moving forward tells us just to be patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I think you'll end up right. Even if the zonal flow being advertised comes, the occasional blue bowling ball (like the one Tims snow comes from) will make for a much more autumnal feel for us here in the east. See the blues blowing up out west w/ the upper air pattern moving forward tells us just to be patient. Was reading NWS Phoenix’s forecast discussion last evening and it implied that if the low temp drops below 55 next week (which is likely) they’ll be nearly 3 weeks ahead of schedule for their first sub-55 low per 1991-2020 climo. That’s an anomalous trough any way you slice it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 27 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I think you'll end up right. Even if the zonal flow being advertised comes, the occasional blue bowling ball (like the one Tims snow comes from) will make for a much more autumnal feel for us here in the east. See the blues blowing up out west w/ the upper air pattern moving forward tells us just to be patient. The TimB Fall Snow of 2021. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 59 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Was reading NWS Phoenix’s forecast discussion last evening and it implied that if the low temp drops below 55 next week (which is likely) they’ll be nearly 3 weeks ahead of schedule for their first sub-55 low per 1991-2020 climo. That’s an anomalous trough any way you slice it. absolutely. It cant be cold everywhere at once, and we just need a pattern flip to get our turn. Wouldnt expect a permanent flip, but transient cold fronts is what normal autumn is all about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 38 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The TimB Fall Snow of 2021. He posted the snowmap first....so if it happens, he gets his name on it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: absolutely. It cant be cold everywhere at once, and we just need a pattern flip to get our turn. Wouldnt expect a permanent flip, but transient cold fronts is what normal autumn is all about. My A/C has not run much at all the last few weeks. Enjoying the lower bills. With that said, it has run so still not fall weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 1 hour ago, TimB84 said: Was reading NWS Phoenix’s forecast discussion last evening and it implied that if the low temp drops below 55 next week (which is likely) they’ll be nearly 3 weeks ahead of schedule for their first sub-55 low per 1991-2020 climo. That’s an anomalous trough any way you slice it. I love to read AFD from other offices. Reno, Melbourne, and Taunton are some of my favorites. I'll have to check out the Phoenix office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: My A/C has not shut off much at all the last few weeks. Enjoying the automated monthly budget bills. With that said, it continues to run so still not dead winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 7, 2021 Share Posted October 7, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: I love having the sub $100 bills in fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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